Early-Round Busts In 2025 Rookie Dynasty Fantasy Football Drafts

February 10, 2025

John Johnson of RotoBaller breaks down early-round busts in 2025 Dynasty fantasy football leagues. Which players should be avoided in the first and second round?

It's incredibly unpopular to say that rookies, who many Dynasty fantasy football managers are excited about, will bust and not be worth their picks. The problem is that it happens every year. Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. is a prime example of this.

While he had plenty of chances to develop into a better WR, it's obvious by now that it was not worth keeping the first overall pick in a class with Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Bucky Irving, Jayden Daniels, and Bo Nix. It was a far better strategy to trade back, in hindsight.

And depending on where your spot is in rookie drafts, that can be a very good idea. "Reaching" is another option, though many have an incredibly hard time doing that. This is funny because if you had "reached" for Thomas early in the first round, the result would have been fantastic. So, let's break down early-round picks with bust potential

Notes About The 2025 NFL Draft Class For Dynasty

First, we should start by mentioning that the quarterback and wide receiver classes are very weak. The running back class is ridiculously stacked, though. The tight end group is also strong. It follows, reasonably, that there should be plenty of RBs picked early in drafts and the WRs and QBs left for later, with TEs sprinkled in as their skill warrants.

A quick look at FantasyPros Dynasty rookie rankings for 2025 shows that this truth is completely ignored, though. This presents a massive value proposition for Dynasty managers. Rather than picking receivers that are, for some reason, pushed way up the board despite this class being terrible relative to other years, you should lean into the depth of the class of backs.

2025 Running Back Class. Loaded. #NFLDraft pic.twitter.com/lOU9bJL4TF

— Ray G (@RayGQue) January 1, 2025

There are nine WRs in the top 20 as opposed to just six RBs. That's ridiculous. Luckily for you, that means you can get amazing prospects with your later-round picks. You can probably see where this is going -- there are a lot of very overrated receivers in comparison to the backs.

WR Tetairoa McMillan

The top receiver in the 2025 NFL Draft class, according to consensus, is former Arizona Wildcats WR Tetairoa McMillan. To take him over Ashton Jeanty is a serious mistake, yet McMillan keeps rising up rookie draft boards, perhaps due to the ubiquity of PPR leagues.

To do this, I segmented receivers into groups based on CTPRR above/below 4%, and their UTPRR above/below 20%. The findings are pretty stark!

I determined hit rate based on max PPG season as well as max dynasty value vs. drafted value.

As expected, the elite target earners… pic.twitter.com/7zl49hJeWS

— Dynasty Zoltan (@DynastyZoltanFF) December 7, 2024

Separating from coverage is the most important thing a wide receiver can do. The receivers who get wide open on the most routes and don't have bricks for hands will generally be the most successful in the NFL, all other things equal. It's thus a big red flag that McMillan earns a high rate of contested targets, meaning the opposing defender is in his face when the ball gets to him.

No receiver in the NFL consistently wins contested catches. The defenders are too athletic, too fast, and hit too hard for that to happen. McMillan's size is an asset for his length, but he weighs just 212 pounds. It's likely that his game will be hindered by his separation struggles.

Looks like someone else has noticed some of the negatives in Tet McMillans game pic.twitter.com/brsbzyjmE4

— H (@DynastyBuffs) February 4, 2025

There is nothing here saying he's a bad player. Though his fans and supporters might think so, the intent here is not to bash him.

But sometimes, the excitement around tall receivers (i.e., the comparisons to him and Mike Evans and Drake London, who were much better separators) can cloud Dynasty managers' judgment. Becoming infatuated with an idea of what a player can be can cause you to ignore what he actually is.

The tape of him dominating poor defensive schemes and unathletic defensive backs that will never sniff the inside of an NFL locker room during the regular season doesn't help with this evaluation. McMillan's negatives are being heavily glossed over by an avalanche of praise. Thus, this is the way the WR1 of each class is usually treated.

📼TAPE TIME📼
WR Tetairoa McMillan
Arizona

❌THE BAD❌#scouting #NFLDraft #Arizona #DallasCowboys pic.twitter.com/RsOK2SC6vY

— Mike Poland (@kenfigkowboy) January 27, 2025

One of the biggest issues I saw on his tape was the lack of urgency and trickery with some of his routes. Not selling the wrong route to the defender in the NFL shuts down a big part of your game and leads to very inconsistent play. And one of the knocks on TMac is his lack of consistency. Sure, it's a problem he can work on and fix.

But a player with clear negatives, such as the ones in the two X posts above, isn't someone you want with the first pick. It's probably better to trade down. McMillan can have a solid career in the league and still not be worth this pick. He's overrated.

WR Luther Burden III

An extensive review of Burden's tape isn't supportive of his ranking as the third-overall rookie in this class. Burden lacks refined route-running skills, and while his athleticism after the catch is impressive, it's incredibly difficult to win at the next level without a good release package and proficiency with a wide range of routes.

When you see Luther burden at the bottom of these metrics, does it concern you @DevyEusuf pic.twitter.com/a8BhqTto2q

— Katakuri (@ausvano) February 5, 2025

An utter lack of consistency shows up in his advanced metrics as well, which is always a red flag. Thomas, the receiver from the Jaguars, showed us that one possible excuse for poor efficiency is the presence of another elite receiver. Burden doesn't have that excuse.

#Mizzou WR Luther Burden III (5-11, 208)

Dynamic, versatile weapon. Tackle breaking machine. Excellent play strength leads to comfort with making contested catches. pic.twitter.com/AMkNPZ8VS9

— Jordan Reid (@Jordan_Reid) June 6, 2024

He has a particular skill set that makes him a gadget player with a little bit more upside if he can improve on his routes. The problem is that taking him with the third overall pick in rookie drafts is just ridiculous. You expect a complete WR here, yet he's a developmental prospect as it stands.

This isn't an indictment of him as a player, but the rankings of this class are just absurd. He wouldn't even rank in the top six of last year's rookie receiver prospects. Nearly every draft profile includes negatives about his route-running and ability to beat press coverage. Those are crucial skills for a WR to have.

He's a fine player to pick later in the first. At the top? No.

RB Kaleb Johnson

Though the running back class is stacked, Johnson stands out like a sore thumb as one of the least athletic and versatile of the RBs this season. He was on a team with elite run-blocking, though. Nearly all of his highlights feature him easily running through gaping holes at the line of scrimmage.

He did very little that his blocks didn't set him up for, though. And many of his huge plays just don't happen at the next level. It's easy to praise players for absurd-looking plays, but it's essential to view them through a "will this actually happen in the NFL" lens as much as possible.

I feel bad for all the make a wish kids Kaleb Johnson ran over 🙏 pic.twitter.com/1NdSeTrj70

— Iowan Stallion (@IowanStallion) January 7, 2025

An NFL linebacker who doesn't make this tackle won't be on the team in short order.

I really love the patience I see on film from Kaleb Johnson (#Iowa RB).

He’s consistently waiting for blocks to develop. He plays with a calm demeanour.

I see a little bit of Mixon/Mostert to his game, and welcoming better comps. pic.twitter.com/TrN87kWL9g

— SCOUTD (@scoutdnfl) December 14, 2024

Patience is a virtue, but if the elite blocking isn't there at the next level, it's not good for much. Johnson is not an explosive athlete relative to the other RBs in this class -- he possesses 4.5 speed, while there are at least six other backs that run in the 4.4s or faster.

Kaleb Johnson... Poetry in motion... pic.twitter.com/xFaH8DhAaD

— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) December 10, 2024

It's strange that his extensive highlight reel shows very little lateral agility. Instead, he's often waiting for his blocks to develop nicely, then going through green grass relatively untouched. It's easy to fall in love with his excellent production, but remember that football is a team sport.

Don't overlook #UCF RB RJ Harvey in this draft class. Over the last two years, he and Ashton Jeanty rank 1st and 2nd in several stats:

Carries of 10+ yds: Harvey (97), Jeanty (92)
Carries of 20+ yds: Harvey (35), Jeanty (35)
Rushing TDs: Jeanty (42), Harvey (38) pic.twitter.com/80CKVYJiHj

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) December 3, 2024

It's extremely easy to find other RBs that show more on one play than Johnson shows on 10. UCF running back RJ Harvey shows better speed, burst, acceleration, lateral agility, and hip flexibility than Johnson. The situation often dictates a player's production, though.

Harvey was more efficient on a worse offense with a much worse offensive line. Johnson is simply not the No. 2 back in this stacked class. His skill set and athleticism aren't elite, and the offensive line creates most of his explosive plays rather than incredible efforts.

He's overrated in a class that is loaded with RB talent.

RB Quinshon Judkins

There are several things NFL running backs have to do to succeed at the next level. One of them is having the lateral agility to be able to make defenders miss. Judkins lacks this to an astounding degree. His size, speed, and burst are impressive, but the stiffness of his hips stands out massively on tape.

You cannot bull-rush and run over NFL defenders like you can in college. The athletic mismatches between college players are stark at times in college. Judkins has fantastic strength for a running back and is a great downhill runner, though.

Quinshon Judkins is the RB for teams that need a physical downhill force.

He PUNISHES defenders who don’t bring everything they’ve got. 🚂

With the right fit, he could develop into a legit three-down back.#NFLDraft #OhioStateFootball pic.twitter.com/B9aVAihLmZ

— Alex NFL (@ajjnfl) February 4, 2025

Again, the major problem here is his draft spot. You'd prefer not to draft anyone with glaring weaknesses in the first round. He's a downfield runner who tries to bull through tacklers head-on because he can't juke them, even in college. That's solid as a committee back but not as a workhorse who you want, taking all the touches.

QUINSHON JUDKINS PUNCHES IT IN FOR THE LEAD 🔥pic.twitter.com/mrRnVpng8O

— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) January 11, 2025

And it was obvious when looking at his splits. He averaged under 5.0 yards per carry in eight of his games last season despite splitting backfield work with TreVeyon Henderson -- generally, RBs with smaller workloads are much fresher and, thus, much more efficient.

There are a plethora of RBs who aren't ranked in the top 12 who were much more consistent and put up monster numbers -- Dylan Sampson, RJ Harvey, Bhayshul Tuten, and Brashard Smith are all examples. All of them are better players than Judkins, and they have proved it on the field.

I broke those players down in this article. It's worth a read if you think the above statement is ludicrous. Those four guys are league-winning picks in redraft, though, so you should really pick some of them up in Dynasty.

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