Pitchers: Spring Training ADP Risers and Fallers for Fantasy Baseball Drafts (2024)

March 23, 2024

Corbin Young examines several fantasy baseball pitchers who have seen their average draft position (ADP) rise or fall over the past two weeks.

Last time, we examined hitter risers and fallers in ADP. Now, we'll look at pitcher risers and fallers. The ADP market is sharp, but it doesn't mean we should automatically align with a riser or faller.

One quick example came from my previous article. Wyatt Langford kept climbing closer to his teammate Evan Carter in ADP, but it doesn't mean we should fade the rising cost for Langford if the skills and playing time exist.

We have so many players in fantasy baseball, so it's hard to find time to examine each in depth. However, let's look at the pitchers' skills and profiles to see if we should target or fade them at their ADP. We'll look at middle- to late-round pitchers to target whether we agree or disagree with the ADP ups and downs. If you want more pitcher examination, check out the starting pitcher surprises and concerns based on ATC Projections. 

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Pitcher Risers

Bailey Ober - Minnesota Twins

ADP Riser: Up 19 Spots

The Twins' starting pitcher is no longer a sleeper after flashing those consistent control skills with some strikeout upside. After the team kept him in the minors last season, Bailey Ober proved he deserved a spot in the rotation. Ober had an above-average 33.2 percent ball rate with a career-best swinging strike rate of 14.6 percent.

His slider and changeup have been the most consistent offerings for whiffs. Ober's changeup elicited a 16 percent swinging-strike rate, with the slider at 14.2 percent. Though the changeup and slider dropped about two percentage points, his four-seamer increased by over three points in swinging strike rate to 13.7 percent.

Ober's four-seamer is notable because he uses his elite extension and locates the fastball higher in the zone. That pairs well with his slider and changeup down in the zone. The dark circles in the visual below on the right show the league average for the pitch type.

We'll note Ober outperformed his xERA (4.20) throughout his career compared to his actual ERA at 3.64. It means we should bake some regression with an ERA closer to 4.00, though the profile still suggests a WHIP asset. There has been speculation on how long Ober can limit the home runs with a career HR/F at 11 percent while allowing fly balls 48 percent of the time. Overall, Ober possesses above-average skills in a starting pitcher we love to prioritize, so continue doing that as an SP3 around pick 100 to 125. 

Kutter Crawford - Boston Red Sox

ADP Riser: Up 17 Spots

The Red Sox seem to have a type in Kutter Crawford and Garrett Whitlock, where they have solid control with some concerns around their role as a starter or reliever. Like Ober, Crawford rocks a quality ball rate at 33.7 percent while generating a decent swinging strike rate at 12.9 percent. The slider highlights the arsenal with a 22.7 percent swinging strike rate, a career best in 2023. 

Since Crawford relies on the four-seamer (39.1 percent), cutter (28.3 percent), and knuckle curve (11.9 percent) for nearly 80 percent of his arsenal, it hints at struggles against lefties. Besides the four-seamer with a .200 wOBA allowed against lefties, most of Crawford's pitches struggled versus opposite-handed hitters.

It's worth noting FanGraphs lists a slider, but it's the sweeper on Baseball Savant, which he throws 6.8 percent of the time. He threw a splitter 7.8 percent of the time after around 2.0 percent in the previous two seasons, so that could be a positive change to his arsenal. 

It's a small sample, but Crawford's splitter had mediocre results with a .319 wOBA and an 8.5 percent swinging strike rate against lefties in 2023. He threw it 4.0 mph slower than in 2022, and it added nearly five inches of drop, as seen above.

It could be a problem where Crawford struggles to command the splitter, so keep tabs on it in 2024. Crawford's control and decent skills made him a sleeper starting pitcher in the offseason with an ADP that keeps rising, meaning the market isn't sleeping on him. Besides Nick Pivetta, the entire Red Sox rotation remains discounted going past pick 200, so take a chance on Crawford and another of your favorite Boston starters. 

Nick Pivetta - Boston Red Sox

ADP Riser: Up 7 Spots

Finally, Pivetta had a career-best ERA in his seventh season. Patience paid off, as he also posted an xERA under 4.00 for the second time in his career. The last time it occurred came in the 2018 season when fantasy managers tagged him a sleeper for multiple seasons afterward. However, this time it's legitimate for Pivetta.  

Pivetta boasted a career-high strikeout minus walk rate at 22 percent, six points above the career average. The same trend occurred in the swinging strike rate at 13.7 percent, aligning with the strikeout rate gains. Pivetta showed a slight improvement in control with a 34.8 percent ball rate, down from a career average of 35.6 percent. 

The slider highlighted the arsenal, evidenced by the 17.7 percent swinging strike rate, over 1.5 points above his career average. Pivetta revamped his slider, throwing it over 3.5 mph harder than in 2022 while dropping nearly 10 inches fewer. That makes sense since he threw the slider at a higher velocity, meaning it shouldn't drop as much.

Besides the slider, Pivetta's four-seamer (11 percent) and curveball (12.8 percent) increased in swinging strike rate, causing a jump in the overall rate. For context, Pivetta's four-seamer and curve improved about 2-3 percentage points from his career average. 

The slider and curveball performed well against righties, evident by the .211 wOBA against the curve and a .251 wOBA versus the slider. However, the slider was the only offering thrown over 10 times against lefties that fared decently, with a .275 wOBA. Pivetta might struggle against lefties unless the splitter or four-seamer takes a step forward. However, Pivetta's boasted the best skills since 2018, so it's worth investing in him in 2024. 

Pitcher Fallers

Nick Lodolo - Cincinnati Reds

ADP Faller: Down 13 Spots

Nick Lodolo's lower-leg injury in spring training has lowered his ADP. Though a leg injury seems less concerning than a shoulder or elbow issue, the lower half of a player's body takes a toll. Lodolo flashed some skills to warrant our attention with a career 20 percent strikeout minus walk rate and 13.2 percent swinging strike rate. Given his skills, his career xERA of 3.46 compared to his actual 4.34 hints at better ratios, though we haven't seen it over a bigger sample.

Lodolo's breaking ball and changeup highlight his arsenal, evidenced by his 22.9 percent swinging strike rate on the breaker and 17.3 percent via the off-speed. He threw the breaker slightly slower, around 1.0 mph, and it added four inches of drop, translating into more whiffs.

Right-handed hitters crushed the four-seamer, with a .423 wOBA in 2023 compared to a career wOBA of .345. The curveball has been the best option against righties, with a career .330 wOBA, but he'll need the four-seamer or an off-speed pitch to attack opposite-handed hitters.

Even the changeup he threw didn't fare well, but it possesses an above-average movement profile. That indicates potential whiffs and weak contact, given the high swinging strike rate in 2023 with a career average of 14.5 percent. We could see the changeup garnering more consistency for Lodolo, helping to limit the platoon splits.

Since Lodolo's ADP fell, it's maybe worth taking a chance around his ADP of 240, though we've seen him go closer to pick 200. Be cautious about loading up on too many injured pitchers like Lodolo because it will make it challenging to remain patient with other roster issues that arise. Overall, Lodolo's metrics look better than the results, so that's typically a buying opportunity. 

Lance Lynn - St. Louis Cardinals

ADP Faller: Down 22 Spots

Lance Lynn fits the classic player where we expect regression to shift in their favor but doesn't move enough to make an impact. Lynn posted a career-worst ERA with a career-high HR/F at 19 percent. We hoped the luck factors would help him since the skills looked solid.

However, Lynn only had one quality month in August with a 3.60 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and a 12 percent strikeout minus walk rate. It's the only month with an ERA under 4.00 besides April's 5.2 innings, with the other five months of 5.00 or above.

Lynn's four-seamer (14.1 percent) and cutter (13.1 percent) had respectable swinging strike rates, similar to 2022. However, his slider's swinging strike rate fell to 13.3 percent, down four points from 2022. That's interesting because Lynn threw his slider slower at 83 mph in 2023, with over seven inches more vertical drop, which should elicit more whiffs. It's worth noting Lynn's slider added more drop after he joined the Dodgers, so keep tabs on it with the Cardinals.

Lynn's curveball lost vertical break over the past few seasons, though it added nearly four inches of glove-side sweep. With that, the curveball generated a 13.8 percent swinging strike rate, almost four points above his career average on the curve. These movement changes, paired with the brutal results, provide context because hitters hammered Lynn's entire arsenal. 

Unsurprisingly, Lynn's ADP sits around pick 300 after the recency bias for fantasy managers. While Lynn never had dominant strikeout stuff, he possessed enough skills that made him an above-average pitcher in the previous four seasons. Take the discount on Lynn late in drafts because he should have at least one more solid season in the tank, though the upside remains limited. 

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