ATC Projections: Pitcher Surprises And Concerns For Fantasy Baseball Drafts

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2. Concerning Surprises Based on ATC Projections

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Using projections in the fantasy baseball draft process helps give us a baseline of numbers to build a balanced team. Roster construction becomes more challenging with deeper rosters. Though the ADP market pushes up pitchers in rotisserie, category, and points leagues, the projections suggest avoiding at their price. That's important because many positive pitcher surprises in ATC projections have been relievers or undervalued starters.

It leads to wondering if we should wait to take relievers and starting pitchers, considering the projections have fewer positive values for pitchers than hitters. As we covered in a previous article, we'll use the ATC projections to find potential values or fades as a starting point to examine deeper.

We used the cutoff of inside the top-200 picks for the hitter surprises using ATC projections. However, we'll use 300 as a cutoff for ADP when examining the pitchers since 29 of the 68 pitchers (42.6 percent) going inside the top 200 had a positive projected value compared to their ADP. That means over half of the pitchers within the first 200 picks look like potentially overvalued players.

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Positive Surprises Based on ATC Projections

Logan Webb, SP, SF

NFBC ADP: 57 (Since Feb. 25)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 29

Though Logan Webb doesn't flash with the high strikeout rates, he eats innings with quality ratios. After a 2.91 ERA (3.34 xERA) in 2022, Webb's skills improved, leading to a better xERA (2.98) than his actual (3.25) in 2023. Webb's 14 percent strikeout minus walk rate (2022) improved to 19 percent in 2023, with his walk rate falling to George Kirby levels.

Though Webb already possessed near-elite control, he took it to another level, evidenced by his 34 percent ball rate (2022) to 32.2 percent (2023). Webb's 2023 ball rate ranked eighth behind Spencer Strider (32.1 percent), Julio Urias (31.4 percent), and Sandy Alcantara (31.2 percent).

Yes, Webb has a below-average swinging strike rate at 9.2 percent, but he generated an elite ground ball rate at 61 percent. That's mainly due to his changeup inducing a 72.6 percent ground ball rate paired with the sinker at 59.9 percent. It's slightly off from Webb's career averages of ground ball rate for the changeup (68.6 percent) and sinker (65.1 percent), but the takeaway involves him generating weak contact.

Let's highlight the changeup having a bump in ground ball rate while maintaining its swinging strike rate of 12.8 percent. We should pay attention because Webb relied on the changeup 41.6 percent of the time, a 10 percentage point jump from 2022. Webb traded fewer sliders for more changeups, as seen in the visual above. Unfortunately, Webb's slider dipped in swinging strike rate to 9.7 percent, down from a career average of 11.5 percent.

However, Webb's high-end control and command, paired with the heavy ground balls, led to a pitcher that may not elicit many whiffs. He has the stuff to generate more swings and misses, but that's not his approach on the mound. Webb is a quality SP1 to take at or slightly earlier than his ADP when drafters build a strong hitter base in the first few rounds.

Joe Musgrove, SP, SD

NFBC ADP: 104 (Since Feb. 25)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 58

There's an injury discount with Joe Musgrove after dealing with a toe and shoulder injury. Musgrove's shoulder injury in August ended his season, but he showed some of the same skills. His 18 percent strikeout minus walk rate aligned with his career average (17 percent). Meanwhile, Musgrove's 12 percent swinging strike rate sat about one point above his career norm, and his xERA (3.61) hinted at some regression compared to his actual ERA (3.06).

Musgrove's 33.8 percent ball rate in 2023 aligned with the 2022 numbers (33.7 percent), meaning he gives a sneaky boost at WHIP. It's difficult to find starting pitchers who could be an asset in WHIP, especially farther in the draft. Musgrove possesses a deep arsenal, using five pitches more than 11 percent of the time.

He keeps tinkering with his pitch mix each year. In 2023, Musgrove used his curveball more often (25.2 percent) against righties, about a four-point increase, yielding positive results (.179 wOBA, .206 xwOBA). Meanwhile, the four-seamer performed well against lefties, though it typically struggled, as seen below.

Musgrove's curveball allowed a .197 wOBA (.245 xwOBA) in 2023 compared to .285 wOBA in 2022. Part of it seems luck-based since Musgrove's four-seamer had a 5.6 percent HR/F in 2023 compared to a career rate of 13 percent, similar to his BABIP at .271 (2023) versus a career average of .306.

His changeup and slider remain the most notable from a whiff standpoint. That's evident by a 16.6 percent swinging strike rate for the slider and 22.5 percent on the changeup. It's the best swinging strike rate on his changeup since 2018 at 24.7 percent. Expect those trends to continue since Musgrove possesses two pitches to generate whiffs while adjusting his pitch mix again in 2024. Take the injury discount on Musgrove as an SP2 or SP3 in 15-teamers or SP4 or SP5 in shallower formats.

Nestor Cortes, SP, NYY

NFBC ADP: 236 (Since Feb. 25)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 167

It may not be the most fruitful process to (regularly) buy the injury discount dip, but Nestor Cortes seems to fall into that bucket. Cortes landed on the injured list in June, returned for a week in August, then finished the season with a rotator cuff strain.

The skills looked similar to his 2022 breakout season, with a 17 percent strikeout minus walk rate and 11.3 percent swinging strike rate in 2023. However, the luck factors regressed and caused his ratios to balloon.

Cortes's four-seamer and cutter fell about one percentage point in swinging strike rate, but his lowly used (2.8 percent) changeup elicited tons of whiffs (16.7 percent). His cutter specifically allowed more fly balls 54.7 percent of the time, a 13-point increase, causing his overall fly ball rate to rise nine points.

That's something to monitor because the home run rates increased for Cortes as a fly ball pitcher. The cutter struggled against both sides of the plate, though we should've baked in regression for 2023. Cortes allowed a .361 wOBA and .248 xwOBA on the cutter against lefties compared to .362 wOBA and identical xwOBA versus righties.

We should expect the floor for Cortes to be closer to his xERA at 3.71 and 1.12 xWHIP in 2022. The shoulder injury concerns still linger, and there's a chance it will bother him again. Besides health, Cortes boasts the control and command-based floor with consistent skills over the past few seasons. Given the discounted price, target Cortes as an SP4 or SP5, going near Brayan Bello, Cristopher Sanchez, Yusei Kikuchi, and Reid Detmers.

Concerning Surprises Based on ATC Projections

Cole Ragans, SP, KC

NFBC ADP: 85 (Since Feb. 25)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 249

Cole Ragans wouldn't be a target if we drafted only based on projections. However, Ragans set the fantasy and real-life baseball world ablaze after his dominant final two months of the season, which totaled 11 starts. In August and September, Ragans posted a 2.70 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 22.9 percent strikeout rate, and 15.1 percent swinging-strike rate. Control might be a problem for Ragans, given his 36 percent ball rate. However, he makes up for it via his ability to generate swings and misses.

We witness Ragans flash significant increases in velocity, leading to a drastically different pitcher than we've seen before. Ragans spent time at Tread Athletics, similar to Driveline Baseball, an athletic performance facility. He reformed his mechanics after their assessment process and developed a new slider. Ragans' mechanics became more efficient, allowing him to command his pitches better.

He attempted to develop a pitch to attack lefties, and he succeeded. The slider had above-average vertical movement and elicited a mind-blowing 25.8 percent swinging strike rate, ranking the sixth best among all sliders thrown and fourth for starting pitchers (minimum 150 pitches). Ragans used his deadly slider against lefties 26.2 percent of the time, resulting in a .169 wOBA and .201 xwOBA.

Meanwhile, he attacks hitters with changeups (29 percent) and curveballs (13.7 percent) against right-handed hitters, leading to quality results. His changeup allowed a .197 wOBA, while the curveball had a .227 wOBA against righties.

With the refined mechanics, added velocity, new slider, and ability to command his pitches, the ADP for Ragans skyrocketed, and rightfully so. Projections systems struggle with pitchers like Ragans, who smashes in a small sample. However, the data and additional work with Tread paid off for Ragans, so he's not a complete fade at his ADP as an SP2 in 15-teamers. If Ragans continues to shove in spring training, his ADP will climb to new heights.

Hunter Greene, SP, CIN

NFBC ADP: 137 (Since Feb. 25)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 257

The stuff for Hunter Greene sucks us in, but the results and control have been an issue. Greene's career 4.00 xERA hints at better actual results, given his 4.63 ERA. He posted a near-identical 21 percent strikeout minus walk rate in his first two seasons, with a swinging strike rate of 14-15 percent. Greene's middling 36.5 percent ball rate suggests a slightly better walk rate, around 7-8 percent instead of nine.

Greene relies on the four-seamer (54.4 percent) and slider (40.3 percent) while sprinkling in a changeup 5.3 percent of the time. Though his slider highlights the arsenal and elicits a 17.4 percent swinging strike rate, home runs remain an issue as a fly ball pitcher. Among his top-two pitches in usage (slider and four-seamer), the fastball allows the highest HR/F at 18.7 percent in his career.

Unfortunately, Greene's four-seamer still struggles against right-handed hitters (.413 wOBA, .364 xwOBA) and lefties (.352 wOBA and .327 xwOBA). That leaves his slider being the only effective pitch, raising concerns as a starting pitcher unless he makes adjustments.

We've heard about Greene adding a curveball and splitter in the offseason. That would add to the intrigue because the splitter could be a weapon against lefties while the curve becomes a differently shaped breaker for called strikes and whiffs. We're still projecting potential changes for Greene, which might take time to translate to positive results. The new pitches fit Greene's arsenal needs, but the ADP still means drafters will pay up for the upside. Monitor those potential changes, and it may be better to watch from the sidelines.

Chris Paddack, SP, MIN

NFBC ADP: 297 (Since Feb. 25)
ATC Value: Overall Player No. 468

Like that Staind song "It's Been Awhile," Chris Paddack hasn't earned positive value since his rookie year (2019). He worked his way back from his second career Tommy John surgery to make two outings in September last season. It's not worth overanalyzing his 23 innings combined in 2022 and 2023, but there have been reports about him adding a cutter in the offseason.

Paddack has primarily thrown a four-seamer, changeup, and curveball to account for about 95 percent of his arsenal. He lowered his four-seamer usage in favor of more changeups and curveballs compared to earlier in his career, as seen below. However, it might be fluky, given their respective sample size.

The changeup has been effective against righties (.266 wOBA) and lefties (.254 wOBA) in his career. Unfortunately, Paddack's four-seamer hasn't fared well, given the .322 wOBA against left-handed hitters and .339 wOBA versus righties. Paddack's curve possesses tons of vertical drop, yet only generates a swinging strike rate of 8.4 percent in his career. He uses the breaker to elicit weak contact, evidenced by the overall .271 wOBA and .277 xwOBA.

Since Paddack uses a changeup and curveball that he typically locates to the bottom corners of the plate or lower in the zone, it's logical for him to add a fastball variation like the cutter up the zone. It would beef up Paddack's arsenal if he could have a variation of his four-seamer like a cutter.

According to Baseball Savant, Paddack hasn't thrown a cutter yet in his spring outings. Be careful with the Player Breakdowns on Savant for Paddack since it's using his 2022 velocity averages, not 2023. However, one beat writer reported Paddack threw a cutter at 84 mph against the University of Minnesota in an exhibition game, and there's a good chance we see more velocity on it. He threw a cutter 33 times in 2020 around 88 mph, with an attempt to locate it up in the zone, so keep tabs on a cutter from him soon.

That would round out his arsenal and be a way to find an edge against the projections, though ATC has him at a fair floor of a 4.40 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and 16 percent strikeout minus walk rate in 118 innings. Take a shot on Paddack after pick 250 or so since it's a part of the draft to take upside chances.

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