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Jamie's best MLB player prop bets for today (5/11/2026). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Shohei Ohtani, Spencer Jones, and others!
Happy Monday, RotoBallers, and a happy belated Mother's Day to any moms reading this article. You ladies are the real superheroes and I hope you were spoiled yesterday. Hopefully we can help you get a bit richer today with some of these HR props. Tonight features only six games on the schedule, so picking and choosing the right game environment is the best way to go.
Even on a shortened slate, there are some high-powered offenses in action. The Dodgers and Yankees both currently have implied run totals pushing six runs, and there are superstars in action on some of the other squads. Be sure to check into our RotoBallers Discord all day, as we'll be discussing DFS and betting.
Below, you'll read about my favorite home run props from MLB games on Monday, May 11, 2026. The current odds given reflect the best price as of the publication, but remember to always shop around at other sportsbooks so you can get more value on your wagers. Odds can vary significantly from one sportsbook to another.
MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (5/11/2026)
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+240, BetMGM)
Dare we say that Shohei Ohtani is...human?? It certainly seems so these days, at least on the offensive side. The Dodgers' two-way sensation has only one homer since 4/12 and is batting a very quiet .246 with only a .792 OPS. On the flip side, of course, he's been utterly dominant on the mound with a 0.97 ERA and 0.81 WHIP.
So why are we betting him to homer tonight? First off, Ohtani's odds are much longer now thanks to his swoon. Generally when you bet on peak Ohtani to go long, you'll find his odds hovering somewhere in the +160 to +170 range. Getting to bet him at +240 on BetMGM is a bit of a gift, and we know the hitting slump is not going to last forever.
Despite the slow start, Ohtani still has a pedigree for battering right-handed pitching. Since the beginning of last season, he has a .471 wOBA and .251 ISO against RHP along with a 120 wRC+. The Dodgers have an IRT of 5.9 runs (highest of the day), and the wind is blowing out in warm weather in Los Angeles.
Trevor McDonald has the ability to miss bats, but he's shown a tendency to give up hard contact to lefties. Leading off, Ohtani has the ability to maximize his plate appearances and give himself at least four bites at the apple. Of the "favorites" on the slate, Ohtani should have the best chance to pay off this homer bet.
Pete Alonso OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+490, FanDuel)
After a brutal start to the year with his new team, Pete Alonso has remembered how to hit. He had a quiet series against the Athletics over the weekend, but he's now got eight homers and 22 RBI on the season. He's also rocking a 17.1% barrel rate and a .748 OPS.
Pete Alonso in May:
.357 BA
.438 OBP
.893 SLG
1.330 OPSHe now has a .796 OPS on the season. pic.twitter.com/oUmFmECj5O
— Jacob Calvin Meyer (@jcalvinmeyer) May 9, 2026
Ryan Weathers will take the hill for the Yankees after missing a start due to illness. Weathers has been good for the Yankees, posting a 3.03 ERA and a 27.7% K rate. He's especially been nails against lefties, allowing only a .276 SLG and striking out a whopping 43% of them.
Weathers' bugaboo, however, has been hard contact allowed to right-handed batters. On the season, he's already allowed six homers to righties while also giving up a 42.5% HHR, 17.7% barrel rate, and only striking out 24% of righty bats. He can be had if you target the right players, and Pete Alonso certainly fits the bill.
Since the beginning of last year, the Polar Bear has beaten on lefty pitching for a .384 wOBA and .221 ISO, and he had an elite 21.5% barrel rate against them in 2025. Back at home in the friendly confines of Camden Yards, Alonso could take Weathers deep early on, and the Yankee bullpen is tired.
