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The stage is set for the 2024 NCAA Tournament. We start with a play-in appetizer, followed by the greatest weekend in sports. 48 games in four days. A field whittled down to 16 teams from 64. There is nothing on earth like it, and we here at RotoBaller will be with you every step of the way.
We begin at the beginning. Defending national champion Connecticut is the top overall seed in the tournament this year, so a lot has changed since the 2023 tournament. It was one of the wildest tournaments in history. Will we get more of the same this year, or will it be boring? It seems like in recent years a crazy tournament is followed by a chalk-fest. I'm hoping for more of the former. I've got my tickets for Omaha, so I'm looking forward to all of it!
Once you're done here, be sure to also check out the rest of our NCAA Tournament articles and analysis including previews, predictions, sleepers, busts, and guides on how to fill out your bracket, including other predictions for the South, Midwest, and West regions.
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East Region Favorites
(1) Connecticut (31-3)
Breaking! The reigning Champs have been selected as the Top overall Seed for the NCAA Tournament!#uconn #connecticuthuskies #ncaa #ncaabasketball #marchmadness #sports #ncaasports #danhurley #ncaatournament #bracketchallenge pic.twitter.com/t8tQsfVJpp
— Sports Town (@sportstownnet) March 17, 2024
UConn is the top overall seed for a reason. All three losses were in true road games. The bad news is that they lost two of those three by 15 points or more. Being that UConn is the top overall seed, they have a bear of a bracket. All three of the Final Four teams from 2023 that qualified for the tournament are in this region, and Connecticut could face one of them in the second round.
(2) Iowa State (27-7)
All seven losses were true road games or neutral site games. That Virginia Tech loss in Orlando turned out to be their worst loss. Iowa State didn't play well at the ESPN Events tournament. They also dropped a game to Texas A&M there. How good is Iowa State? Houston lost four games all season. Two of those were to the Cyclones and one was by 30 points! Iowa State is a team peaking at the right time. The bad news is that Brookings, South Dakota is about the game distance from Omaha as Ames is. The Jackrabbits will be well-represented as well.
(3) Illinois (26-8)
The Illini lost a home game to Maryland with Terrence Shannon Jr. out. The court ruling allowing him to play helped catapult the Illini to the Big Ten automatic bid and a three seed instead of a four. The Illini can score with anyone, but they have struggled when teams succeed in slowing them down.
(4) Auburn (27-7)
Auburn's loss to Appalachian State in December might have kept them off the three-line. At the very least, it stuck them in Connecticut's region. The Tigers struggled a bit early on, but they hit their stride with Tre Donaldson taking over the point guard job. They're a young team with a deep bench that can score with anyone. The Tigers will be a tough out.
East Region Fatal Flaws
All teams have one or two things that could keep them from reaching their full potential. Here we will run the gamut of the main things that will hold teams in this region back.
Connecticut: The Huskies are one of the more complete teams in the tournament. If I had to pick one, I would say turnovers. The Huskies have a 1.89 assist-to-turnover ratio as a team. Again, that's not bad. The main thing that could hold this team back is their bracket. The top eight seeds in this region are all very good teams.
Iowa State: Rebounds. The Cyclones are an excellent defensive team, but they are 328th in Division I in rebounding.
Illinois: Half-court offense. This team is at its best when it can get out and run. If someone slows them down, trouble ensues.
Auburn: Guard play. The Tigers don't have a creator in the backcourt. They made up for it with the excellent all-around play of Johni Broome and Jaylin Williams, but a team with good guards can stop Auburn.
San Diego State: Three-point shooting. The Aztecs shot just 31.3% from beyond the arc this season. That's 314th out of 362 teams.
BYU: Like UConn, it is hard to find a major flaw with the Cougars. They do a lot of things well. They also lost nine conference games. Interior defense, specifically rim protection, is their greatest hole.
Washington State: Offensive stagnation. They don't have a true point guard, which results in the ball stalling out in the half-court.
Florida Atlantic: Aesthetically, there is not a lot different about this team and last year's Final Four squad. Their main weakness is depth. In this case, lack thereof. The Owls only run seven players deep in most games.
East Region Ceilings
We know the floor of every team, right? They can all lose in the first round. Top overall seed Virginia lost on the first day of the tournament in 2017. In this section, we'll explore the realistic ceiling of every team in the bracket.
Connecticut: Repeat champions. They are better than last year nearly everywhere and do most things right.
Iowa State: Their defense will keep them in every game. The Cyclones have some scoring to go with the defense this year. Realistically, they could win the region and go to the Final Four. It would serve the Cyclones better if they met UConn in the regional final. San Diego State, FAU, and Auburn wouldn't be good for them. I ultimately think a great rebounding team will be their undoing, but the Cyclones could be a Final Four team.
Illinois: The Illini got a solid draw. They could go as far as the regional final, but they don't match up well with UConn.
Auburn: They draw a tough game in the second round and UConn if they make it to the Sweet 16. That's probably the ceiling for this team. UConn's guards will destroy them.
San Diego State: I have the Aztecs in the Sweet Sixteen right now. They are the kind of team that could give UConn trouble, but the lack of outside scoring has their ceiling at the regional semifinals.
BYU: They get the easiest 11 seed and match up well with Illinois. The good news is that they would play the Cyclones in Boston instead of Omaha. They beat Iowa State in Provo and only lost by five in Ames. This is a team that could go all the way to the Elite Eight if they get hot. The matchup with UConn is not a good one.
Washington State: This team beat Arizona twice this year, but I hate the draw for the Cougs. Drake's campus is a shade over two hours from Omaha -- they are the team closest to the site. If they manage to beat Drake in a road game, A guard-heavy Iowa State team awaits them. I like this team a lot, but I don't see them making it out of Omaha.
Florida Atlantic: The Owls can play with anyone. They beat Texas A&M and Arizona. They also lost to Bryant and Florida Gulf Coast. A team this hot and cold won't beat Connecticut. Their ceiling this year is the round of 32.
Northwestern: The loss of Ty Berry hurt the Wildcats. They lost three of their last four games. FAU is not a good draw for them either. I feel like Northwestern won't win a game this time around.
Drake: Tucker DeVries might be the best player you've never heard of and they'll have a partisan crowd behind them. This reminds me of a game -- also in Omaha -- back in 2015 when Wichita State played Kansas.
In the 2015 NCAA Tournament, Kansas continued their policy of refusing to play Wichita State.
— Matt Goldich (@MattGoldich) March 22, 2015
The Jayhawks would never play them even though they are in the same state. Wichita State got a chance at them behind star Fred VanVleet and beat the Jayhawks. Drake and Iowa State are less than a half-hour apart, but the Cyclones never play them. Sound familiar? This team could make it into the Sweet Sixteen with a de facto home crowd urging them on.
Duquesne: The Dukes are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1977. Their reward is a tough BYU team. Duquesne is a rough-and-tumble team that plays great defense. I could see them sniping BYU, but Illinois is Duquesne with much more talent.
UAB: A high seed that is capable of a fairly deep run. That said, any team would have problems beating San Diego State and Auburn in the span of three days. They might poach one, but not both.
Yale: The Bulldogs bullied Kansas for a half in Lawrence and nearly beat Gonzaga. Danny Wolf is good enough to give the Auburn guards trouble. San Diego State or UAB is a much more difficult matchup for Yale. They could win one game, but I think that's the ceiling.
Morehead State: The Eagles should have beaten Indiana in Bloomington. Illinois only beat the Hoosiers by eight. It could be a closer game since the Eagles shoot 36.1% from beyond the arc and they shoot a lot of them. An upset is unlikely, but it could happen.
South Dakota State: It would take a strong rebounding team to beat Iowa State, and the Jackrabbits just aren't that.
Stetson: The Hatters are 27th in the nation in three-point shooting at 37%. They are more dangerous than your usual 16-seed. The only major conference team they beat this year was Central Florida, but UCF is a decent team. Too bad they got the strongest one seed or we could see history again...
Most Intriguing First-Round Matchup
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 UAB
The Blazers needed the automatic bid from the American Conference to even get in, but now that they are, they got a solid draw. The Blazers are one of the few teams that shoot worse from outside than the Aztecs do. These teams are a mirror image of each other. Contrasting styles are usually more intriguing, but I do like a game that pits two mid-majors against each other who excel in the same area. The battle between Jaedon LeDee and Yaxel Lendeborg is going to be worth watching by itself!
Bust of the Region
Auburn is the most likely bust of this region. I want to say San Diego State, but they have that "it" factor. Auburn's guards are markedly better than they were early on, particularly Denver Jones. He's just a scorer though. The ball gets stuck in this offense sometimes and that won't fly come tournament time. I don't think Yale can beat them, but the winner of San Diego State-UAB most likely will.
Dark Horse Play
This would totally be FAU if they didn't get UConn in the second round. Instead, I'll go with BYU. As with Illinois, they got a solid draw. The Cougars can score on anyone and their interior defense was much better down the stretch. They could wreck the bottom of this bracket.
East Regional Picks
First round: Connecticut, FAU, SDSU, Auburn, BYU, Illinois, Drake, Iowa State
Second round: Connecticut, SDSU, BYU, Iowa State
Regional semifinal: UConn, Iowa State
Regional champion: I want to pick Iowa State because any team that beats Houston by 30 is a threat to win a title. In my heart of hearts, I know they can't beat UConn. They don't fit the profile of the three teams that beat the Huskies. I don't like chalk picks, but Connecticut really does look like the best team in this region.
More March Madness Analysis
