RADIO
We are nearing the end of winter here in the Midwest. This morning, the sun is shining, the coffee is hot and flavorful, and people are preparing their chore lists for the day. But not us. We are continuing the preparations for the coming fantasy baseball season.
Draft season is in full swing for many of us. Is there a better time to be alive than during fantasy baseball season? I think not. But we know we must be ready to go into that draft room and assemble a championship roster.
As we prepare ourselves for the season, there are some guidelines we can use to shape our thought processes. Let's look at some "do's" and "don'ts" as we dive headlong into the best season of the year. Once more into the breach, dear friends.
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- Cut List - Players To Consider Dropping
DO Know the Exact Scoring System
I say this first before anything else every time I write a piece like this.
Know your scoring system backward and forward. This seems like a foregone conclusion, but many players simply assume they know the scoring system. Make sure you know every way in which you gain, or perhaps lose, points. For example, a friend asked for some assistance to prep for his draft. When asked for the scoring system, he told me it was "standard."
Upon further investigation, it was an on-base percentage league, not a batting average league. That changes your strategy considerably. So, first things first, spend time to fully understand the scoring components. Is it just saves? Saves plus holds? Are you penalized for certain things like batter strikeouts? Rotisserie versus points league?
Know the system! It's the first and easiest way to start preparing.
DO Use Tools to Prepare
How do you prepare for your drafts each season? Has your preparation led to success in your leagues?
Some tools that you might consider using in your preparation:
- RotoBaller Rankings
- RotoBaller ATC Projections
- FanGraphs Projections/Roster Resource
- Baseball HQ
It's important to remember that all projections, by nature, have a degree of imprecision. They are a guide and a roadmap for us but know that the perfect system does not exist. Yet, it's better to have some roadmap than not. Much of it still comes down to your decision-making process in critical moments.
DO Some Math
You don't have to do a ton of math, but it might be a good idea to set some soft targets on numbers you might wish to attain, especially for counting statistics. For example, in some leagues, fantasy players will shoot for the 80th percentile in say, home runs, and then find targets to gather those statistics. Your league might have historical data that can easily give you this information. This quick math gives you a potential baseline of where you need to be as you stockpile counting stats.
DO Watch for "Cliffs"
Many people draft off the idea of tiers, which is a great strategy. This helps you avoid "falling in love" with certain players. When you sense a cliff coming, the drop-off in players at a specific position becomes palpable. Here's an example: currently drafting in TGFBI, I have historically found it difficult to find saves on the waiver wire. So I wanted to leave the draft with two solid closers.
I drafted Devin Williams in the third round (maybe too early), and by the time we got to the eighth round, many of the closers I felt comfortable with as my No. 2 closer were off the board.
Clay Holmes of the New York Yankees was the last RP before (in my mind) "the cliff" hits. Adbert Alzolay and Kenley Jansen scare me. So instead of rostering a catcher like Salvador Perez or a middle infield option like Ketel Marte, I picked Holmes to try and lock in 60-70 saves on this roster. I will add a third relief pitcher later as a speculative pick for saves; at the very least, another reliever should help me with ratio controls while I hope for potential saves. As you can see below, there is much to like about Holmes.
DO Populate a Strong Queue
In a snake draft, a strong queue is your best friend. This is especially important in draft rooms where you only have one minute to decide on your next player. Starting from the beginning, populate a strong queue. Add to it as the draft goes, paying attention to those players dropping that may interest you.
For example, take a pitcher like Braxton Garrett, falling due to the uncertainty of his injury return. Does he represent value to you if he falls to the 20th round like in my TGFBI league? He did to me, and I snagged him there, and now hope he's only missing a week or two at the beginning of the season.
Some people will remove players from the queue after they roster that position. My advice would be not to do that; even if your position seems full, a guy you like falling to you could represent a great opportunity.
In the example above, you see the arbitrary top-five players in my queue for a league I am drafting with my son, Jack. Try to create a queue that has positional flexibility to it so you can pivot as necessary. I also like to add players that I need to remember for later in drafts for the proverbial dart throw at the end.
Don't be Married to ADP
My good friend Dave Funnell always reminds me of this mantra with a simple statement: at the end of the day, it's your team. So get your guys. Average Draft Position (ADP) is simply a guide that tells you how other people in similar leagues are drafted. So, if you want to roster a player a round or two before his ADP, do it. Do not be married to ADP; you are only married to your spouse if you have one.
Likewise, if a player falls from his ADP, that doesn't necessarily mean you are getting a "bargain." Be more interested in the construction of your team and what players fit that build. Many fantasy players become animated when talking about a player "falling to them." Why is he falling? Do you have the right information on this player? ADP is just a guide. Treat it as such.
Don't Let Bias Influence You
Many times we let our biases impact our decision-making for our team. Let's do a brief experiment. Think of a player whose struggles when you rostered him cost you a winning season. Is that true? Is it fair? Are you correct in your assertion, or do you have a discernible bias?
We spend too much time thinking about what a player did last year (recency bias) and not enough about the width and breadth of that player's career, or what he could do next.
Here is an example from one of my rosters, and an example of what not to do. Ha-Seong Kim is a great example of this for me last year. I had several opportunities to roster him but was put off by what I thought would be a low batting average and not enough counting stats in 2023.
I was basing this off a 2022 that saw him hit .251 with 11 home runs, 12 stolen bases, and score a pedestrian 58 runs. Not bad statistics, but I felt I could do better for my middle infield spot. All Kim did was hit .260 with 17 home runs, 38 stolen bases, and score 84 runs. I neglected that he makes contact and that he could grow in only his third full season. I thought taking Nick Gordon would be a better idea. It wasn't.
What I got from Gordon:
That is not meant to disparage Gordon, a fine player, but rather look at my faulty thought process.
An even more egregious example: I am a lifelong Chicago White Sox fan. Reynaldo Lopez looks fantastic this spring for the Atlanta Braves and is believed to be the front-runner for the No. 5 spot in the rotation. Your old pal Mike Carter can't see that. No, he recalls a floundering Lopez on the mound for his beloved White Sox, unable to command his pitches as a starter years ago.
Should Lopez win that job, he will get wins and strikeouts for perhaps the best team in baseball. Can I see that? Nope. That is bias, my friends. Lopez will not be on any of my teams if I can't shake this trauma response from my head, so learn from me what not to do!
Don't Invest in Too Many Leagues
Know your limits. Only play in leagues that are fun, engaging, and challenging. Moreover, know how many leagues are too many for you. I know some fantasy players play in 25-30 leagues or more. My high water mark was 15 two years ago, and it was just too many for me and my current lifestyle. I prefer to be in five or six leagues and at most three NFBC with FAAB. Once I hit that retirement age, look out fantasy world...I will be all over the place!
Don't Panic!
At all times, remember this game is about having fun and sharing our hobby with old and new friends. Don't panic if things don't go the way you expected; it never does. Similar to reality, life happens when you are busy making other plans.
Enjoy the drafts, and the parties if that is part of it, and fostering relationships with others in a world where the biggest malady is loneliness. There is always another player to roster if you do not get the player you want. As we change seasons now in many parts of the country, please take care of your mental and physical health, and check in on your friends!
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