RADIO
As someone who played fantasy football for a lengthier period, the roster size, league depth, and categorical balance remained challenging in fantasy baseball. The player pool becomes difficult to master and understand, especially as the league and roster size grows.
Thankfully, projection systems help give us a baseline of numbers of what to expect before the season. Some systems also project players during the season. In this column, we'll focus on the ATC Projections.
Many of us know about the ATC Projection since we use them during the draft process. However, there's a chance we have more to learn and incorporate from ATC. Ariel Cohen created the ATC Projections and wrote about the projection system basics in the past. I've had the pleasure of interacting with Ariel online. He would be the expert to connect with for more questions. With that, we'll review the basics, discuss how to use them in our draft process, and highlight the unique features.
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The Basics of ATC Projections
ATC stands for Average Total Cost, and Ariel Cohen applies weights to different data sources based on which projection systems perform better in specific areas. For instance, if a projection system projects home runs or batting average well, Ariel may weigh that specific system more in the ATC Projections. It's similar to weighting metrics in our formal or informal process of whether it correlates well to future success.
ATC Projections have been consistently one of the most accurate projections based on the FantasyPros ranking contests. We'll discuss how to use them, plus other unique features to examine. The quality projection systems like ATC will test, re-test, and improve their processes over time. We can develop projections and rankings, but we should ask ourselves how much they matter if we don't refine the process.
How to Use ATC Projections?
Like any projection system, we can pull the raw stats for hitters and pitchers, including plate appearances, home runs, stolen bases, batting average, and more. We can also gather other counting stats and rates like walks, strikeouts, and slugging percentages.
Whether you're a drafter who relies on projections or feels, using the ATC Projections provides a starting point. To rank or sort hitters and pitchers by auction dollars, we download the ATC Projections from RotoBaller or FanGraphs. We can adjust the league size, scoring, and roster settings to customize the projected dollar values when downloading them from FanGraphs.
One may also input the ATC Projections or one of your choice and turn it into Standing Gained Points (SGP), turning into a dollar value for each player. From there, we can adjust the projections and rankings based on research or personal preference.
I wrote a recent article covering positive and concerning hitter surprises using ATC Projections. The simple method would be downloading the ATC Projections and comparing those players to the Average Draft Position (ADP). It provides a glance at potential values or fades based on ATC Projections, then leads us to examine the player's skills and situation more. Ariel often talks about finding projected values, and that's one way to do that based on the ADP market.
Unique Features: Inter-Projection Standard Deviation
One aspect of ATC Projections I've used lately involves the Interprojection Volatility. Ariel asks, "How can we quantify a player's projection risk?" Looking at a player's Inter-Projection Standard Deviation or InterSD is one way to identify how much the various projection systems disagree on a player. The higher the InterSD means the projections vary a ton.
In the visual above, we see the hitters with the highest InterSD, suggesting the projections in ATC disagree on the player's value. We filtered by the top 200 in ADP to avoid later-round hitters with varied projections, like Amed Rosario and Jared Triolo. Wyatt Langford has the highest InterSD, which makes sense because his ADP keeps rising with questions about his playing time on the Rangers. That doesn't mean we avoid these hitters, but it gives us a starting point to dig deeper into the projection volatility.
Inside the top 200 ADP, the above visual shows the pitchers with the highest InterSD. Unsurprisingly, these pitchers have injury concerns or unknowns based on limited data, small samples, and questionable roles. When we mention Carlos Rodon, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tanner Bibee, and Walker Buehler, these players typically make us have second thoughts. We used a cutoff of the top 200 in ADP because the opportunity for taking risks later in the drafts tends to be more palatable.
Unique Features: Intra-Standard Deviation
While InterSD looks at the volatility between the projection systems, Intra-Standard Deviation or IntraSD determines the potential unpredictability of a player's profile. A smaller IntraSD means the player has more of a balanced profile, contributing in multiple categories. Meanwhile, a bigger IntraSD shows a player with more unbalanced categories.
Inside the top 200 picks, the visual above shows us the hitters with the lowest IntraSD, meaning these players give us a balanced categorical profile. As we look down the leaders in the lowest IntraSD, we notice these players have or project to contribute in multiple categories. Some players toward the top right quadrant of the scatter plot look like potential values based on roster needs.
On the flip side, the hitters above have the highest IntraSD among the top 200 picks. Understandably, Esteury Ruiz pops with his massive stolen base totals and projections. Kyle Schwarber feels like a limited categorical profile, but he contributes in three (home runs, runs, and RBI), with the expected stats hinting at a better batting average. Pete Alonso and Matt Olson fit into similar buckets to Schwarber, but their ADP varies compared to Schwarber.
Kyle Bradish, Bryan Woo, and Buehler rounded out the top three for pitchers. Unfortunately, Bradish and Buehler come into the season with injury concerns, but theoretically, they would contribute in multiple categories. Woo has been one of the sleepers in the middle rounds, and maybe we should target him ahead of his ADP. Farther down the list, we find sleepers in the middle rounds like Gavin Williams, Ryan Pepiot, Chris Sale, and Michael King. That could mean targeting these players based on the IntraSD and other examinations.
Surprisingly or unsurprisingly, several closers have the highest IntraSD. It's unsurprising because players like Emmanuel Clase, Josh Hader, Jhoan Duran, and Edwin Diaz contribute in 2-3 categories (saves, ERA, WHIP). While we typically can't fade closers in most formats, it hints at the lack of balance in these pitcher categorical profiles. It's also probably one of the reasons why closers seem overvalued based on the projections.
We find starting pitchers like Framber Valdez, Aaron Nola, George Kirby, Mitch Keller, and Dylan Cease, as we move farther down the list of pitchers with higher IntraSD. The latter two might have the most question marks for drafters, though their volume of innings and strikeouts make them enticing if they keep the ratios in check.
ATC Projections Summary
It's wild to think we have so many projection systems to use in our fantasy baseball draft and season-long preparation. Be cautious when thinking we may know better than the projections. As the saying goes, if we think we know everything, we probably don't know anything. One topic that comes up involves playing time if we project more or less volume. It's easy to love or dislike a player's skill set and think an outcome is highly probable.
Some projection systems tend to be conservative instead of upside expectations, and ATC fits that mold. Beyond rankings and projected values, ATC Projections can help us find potential volatility and categorical balance to consider in the roster-building and drafting process.
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