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As we enter spring training for the 2024 Major League Baseball season and chatter around which teams and players will break out this year starts to begin, arguments about who is going to win the World Series ensue. What better time to start thinking about how we can profit from our predictions?
Predicting World Series Champions, league winners, division champs, and even some fun MLB specials is a great way to get us back into baseball and excited for opening day. The plan is to make some money along the way, as this is the best time we can get odds if our predictions come true.
Today we will talk about my current bets on my MLB futures, focusing on team futures primarily. We will come out soon with another article focusing on player awards and props, but let's focus on teams first. With that said, here are my 2024 team MLB future bets. For any complaints and/or concerns, contact me on Twitter @RotoSurgeon.
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Los Angeles Dodgers to Win the World Series
Despite performing as arguably the best team in baseball over this past decade, the Los Angeles Dodgers sought out every possible piece this offseason to aim toward multiple World Series Championships throughout the 2020s. Not only did the AL's reigning MVP Shohei Ohtani join, but his Japanese teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto signed on as well to bolster LAD's biggest question mark--the rotation. Along with Yamamoto, the Dodgers acquired oft-injured, but extremely talented SPs Tyler Glasnow and James Paxton as well.
While these signings alone could have propelled LAD to a 2024 World Series, in-house additions such as Walker Buehler and Gavin Lux (both former first-rounders) make their way back from injury. The team won 100 games in 2023 yet was swept immediately in the NLDS by their division rival Arizona Diamondbacks. Every measure necessary was taken to ensure the team had their best shot to return to a World Series. Just for a frame of reference, the Dodgers' offense in 2023 ranked 3rd in wRC+ (116), and the bullpen ranked 3rd in ERA (3.42). The biggest hole was starting pitching which ranked 20th in ERA (4.57).
3 K
2 IP
1 Yoshinobu Yamamoto pic.twitter.com/kXK2u7mGd8— MLB (@MLB) February 28, 2024
"Superteam" is a phrase thrown around often across sports but this Dodgers team is deserving of the title. Between Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and Shohei Ohtani, the Dodgers have three former MVPs all in their respective prime hitting at the top of the order. Will Smith, currently lined up to bat clean-up, is one of the three best catchers in baseball. Behind him will be the pop of Max Muncy and new addition Teoscar Hernandez every day with a mix of James Outman, Jason Heyward, Chris Taylor, Kike Hernandez, Gavin Lux, and Miguel Rojas based on the pitching matchup.
LA Dodgers (+360), BetMGM Sportsbook
Seattle Mariners to Win the American League
The AL is loaded with talented teams and the Seattle Mariners are one of them. While they may not accrue the most regular season wins or even win their division, they are as good a bet as any right now in the AL to advance to the World Series. Pitching wins in the playoffs and the Mariners are LOADED in all five spots of their rotation despite trading last season's big free-agent acquisition, and recent Cy Young recipient, Robbie Ray.
George Kirby had a 9.1 K/BB ratio last season
The number of times that Clayton Kershaw, Pedro Martinez, and Greg Maddux had a higher K/BB ratio, in their combined 57 seasons of pitching: 1
— Sammy Reid (@SammyReidFI) March 4, 2024
George Kirby, Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller, and Bryan Woo may be the most complete rotation in all of baseball. While pitching is volatile year-over-year throughout the MLB, Seattle is primed to compete in 2024 and beyond given not only the talent of this bunch but the durability and track record of pitching deep into games.
On top of their rotation, the bullpen can shut down any offense at full strength between Andres Munoz, Gregory Santos, Matt Brash, and Gabe Speier. Brash and Santos are ailing at the moment but at their best, they are incredible.
The offense looks revamped as well and is crucial to their success. Seattle has a superstar in Julio Rodriguez and surrounded him with underrated, veteran bats like Jorge Polanco, Mitch Garver, and former/current Mariner Mitch Haniger. The names may be pedestrian, especially considering the loss of slugging Teoscar Hernandez, but the production is nothing to scoff at...since 2021, these bats rank as such in wRC+ (adjusted weighted runs created).
Jorge Polanco - 121 wRC+
Mitch Garver - 128 wRC+
Mitch Haniger - 109 wRC+
Meanwhile, Ty France severely underperformed his expected stats in 2023 and could bounce back to one of the league's best hitting 1B as he was from 2021 through 2022.
The Mariners' fielding will struggle due to the loss of Jose Caballero and lack of emphasis in defense with their FA and trade acquisitions but there are ways to mitigate that game-to-game with positioning. This team is built for a heroic playoff run like their division rival Rangers in 2023.
Seattle Mariners (+900), BetMGM Sportsbook
Los Angeles Dodgers: Best Regular Season Record
This bet is a lot less profitable than a Dodgers World Series title but it is difficult to understate how much the team improved this past offseason. The Dodgers were already one of three teams to win at least 100 games in 2023 and no team in the league made franchise-shifting acquisitions like them.
A perfect day at the plate for Shohei Ohtani!
3-for-3, 3B, 2 RBI, 2 R pic.twitter.com/vUd7UUYJqu
— MLB (@MLB) March 3, 2024
Between Ohtani, Yamamoto, and Glasnow, it is not outrageous to claim the Dodgers acquired the three most impactful players available. While Blake Snell is the reigning Cy Young Award winner, he remains unsigned and that may be due to teams privy to his run of luck along with injury concerns. On top of these acquisitions, the Dodgers' farm system remains one of MLB's best as they rank sixth according to FanGraphs with six in the top 100 and several pieces ready to contribute if called upon.
Los Angeles Dodgers Top 49 Prospects https://t.co/8wuTEIdZky
— FanGraphs Baseball (@fangraphs) March 1, 2024
The Dodgers have averaged 105.8 wins per year across the past four 162-game seasons. They led the MLB in team wins as recently as 2022 and were one game behind the San Francisco Giants for the league lead in 2021. 2023's 100-win season was a down year...
Los Angeles Dodgers (+160), BetMGM Sportsbook
MLB Betting Season Specials
Other season specials to dabble in...
- NL West to win World Series, +280 BetMGM
- Seattle Mariners to face LA Dodgers, +2500 BetMGM
- LA Dodgers to beat Seattle Mariners, +4000 BetMGM
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