RADIO
The Sentry Tournament of Champions will crown the first champion of the 2024 calendar year and the challenge will be to determine which six golfers can help us get crowned a champion in our respective contests. Scottie Scheffler had a bit of a rough outing today, but don't expect him to put forth another round where five people who started behind him pass him by.
The interesting part about this tournament is that the five guys ahead of Scheffler, have a total of one PGA Tour regular field event to their name in the last year. Chris Kirk barely held on to win the Honda Classic, while Xander Shauffele, Jordan Spieth, and Byeong Hun An all were invited to Hawaii on the merits of their season-long efforts, albeit winless. Akshay Bhatia cracked his invite as the winner of an Alternate Event that consisted of a Korn-Ferry level field, but the resort rock start will be looking to win the biggest event of his short PGA career.
You can find me on Twitter an unhealthy amount of the time @TheModelManiac, if you have any questions, compliments, or insults for me. My DFS style is very ownership-centric, and at times, this can make you feel like an unsuccessful DFS player, but when a sneaky, low-owned golfer comes through for you, it is all worth it. In this article, we are going to break down the tournament's Ballers and Crawlers and use that information to derive a player pool full of upside and leverage.
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Finishing Position Points vs. Ownership
The general logic for showdown has been to target golfers who played well the day before and particularly those who hit their irons well. This makes sense as you want to roster players who are playing good golf right now. We will also be using my DFS Showdown Model which is available for premium members on the website and in our discord.
Round 4 showdown adds the element of finishing position points to the mix. It provides an immense leverage opportunity for those of us brave enough to click on names with a T30 associated with them. There is a five-point difference between second place and 15th place, the points equivalent of one extra birdie in a player's round. If somebody sitting outside the top 20 entering Round 4 has an amazing day, making only one extra birdie than the guys in the top five, they essentially nullify the finishing position advantage. Did we mention that they will also come in at a quarter of the ownership?
Ownership in DFS is king. If you are part of the 2% of the field that has John Huh shooting -9, 98% of the field is missing out on those points. This is where money is made in DFS and if we ignore finishing position points for the most part, there is a decent chance that one of the top points scorers is sitting outside the top 10 entering Round 4. There will be instances where the leaders continue to play well, and that is not ideal, but how many times have we seen a 45% owned overnight leader have his nerves get the better of him and shoot over par? In this scenario, you have a major edge over half the field.
Bozo Brainwash Brigade
If I were to guess the most duplicated lineup tomorrow, this is most likely it. Folks, don't be like the 25+ people who play these six guys in the same lineup. How do you expect to profit when you enter a $5 entry to win and split it IF you hit, are you nutz!? The Chances the leaderboard looks like this tomorrow morning is VERY unlikely! Don't be a part of the Bozo Brainwash Brigade, please.
Round 4 Strategy
Birdies. Birdies everywhere. The more birdies out there, the less finishing position points matter. The average finishing position points to place inside the top 10 is 8.1 points. In a very windy round three, the average points scored was 41.85 points. In round 2, with hardly any wind (as we expect tomorrow) the field averaged 55.59 points.
- 41.85 + 8.1 = 49.95 --> 8.1 / 49.95 = 16.2%
- 55.59 + 8.1 = 63.69 --> 8.1 / 63.69 = 12.7%
A difference of 3.5% doesn't seem like much but if you think about it, 3.5% X 6 golfers could start adding up. That is IF everybody finished in the top 10 on average. We are going to pick our battles on golfers starting inside the top 10 and take advantage of the people chasing finishing position points, while we hopefully nail the lower-owned, high-upside golfers primed to climb into the top 10 in R4.
Usually, these golfers sitting outside the top-10, go off much earlier than the leaders in calmer, softer conditions, but because we are playing in Hawaii, the broadcast wants to make sure the leaders are on the course before most of America heads to bed. No real weather edge considering everyone is going off within two hours of each other off two tees.
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Round 4 Power Rankings
The Power Rankings for Round 4
These are the golfers I will be looking to slot into my lineups for round 4. The ownership numbers are projected for R4 of $5 PGA SHOWDOWN SINGLE ENTRY which is important to note, as contest size and entry fee impacts the ownership numbers of different golfers across the contests. Click here for a full field power rankings that is part of the DFS Showdown Model on RotoBaller's website.
$10,000+
Favorite play: This may be a little harsh, but the five guys ahead of Scottie Scheffler are seemingly fresh gazelles running from the current king of the PGA jungle, and depending on how sharp those Scotty Cameron claws of his are tomorrow, they may not stand a chance. Scheffler has the best clutch factor of anybody sitting inside the top-10 and is playing the best golf too. We get an $11,200 price tag on the World No. 1 who will be roaring up the leaderboard.
Other considerations: Viktor Hovland
$9,000+
Favorite play: Patrick Cantlay (T10) doesn't have as stellar a track record here as Collin Morikawa and he is not sitting in T3 like his buddy Xander, so we get the fourth-highest projected golfer in the model at ownership half of the two aforementioned chalk bombs. By his standards, Cantlay has not had a very good round of golf yet, despite sitting at -17 under par. If we get unconscious Cantlay, he has the purr-tential to make up the four strokes that separate him and the current leader, Chris Kirk.
Other considerations: Max Homa, Tyrrell Hatton.
$8,000+
Favorite play: Sam Burns is picking up some serious steam as the week unfolds. He has a really solid R4 scoring average and his putter can see him tip the DK scoring scales in our favor at less than 20% ownership. Build on that -5 that you shot in R3 and race up that leaderboard on those Bermuda greens.
Other considerations: Brian Harman
$7,000+
Favorite play: Eric Cole has been getting steadily better with each passing round on a course that he had not played on before. The calm condition should play perfectly into his ability to rattle off birdies on the back of scorching iron play and a putter that has been on the prowl lately. At the sprite age of 35, last year's rookie of the year will be looking to put forth one final good showing that improves him from his current spot of 23rd on the leaderboard.
Other considerations: Sepp Straka, Russell Henley, Tom Hoge, Adam Schenk.
$6,000+
Favorite play: Luke List will be looking to cash in on his putter which seems to be behaving beautifully right now. He is priced in the $6k range and sits T23 with a ball-striking repertoire that could quietly see him have his third round of +1.83 strokes gained in 2024. His birdie or better % and Sunday Charge metrics are rather out of place for somebody in this price range.
Other considerations: Nick Taylor, Erick Van Rooyen, Lucas Glover.
Good luck tomorrow, and as always, may the odds be ever in your favor!!
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