Outfielders - 2024 Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis, Draft Targets, Avoids

Eric Cross looks ahead to the 2024 fantasy baseball season and breaks down early ADP data for the outfield position along with ADPs he'll be targeting or fading in drafts.

It feels like the 2023 season just ended, but we're already about three months away from the start of the 2024 season and fantasy drafts are beginning to pick up. Especially now since fantasy football has come to an end for the most part.

The outfield position is once again a tricky position to navigate in 2024 drafts. It feels deep on the surface, but once you get into your draft, you'll find areas where the intriguing targets fizzle out. If you wait too long, you're going to wind up with an outfield core that more than likely underwhelms you, so that's why this is one of the positions I'll be focusing on early in my drafts. If you're able to secure at least two quality outfielders within the 7-9 rounds or so, that will set you up to take some upside plays or focus more on other positions during the middle rounds of your draft.

This ADP is from 20 NFBC Draft Champion drafts completed between November 1 and December 31. You'll find the ADP tables below along with my analysis of the ADP at the position, player values I like/dislike, etc. It's NEVER too early to discuss and draft for 2024! And lastly, this is ADP analysis and not my personal rankings.

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Outfield Fantasy Baseball ADP Analysis

Outfielders I Anticipate Having The Most Shares Of

1. Randy Arozarena, Tampa Bay Rays
2. Seiya Suzuki, Chicago Cubs
3. Evan Carter & Wyatt Langford, Texas Rangers
4. Jordan Walker, St. Louis Cardinals
5. James Outman, Los Angeles Dodgers
6. Jarren Duran, Boston Red Sox
7. Kerry Carpenter, Detroit Tigers
8. Jose Siri, Tampa Bay Rats
9. Ceddanne Rafaela, Boston Red Sox
10. Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins

If I miss out on the elite names or decide to target other positions in the first 2-3 rounds, Randy Arozarena is going to be a popular target of mine in Rounds 3/4 depending on the league size. Arozarena has put up three straight 20/20 seasons while posting his best full-season walk and strikeout rates of his career in 2023 at 12.2% and 23.9%, respectively. He also recorded the best AVG EV and hard-hit rate of his career. Another 20/20 season is a likely outcome in 2024.

By the time I get to the ADP range containing Seiya Suzuki, Wyatt Langford, Evan Carter, and Jordan Walker, I hopefully already have one or two outfielders. As it did last year, the outfield position tends to dry out after the top 15-20 names or so, but there are still some intriguing upside plays in the middle rounds with the aforementioned quartet serving as my favorite targets.

Out of these four, Carter is probably the hottest name in draft rooms right now after how he finished the season and performed in the postseason as a 21-year-old rookie. The ADP around pick 130 feels very reasonable for someone with his upside that debuted as well as he did. Carter has the upside to go 20/25 in 2024 with a solid AVG/OBP and plenty of run production hitting in the middle of Texas' loaded lineup. This ADP is honestly a steal. Langford should join him in Texas' outfield very early in the season and perhaps even on Opening Day. Given his blend of contact, approach, power, and speed, Langford is my #1 overall prospect for fantasy purposes and one of my favorite outfield targets in redraft leagues this season. A 20/20 season as a rookie should not be ruled out.

As for Suzuki and Walker, both are fairly undervalued right now. Over the final two months of the season, Suzuki slashed .350/.406/.667 with 15 doubles and 12 home runs in 207 plate appearances. Overall, Suzuki's metrics were very impressive across the board, with better than league-average marks in contact, zone contact, whiff, chase, and quality of contact. I'd be more than fine having him or Walker as my OF2. Walker's final 125 plate appearances resulted in a .339/.392/.545 slash line with five home runs and a 19.2% strikeout rate. Both players have significant ROI potential.

Lastly, Jarren Duran could wind up as a steal at his current 185 ADP. In 2023, Duran posted a 91.2% zone contact rate, 78.6% contact rate, 46.3% hard-hit rate, and 96th percentile sprint speed. If he's not traded, Duran should lead off a ton for Boston with guys like Rafael Devers and Triston Casas hitting behind him. Over a full season, Duran has the upside to post a 15/30 season with more than 90 runs. That would be phenomenal production for where he's being drafted.

Outfielder ADPs I'm Not Keen On

1. Cody Bellinger, Free Agent
2. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Miami Marlins
3. Esteury Ruiz, Oakland Athletics
4. Jackson Chourio, Milwaukee Brewers
5. Jarred Kelenic, Atlanta Braves

The most surprising name of this group is likely Jazz Chisholm. His inclusion here is 100% due to his durability concerns and not his talent level. Chisholm has averaged 29 home runs and 33 steals per 650 plate appearances during his career, but has yet to exceed 507 plate appearances in a season. We've also seen his zone contact, contact, and whiff rates get worse every season so far. Maybe he'll have a massive year, but I'll let someone else pay the cost.

With Bellinger, it's more about the minimal ROI opportunity at his near top-50 ADP. It was a nice bounce-back season in 2023, and I don't believe it was entirely fluky. However, Bellinger's 6.1% barrel rate, 87.9 mph AVG EV, and 31.4% hard-hit rate were all the worst of his career last season. On the flip side, Bellinger's zone contact, whiff, and strikeout rates were all the best of his career, too. The ADP isn't terrible, but we've seen how inconsistent Bellinger can be and I believe there's a better chance he returns a negative ROI than a positive one this season.

Drafting Esteury Ruiz goes against my entire drafting mentality and approach when it comes to stolen bases. I'd much rather spread my speed out so it's less of a blow if one of my top SB guys gets hurt. Plus, Ruiz doesn't really help you outside of one category.

Kelenic and Chourio are being drafted too high due to the trade and contract extension, respectively. Maybe a change of scenery will be positive for Kelenic, but there are still too many red flags and inconsistencies in his profile for me to invest in this season. He's had a strikeout rate north of 31% and a whiff rate near 34% in each of the last two seasons while running below-average contact rates. And on top of all of that, he might be in a platoon situation in left field.

Lastly, Chourio is a great talent with a bright future, especially for fantasy. But he's also an aggressive hitter and I'm wondering if that gets exploited during his rookie season. If I can get him closer to pick 200, I'm potentially on board. But that's not happening since he signed the contract extension back in early December. I'm currently in the middle of two NFBC drafts and he went 136th and 151st in those drafts.

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