Sleeper.com NFL DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for Chiefs vs. Broncos Thursday Night Football

Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 6 Thursday Night Football (October 12, 2023). Use Tony's NFL over/under props recommendations to win money on Sleeper.

Hello everybody and welcome to our Sleeper NFL DFS prop picks for Week 6 Thursday Night Football - Broncos vs. Chiefs! The 2023 NFL season is well underway and that means our friends over at Sleeper have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of.

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NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for TNF

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Jerick McKinnon OVER 13.5 Receiving Yards

Chiefs' backup running back Jerick McKinnon has been the go-to third-down back since he joined the Chiefs, as he has had at least three targets in seven of the last ten games. Last season against the Broncos, McKinnon posted receiving yards of 52 and 112 yards with at least six targets in each game. Isiah Pacheco was present in both of those games, operating as the early-down back, yet McKinnon was still heavily involved in the passing attack.

The Broncos allow the third-most yards to running backs this year (256), permitting an average of 51.2 receiving yards per game to backs. This number indicates how poorly they have defended screens and matched routes with linebackers out of the backfield. The Chiefs should give McKinnon at least three targets to surpass this threshold.

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Courtland Sutton OVER 3.5 Receptions

The Broncos' wide receiver Courtland Sutton has surpassed this threshold in three out of five games this year and is coming off a sloppy loss against the Jets. A year ago, Sutton finished with four receptions against the Chiefs on six targets. In the four games with Jerry Jeudy active, Sutton has one fewer target (19) but has run five more routes (112), making Sutton the better choice at a discounted rate.

Denver enters Thursday night as 10.5-point underdogs, suggesting that the Broncos are likely to be playing from behind. Denver already ranks sixth in pass rate this year (62%) due to falling behind early. Sean Payton has shown a preference for passing the ball, and they will need to rely on the passing game to keep up with Kansas City. In games where Sutton has run at least 30 routes, he has exceeded this threshold in 14 of his last 19 outings.

Isiah Pacheco OVER 0.5 Touchdowns

Over three straight games, Chiefs running back Isiah Pacheco has truly become the workhorse on early downs this season. In a similar situation against the Bears, Pacheco had eight rush attempts and targets in the red zone, underscoring how vital he is to the Chiefs' offense when they approach scoring territory.

The Broncos currently allow the most touchdowns in the NFL at 4.4 per game, and Pacheco currently commands a 65.4% share of the red zone rushing attempts. Over the last three weeks, that percentage has exceeded 75% twice, indicating that the Chiefs should have ample opportunities for their starting running back to punch in a touchdown. The Broncos have allowed the most goal-to-go rushes this year (27), and Pacheco should have a good chance to find the end zone.

Other Recommendations:

• Russell Wilson OVER 20.5 Completions
• Clyde Edwards-Helaire UNDER 0.5 Touchdowns
• Will Lutz OVER 5.5 Kicking Points

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