Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 4 Lineups

September 30, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 4 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

Welcome to Week 4 of the fantasy football season, where the gridiron battlefield is heating up and strategic decisions can make or break your fantasy team. As the NFL season unfolds, player performances and team dynamics continue to evolve, presenting us with a fresh array of start and sit opportunities. In this week's article, we'll dissect the matchups, analyze recent player performances, and delve into injury updates to help you navigate the turbulent waters of fantasy football. Whether you're looking for that under-the-radar gem to start or pondering benching a previously reliable player, we've got you covered with insights and recommendations to elevate your fantasy roster.

In the realm of fantasy football, knowledge is power, and understanding the intricate tapestry of Week 4 matchups is essential to formulating a winning game plan. I have scoured the league for the juiciest matchups, sleeper picks, and potential pitfalls to provide you with a comprehensive guide for setting your fantasy lineup. From explosive quarterbacks facing porous defenses to emerging running backs taking on stingy run defenses, we'll break down the trends and statistics to help you make informed start and sit decisions that could propel you to victory this week.

As we stand on the cusp of Week 4, injuries and unexpected developments can dramatically impact player availability and fantasy production. My goal is to equip you with the knowledge and foresight to adapt to these circumstances and optimize your fantasy lineup accordingly. With an eye on both established stars and rising talents, I offer recommendations on who to start with confidence and who to consider benching to maximize your fantasy potential and outscore the competition. Stay tuned for our insights and advice to conquer Week 4 of fantasy football.

Week 4 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Brock Purdy - QB, San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Brock Purdy has begun the 2023 season with solid performances, with one QB1 finish (Week 1) under his belt as well as a fringe QB1 (QB13) finish this past week. With the 49ers' well-balanced offense, Purdy has yet to be asked to carry the load of putting points on the board and it shows with his production in some key categories.

Although he ranks as just the QB23 in pass attempts (91), he has been productive with that limited amount with 736 yards (QB10) and four touchdowns (QB11). What has limited him the most so far this season has been the team's game scripts. While the 49ers have been playing with a lead in most games, it has brought down the need for Purdy to pass. The team currently ranks 26th in pass plays per game (30.3) and 30th in pace of play (1.92). These metrics have undoubtedly limited the upside for Purdy as he has two games with two passing scores and one with none.

In Week 4, he could get off to a quick start in a plus matchup against the Cardinals. A defense that currently ranks as one of the worst in the league in points allowed to the position with 21.1 FPPG, a number Purdy has yet to achieve. One thing that we have seen with the Cardinals to begin 2023 is that they will not just roll over and take it.

This team has been competitive in each game, which could be viewed as a positive for Purdy's outlook. Even though the Cardinals' implied total is only 14 points, look for Purdy to take early advantage of the matchup and pile up the points. He should be viewed as a fringe QB1 in Week 4 for fantasy managers looking for a potential high-upside play.

Najee Harris - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans

The decline of Najee Harris has been well documented to this point, and 2023 has been no exception. Through the first three games, he has only 139 yards (RB25) on just 35 carries (RB27) and has yet to find the end zone. All this has added up to a putrid 5.7 FPPG (RB51) and is much of the reason why he is giving away snaps to backup Jaylen Warren.

The two have all but split this Steelers backfield with Harris coming away with the slight edge in snap share (52.9%). He has been very hot and cold as a runner, showing flashes as evidenced by his 11.4% explosive run rate. But on the flip side, he is among the league leaders in stuffed runs (11). Add in the fact that Harris has become an afterthought in the passing game (RB49 with three receptions) and you have a running back that has become an albatross in fantasy lineups.

If there is ever going to be a week where we see Harris bounce back, it will be in Week 4. In this matchup, he will be facing a Texans defense that has long had a problem stopping the run. And in 2023, that is no different as they currently rank fifth in points allowed to opposing running backs (24.1 FPPG).

Look for the Steelers to establish the run against the Texans in an attempt to be more balanced on offense. Even splitting time with Warren, there should be enough meat on the bone for both backs to eat in this game. With that being the case, Harris should far exceed his paltry fantasy points per opportunity on the year (0.42) and produce RB2 value for fantasy managers clamoring for something from the former first-round pick.

Jakobi Meyers - WR, Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers

Jakobi Meyers has been a revelation in 2023 with his change of scenery in Las Vegas with the Raiders. Reuniting with his former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has clicked, as he is currently the WR5 on the season (22.3 FPPG). With Meyers, it is simply a case of a player making the most of the opportunities given to him and his efficiency with the usage. He currently ranks as just the WR30 in snap share (85.0%) and WR53 in route participation (88.6%).

But with those opportunities, he has provided production to the tune of 16 receptions (WR22) and two scores (WR5) on five red zone targets (WR4). Keep in mind that he has done this in just two games while also playing second fiddle to Davante Adams in the Raiders passing attack.

Look for the hot streak to continue in Week 4 for Meyers as he will be looking at a juicy matchup against a Chargers defense that is currently allowing the most points to opposing receivers on the season (47.3 FPPG). With this game carrying the second-highest expected point total in Week 4 (48.5), a shootout could be in the cards. This means additional scoring opportunities for a player like Meyers and putting him firmly in play for fantasy managers. He should be in lineups this week as a WR3 with WR2 upside given the plus matchup. Meyers is a no-brainer start right now in fantasy and you should continue to ride the hot hand.

Kyle Pitts - TE, Atlanta Falcons @ Jacksonville Jaguars

The 2023 season has not gotten off to the best of starts for Kyle Pitts as he works his way back from the injury that ended his 2022 season. It's clear when watching the games that he is not fully healthy, but his usage in the Atlanta Falcons offense is not helping his case either.

From the surface level, you see his 6.2 FPPG (TE21) and it causes fantasy managers to cringe. But when you dive deeper into the advanced metrics, some opportunities for Pitts are just falling by the wayside. He is top-10 in several key categories like targets (17), target share (20.0%), and routes run (93). He is also TE1 in deep targets (three) and air yards (201).

What is holding him back the most is the subpar play from Desmond Ridder, who has provided Pitts with a catchable target rate of 52.9% (TE40). If Ridder could become just average at quarterback, Pitts could quickly rise back to prominence and provide fantasy managers with the production they were expecting after spending a draft pick on him.

Pitts could finally get on track in Week 4 as he will have his best matchup to date against a Jaguars defense that is currently fourth in points allowed to the position (13.3 FPPG). Both teams currently have an implied point total of over 20, which could lead to an uptick in offensive production.

If the game happens to become a back-and-forth affair, look for Pitts to see his highest target share to date. Another juicy tidbit for Pitts in this matchup is that in his only previous game in London, he produced his only career 20 FP game with a nine-reception performance for 119 yards and a score. Hopefully for fantasy managers, London will continue to be good luck for Pitts as he looks to finish as a TE1 for the first time since Week 8 in 2022.

Week 4 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Deshaun Watson - QB, Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

Even though he has been the butt of a few jokes due to poor decision-making, from a fantasy perspective Deshaun Watson has been solid to begin the 2023 season. Over the first three games, he has provided two QB1 finishes, averaging 21.5 FP in those contests. But from a statistical point of view, Watson has been somewhat of an anomaly. He ranks outside the top 10 in most categories and has struggled with consistency as a passer. Even with as much of a headache as he has been to watch, his 18.5 FPPG still has exceeded his expected FPPG (16.5).

In Week 4, I have a feeling that we will see the bad side of Watson come out. He will be locked in a divisional matchup against a Baltimore Ravens defense that is among the league's best in points surrendered to quarterbacks to begin the season (13.2 FPPG). This matchup has the second-lowest implied total for the week (40.5), indicating that points will come at a premium. With the inconsistencies that we've seen from Watson so far in 2023, expecting a fantasy start-worthy performance in Week 4 is a bit of a stretch.

Rhamondre Stevenson - RB, New England Patriots @ Dallas Cowboys

Stevenson has been one of the biggest disappointments for fantasy managers to this point in 2023. Even though he is top-10 at the position in carries (46), his efficiency numbers have been poor, to say the least. His 134 rushing yards rank as the RB30 thanks in large part to his subpar yards per carry (2.9), which ranks as the RB56. But the real concern is his lack of presence as a pass-catcher and usage in the red zone. Even though he ranks inside the top 10 in most receiving categories at the position, his five red zone touches have capped his upside as he loses touches to Ezekiel Elliott.

Heading into Week 4, expecting a bounce-back game from Stevenson may not be in the cards. He will be heading to Dallas to face a Cowboys defense that has allowed just 11.5 FPPG to opposing running backs. Add in the fact that this will be Ezekiel Elliott's return to Dallas and you may see a split in workload in this backfield similar to Week 3 where it was almost dead even. Unless there is an increase in opportunities in the passing game this week, Stevenson will likely be looking at RB3 value at best in this game.

Mike Evans - WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints

Mike Evans has far exceeded fantasy managers' expectations to begin the 2023 season. Drafted as a WR3 in most instances, he is currently sitting at WR6 in FPPG with 21.6. Looking at most of the advanced analytics, you see a player that has been average at best as he ranks outside the top 10 in targets (28), receptions (17), and routes run (85). But where he has excelled is in getting open down the field (WR5 with 380 air yards) and scoring (WR2 with two touchdowns). Even more surprising is that he has been doing this with Baker Mayfield as the Buccaneers' starting QB.

But none of this will matter heading into Week 4 as Evans will be facing his kryptonite in Marshon Lattimore and the New Orleans Saints. You have to go back to 2018 to find the last time he exceeded 70 yards receiving. He also has just four touchdowns against the Saints in his last 13 games played.

On top of this, this game has the lowest implied total for Week 4, which means the scoring opportunities will be hard to come by. Taking all this into account, Evans will be started by most fantasy managers, but expectations should undoubtedly be tempered in this matchup.

Mark Andrews - TE, Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns

Even though he missed the first game of the 2023 season due to injury, Andrews has slid right back into expectations over the last two games as he currently sits at TE6 with 11.5 FPPG. With how much the position as a whole has struggled to begin the season, Andrews' nine receptions in two games have been easily ahead of the pack. As the Ravens continue to work out the kinks in the Todd Monken offense, look for Andrews to get more involved and increase his current 20.6% target share (TE7).

Before we see the improvements take hold, look for the Ravens to struggle in Week 4 in an extremely tough road matchup against the Cleveland Browns. The Browns' defense through three games has been the stingiest in terms of points allowed to opposing tight ends (2.0 FPPG).

Also, as I previously mentioned with Deshaun Watson above, the implied total for this game speaks to a very low-scoring contest. Factoring all this in, Andrews could be in store for a long day. He is a player who stays in starting lineups for fantasy managers, but with scoring opportunities limited in this game, finishing as a TE1 could be a tall task for Andrews in Week 4.

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