RADIO
Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome to another season of the superior FAAB waiver addition system. Week 1 supplied several key injuries with many ripple effects for us to account for. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
It's difficult to toe the line between savvy and overreaction, but do consider making a few calculated dart throws at RB/WR this early. Trust your process and us as analysts! For the first time in the 2023 season, here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 2.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Jordan Love (QB, GB) - 31% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Jordan Love delivered a hat trick of touchdowns en route to a strong 38-20 victory over the Bears. Haters will say he only completed 15 passes (27 attempts) and let Aaron Jones do all of the work after the catch. However, Love was missing Christian Watson and had a limited Romeo Doubs at No. 1.
We won’t count on big plays to come in droves, but Doubs and Watson being fully available will raise the ceiling. Love and the Pack travel to Atlanta’s dome in a decent matchup.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Baker Mayfield and the Bucs upset the Vikings in his TB debut on the back of 21-of-34 passing for 173 yards and two scores. He also added 11 rushing yards, most of which came on a gritty third-down scramble in the fourth quarter that helped secure the W. It took a while to get going, but then he was off to the races:
To see the day Baker Mayfield finished with, winning in his Bucs debut, it's wild to see how rough his start was. His first six drives:
1-3, 2 yards
2-4, 10
0-1, 0
0-0, 0
0-1, 0
0-2, 03-for-11 for 12 yards with 2:39 left in first half.
From there on: 18-for-23, 161, 2 TDs
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) September 11, 2023
He showed chemistry with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin but wound up completing passes to seven different receivers. The Bucs have their home opener against a reeling Bears team in Week 2, making Mayfield a viable streamer in deep formats despite the lower yardage ceiling.
Mac Jones (QB, NE) - 8% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
I was ready to once again bury Mac Jones after Philadelphia’s defense locked things down early on. But Jones showed resilience and battled back from 16 down to nearly hand Philly the loss. He connected for three touchdowns on 35-of-54 passing despite Jalen Carter’s constant presence in the pocket.
Jones should enjoy cleaner looks in shootout conditions against Miami next Sunday night. The Pats may opt to control the clock and keep its defense rested to keep up with the Dolphins, but Jones should need to push things to avoid going 0-2 regardless.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Kenneth Gainwell (RB, PHI) - 47% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%
Kenneth Gainwell handily outplayed D'Andre Swift as Rashaad Penny was a healthy scratch. The snap count was 41-19 in favor of Gainwell over Swift, but more staggering was the opportunity tally. Gainwell’s 14 carries and four targets crushed Swift’s one carry and two targets.
While I’d expect Swift, and eventually Penny, to work into a more even mix, Gainwell’s momentum cannot be ignored. I wish his efficiency was stronger, though. Philly beat writers highlighted Gainwell as the 1A option at RB and the results should improve with better performances from the Eagles as a whole.
Justice Hill (RB, BAL) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 12-18%
Aggressive Bid: 18-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-50%
Gus Edwards (RB, BAL) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-20%
Desperation Bid: 20-30%
The worst news of Sunday came when J.K. Dobbins’ torn Achilles was confirmed. Justice Hill stepped into the goal-line looks and more of the passing downs, leading to a weird 8-9-2 rushing line. Hill also had the only non-Dobbins carry before the injury.
Gus Edwards ran for 32 yards on eight carries and notched a two-point conversion, so he shouldn’t be overlooked. However, do we truly expect a contending Ravens team to simply roll with Hill, Edwards, and an aging Melvin Gordon III? Don’t be afraid to add Leonard Fournette or Kareem Hunt as Baltimore figures out its 2023 plans at RB.
Joshua Kelley (RB, LAC) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-16%
Aggressive Bid: 16-25%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%
Austin Ekeler is dealing with an ankle injury, which makes Joshua Kelley a slam-dunk add. This may help explain Kelley’s 16 carries in Week 1 (16-91-1), which was comparable to Ekeler’s 20 touches. Kelley was already a premier handcuff given the LAC team environment, but his strong Week 1 mixed with Ekeler’s injury makes him difficult to ignore.
Austin Ekeler has an ankle injury, according to Brandon Staley. His status for Wednesday's practice is "to be determined," Staley said.
— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) September 11, 2023
Kyren Williams (RB, LAR) - 30% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-18%
Desperation Bid: 18-30%
Kyren Williams looked superior to Cam Akers in Week 1, posting a 15-52-2 rushing line while Akers only got 29 yards despite 22 carries. This blows up the notion that Williams was simply a passing-down spellback to Akers. And over half of Akers’ carries came in the fourth quarter as LAR sat on their momentum.
Will Sean McVay stick with this hierarchy moving forward? If it’s anything close to an even split then we have to favor Williams given the edge in passing work, as well as the Week 1 results.
Zack Moss (RB, IND) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
We don't know if Moss (forearm) will return in time for Week 2, but Indianapolis sorely needs him. Deon Jackson was woefully ineffective and rookie Evan Hull "could miss time" with a knee injury according to HC Shane Steichen. Moss should be the starter when healthy until Jonathan Taylor returns(?).
Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-20%
Roschon Johnson was a bright spot in Chicago’s defeat, totaling 55 yards and a score on 11 touches. Khalil Herbert still led with 12 (nine carries, three catches) but Johnson nabbed the TD and led the passing work with six receptions on seven targets.
Operating as the third-down RB, Johnson looks to have a stable role to lean on while Herbert and D'Onta Foreman split early-down looks. He’s a bench stash until he gets a bigger piece of the pie, but this is an encouraging first week for the rookie.
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 14% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-15%
If you saw anything regarding the Week 1 Titans on social media then it was probably how Tyjae Spears outsnapped Derrick Henry, 34 to 30. Henry had 15 carries to Spears’ three, but Spears had four targets to Henry’s three with double the number of routes run.
Henry stayed fresh and still produced 119 total yards to Spears’ 28, but we weren’t expecting such strong usage for Spears this early. The usage likely tilts more toward Henry in the coming weeks, but TEN is willing to run this split when down. Ryan Tannehill played poorly in the loss. Do you believe in him?
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Puka Nacua (WR, LAR) - 23% rostered
FAAB Bid: 12-18%
Aggressive Bid: 18-30%
Desperation Bid: 30-50%
I could just copy his section from my preseason Draft Sleepers piece, but that feels like cheating. Puka Nacua went off with 10 catches for 119 yards on 15 targets (!) in LAR’s 30-13 upset of Seattle. He did a little bit of everything as Matthew Stafford’s No. 1 option with Cooper Kupp on IR.
Tutu Atwell (5-8% FAAB) also had 119 yards on six catches (eight targets) as the team’s deeper threat, while Van Jefferson flopped (4-24-0, one huge, wide-open drop). Kupp is no guarantee to return after just four games missed and Nacua looks like a man who stays on the field with Kupp in most two-wide sets anyway.
Zay Jones (WR, JAX) - 30% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%
Zay Jones posted a zesty 5-55-1 line against the Colts and is the clear No. 2 WR for Trevor Lawrence. Christian Kirk operated exclusively as the slot man, limited to the three-wide sets. It’s a horrible look for Kirk and his fantasy teams, but this is outstanding for Jones.
Calvin Ridley and Zay Jones are running as the Jaguars top 2 WRs. Christian Kirk is at 53% of the snaps. Aligns with preseason usage.
— Mike Clay (@MikeClayNFL) September 10, 2023
Romeo Doubs (WR, GB) - 31% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-25%
Romeo Doubs made the most of his limited Week 1 snaps, catching four balls for 26 yards and two touchdowns. Coming off of a hamstring injury, Doubs played roughly half of Green Bay’s offensive snaps while Christian Watson sat with his own hammy injury.
The Packers enjoyed a classic Aaron Jones superstar performance but Doubs’ limited package included valuable red-zone looks. Even if Watson comes back for Week 2, a full-go Doubs is a clear starter and primary read near the end zone. If Jordan Love steps up this year then a second-year Doubs is a nice 12-team play.
Rashid Shaheed (WR, NO) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Rashid Shaheed continued his 2022 run of splash plays by kicking off 2023 with 100 total yards and a TD. Volatility will limit his No. 3 role behind Chris Olave and Michael Thomas, but the Saints simply couldn’t get the running game going against Tennessee. This left more for the pass-catchers and may foreshadow how Derek Carr’s offense attacks in ‘23.
Rashid Shaheed with a cool 3.56 yards/route run in Week 1, trailing only Tyreek (6.14) and Brandon Aiyuk (4.30) among players with 10+ routes.
Going back to last year, only Tyreek (3.26) has a higher rate of yards/route run than Shaheed (2.72) for all players with 100+ routes.
— Rich Hribar (@LordReebs) September 11, 2023
Kendrick Bourne (WR, NE) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-12%
Desperation Bid: 12-15%
Kendrick Bourne enjoyed an entire game’s worth of negative gamescript to the tune of 64 yards and two scores on six catches (11 targets). The Pats were without DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton is on IR, which lifted Bourne alongside JuJu Smith-Schuster (4-33-0, gross) and Demario Douglas (4-40-0). New England should need plenty of throwing once again in Week 2 going against Miami, making Bourne a decent flex play even if Parker returns.
Rashee Rice (WR, KC) - 36% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20
TNF feels like eons ago, but you’ll recall Rashee Rice caught 3-of-5 targets for 29 yards and a touchdown while Kadarius Toney and Skyy Moore looked horrendous. His role could quickly grow beyond “rotational player” and the upside of a regular in Patrick Mahomes’ offense is worthy of stashing.
Allen Robinson II (WR, PIT) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Allen Robinson paced the Steelers with 64 receiving yards in a tough loss where Kenny Pickett struggled to push downfield. Diontae Johnson pulled up with a hamstring injury that looked serious, which put more emphasis on AR and Calvin Austin III in the short/intermediate game. If Johnson faces a prolonged absence then a piece of the preseason Pittsburgh hype should trickle down to Robinson.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Hunter Henry (TE, NE) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Hunter Henry hauled in 5-of-6 targets for 56 yards and a touchdown, though he did have a brutal late-game drop that hindered NE’s comeback efforts. He worked well ahead of Mike Gesicki, nearly doubling his snaps, routes run, and targets, per PFF. Henry remains a strong red-zone target on a team lacking size and he has chemistry with Mac Jones.
As a general aside, I know the entire TE position was ravaged by injuries and underperformance in Week 1. I would caution you to leap too strongly at the guys who mustered solid lines unless you came out of your draft with a low-capital TE that could easily be replaced.
Hayden Hurst (TE, CAR) - 11% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Hayden Hurst led the Panthers with seven targets, but he may be in the doghouse for chucking Bryce Young’s first NFL TD pass into the stands. His 27 routes run trailed the WR trio of Adam Thielen, Jonathan Mingo, and Terrace Marshall Jr., who all had ~40. The lower volume with Carolina makes him a lesser option but he should be a constant presence on passing downs as the Panther WRs find their footing.
Logan Thomas (TE, WAS) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-8%
Logan Thomas’ seven targets were tied with Jahan Dotson for the team lead. His 32 routes run trounced the five from John Bates and four for Cole Turner. The veteran is healthy and enjoys the upside of being a featured TE in Eric Bieniemy’s offense. His ceiling grows as Sam Howell’s comfort rises, so proceed accordingly, per your faith in that occurring.
"Knowing how vital the Tight End is to this offense..."
Logan Thomas led Washington in targets today with 8 (25.8% target share).
The last time Thomas was healthy (2020), he led the position in route share (91%) and ranked 5th in FPG (13.8) with 16.3 FPG over his final 6 games https://t.co/XPMfGtn5Cr
— Scott Barrett (@ScottBarrettDFB) September 10, 2023
(By the way, Zach Ertz had 10 targets on the other side of the ball in Week 1. He’s a decent PPR target for deep leaguers.)
Durham Smythe (TE, MIA) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1
Durham Smythe played all 62 offensive snaps on Sunday, per PFF, and his seven targets trailed only Tyreek Hill (13). The 3-44-0 box score won’t incite a mob clamoring for his services, but Smythe could’ve easily had the touchdown that went to River Cracraft.
Both were open on crossers and Tua Tagovailoa opted for the deeper man in Cracraft. Smythe may rarely be the primary read but the volume in a vicious passing attack makes him worth a look.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
New York Giants Defense (at ARI) - 7% rostered
FAAB Bid: 3-5%
Aggressive Bid: 5-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-8%
The Giants are either entering this dream matchup entirely broken or, more likely, supremely pissed off. The Cardinals made the Commanders sweat out a gritty win but enjoyed some breaks in their favor with Sam Howell adjusting to the NFL. I expect the Giants to tee off and channel their Week 1 frustrations on a subpar Arizona squad.
Cleveland Browns Defense (at PIT) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-2%
The Browns just stopped, dropped, and opened up shop on Joe Burrow and the Bengals. While they enjoyed their home crowd and plenty of whiteboard material in their sails, Cleveland should show up in force for another divisional showdown at Pittsburgh. The Steelers were dogged by San Francisco and may be missing Diontae Johnson (hamstring), making CLE a solid target.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Defense (vs CHI) - 21% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
If there is a Justin Fields leap to come, it didn’t happen in Week 1. It’s understandable that adjusting to a new offense with different pieces can take time and I am not burying Fields. That said, he absorbed four sacks while Chicago yielded a pair of turnovers to Green Bay. Tampa’s “Bay Brother” illustrated lingering weaknesses in Chicago and the Bucs should generate several sack/turnover opportunities at home.
Indianapolis Colts Defense (at HOU) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
The Colts hung tough with a strong Jacksonville unit but would fall short in Week 1. Indy was flying all over the field and putting Jags, Tank Bigsby in particular, in dicey spots that led to a couple of turnovers.
Now they hit Houston, where C.J. Stroud was just sacked five times by Baltimore while only scoring nine points. The sportsbook total for this game has already slipped to 40 points, making it the lowest outside of NYG-ARI (38.5).
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