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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on September 10, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. I'm aware that NFL season has arrived, but I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of MLB games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's Sunday main slate features a robust 13-game matinee mix. The weather looks like it could get tricky, so it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 9/10/2023 and the slate locking at 1:05 PM ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs. NYY ($10,200 DK, $10,300 FD)
All things considered, Corbin Burnes is my favorite pitching play on the slate. Through 28 starts, he sports a 3.39 xERA and 3.88 xFIP. That includes a .343 xSLG, 86.8 mph average exit velocity, .224 xBA, 5.7% barrel rate, 33.7% hard-hit rate, and .287 xwOBA. Historically, Burnes has also featured elite strikeout numbers. This season, it sits at a solid 25% strikeout rate. With price as a consideration, Burnes offers the most worthwhile upside.
The Yankees have been one of baseball's weaker offenses in the second half. They're scoring 3.9 runs per game since the All-Star break. That includes a weak 87 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, alongside a .669 OPS, .295 wOBA, and a generous 26.3% strikeout rate.
Grayson Rodriguez, BAL vs. BOS ($7,600 DK, $9,000 FD)
Grayson Rodriguez's overall numbers leave something to be desired, but he's been fairly dominant since being recalled from the minors. Over nine second-half starts, Rodriguez owns a 2.85 ERA. That includes a 3.79 xFIP, a .298 slugging percentage, a .257 wOBA, a .213 batting average, and a 23.2% strikeout rate. He was the top pitching prospect in baseball entering 2023, and Rodriguez seems to finally be hitting his stride in the majors.
The Red Sox aren't the easiest opponent but they also aren't terribly intimidating. Boston is scoring a solid 4.9 runs per game in the second half. That includes a 106 wRC+, .782 OPS, and .335 wOBA. The matchup isn't ideal, but Rodriguez is objectively underpriced at this point. I'm looking to him for a value SP2.
Also consider: Gerrit Cole, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jose Altuve – 2B, HOU vs. Rich Hill ($6,200 DK, $4,200 FD)
Jose Altuve stands out above all other second basemen on this slate. He's slashing .315/.401/.551 with 15 home runs and 13 stolen bases. That includes a .454 xSLG, 10.4% barrel rate, and .351 xwOBA. Altuve is slugging .506 against left-handed pitchers this season, part of a .510 career mark.
The 43-year-old Rich Hill is fully cooked at this point. Through 28 appearances, Hill sports a 5.79 xERA and 4.82 xFIP. That includes a .488 xSLG, 10.2% barrel rate, .284 xBA, and .365 xwOBA. Right-handed hitters are slugging .525 against Hill with 22 home runs against him this season.
Max Muncy – 3B, LAD vs. Trevor Williams ($5,000 DK, $3,400 FD)
Max Muncy feels underpriced for a guy flirting with a 40-home run season. Muncy is slashing .207/.333/.484 with 33 home runs and a 120 wRC+. He carries a .514 slugging percentage against right-handed pitchers, including a .285 ISO and .366 wOBA.
Trevor Williams is consistently among the best pitchers to target. Through 27 starts, he sports a 5.61 xERA and 5.21 xFIP. That includes a .505 xSLG, 10.8% barrel rate, .278 xBA, and a 17% barrel rate.
Ryan O'Hearn – 1B, BAL vs. Brayan Bello ($3,400 DK, $2,600 FD)
Ryan O'Hearn is an excellent value play today. He's slashing .30305/.338/.509 with 12 home runs this season. That includes a .482 xSLG, 10.7% barrel rate, 37.2% sweet-spot rate, 53.5% hard-hit rate, and 92.3 mph average exit velocity.
In general, Brayan Bello does a pretty good job of not getting shelled. That said, left-handed hitters are slugging .496 against him this season with 11 home runs.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Ronald Acuna Jr. – OF, ATL vs. Luis Ortiz ($6,900 DK, $4,900 FD)
His price is bordering on insane these days, but Ronald Acuna Jr. remains worth the price of admission. He sports an absurd .658 xSLG, 14.9% barrel rate, 55.1% hard-hit rate, 94.7 mph average exit velocity, .354 xBA, .462 xwOBA, and an 11.3% walk rate. That amounts to a .336/.417/.586 slash line with 35 home runs and 64 stolen bases.
Luis Ortiz is one of the worst pitchers on this slate. Through 14 appearances, he owns an atrocious 6.98 xERA. That includes a 5.32 xFIP, .542 xSLG, .302 xBA, 92.3 mph average exit velocity, 49.6% hard-hit rate, .394 xwOBA, and 11% barrel rate.
Max Kepler – OF, MIN vs. Tylor Megill ($3,800 DK, $2,800 FD)
Max Kepler is not getting enough credit for how much he is ripping the ball this season. He's slashing .250/.318/.476 with 21 home runs and a 116 wRC+. That includes a .509 xSLG, 12.5% barrel rate, 48.3% hard-hit rate, 37.2% sweet-spot rate, .271 xBA, .353 xwOBA, and 92.1 mph average exit velocity.
Tylor Megill has been an absolute gas can this season. He carries a 6.43 xERA and 4.96 xFIP. Megill has surrendered a .501 xSLG, .296 xBA, 90.6 mph average exit velocity, 10.1% barrel rate, 44.2% hard-hit rate, and a .381 xwOBA.
Nelson Velazquez – OF, KC vs. Jose Berrios ($3,200 DK, $3,100 FD)
Nelson Velazquez's price has yet to catch up with his output. Across only 38 games played this season, he's mashed 12 home runs and owns a .245/.303/.618 slash line. That includes a .574 xSLG, 20.5% barrel rate, 48.8% hard-hit rate, 90.5 mph average exit velocity, and .380 xwOBA.
Jose Berrios is not the most vulnerable pitcher on this slate, but his 3.68 ERA does defy his actual performance. Berrios sports a 4.70 xERA, comprised of a .444 xSLG, .262 xBA, 8.9% barrel rate, and .333 xwOBA.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Trevor Williams
Favorite Plays: Freddie Freeman, Max Muncy, Will Smith, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta
Atlanta Braves vs. Luis Ortiz
Favorite Plays: Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley
Also Consider: Houston Astros, Minnesota Twins
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