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Derrick Henry or Tony Pollard - who should I draft for 2023 fantasy football drafts? Brandon analyzes NFL players with similar values, and tells you who to pick.
Welcome RotoBallers to our ADP duel comparing Derrick Henry vs. Tony Pollard for 2023 fantasy football drafts. Fantasy football has become a cultural phenomenon, captivating sports enthusiasts and casual fans alike with its unique blend of strategy and competition. As the popularity continues to soar, the tools and metrics used to gain a competitive edge have evolved.
One metric that holds immense value for fantasy football players is the Average Draft Position (ADP). ADP serves as a critical guide in draft preparation, helping managers navigate the player selection process and build a winning roster.
In this article, we will delve into the intricacies of ADP between two similarly valued players and how you can effectively attack the best player to construct a championship-caliber fantasy team.
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Breakdown Of ADP
Average Draft Position, commonly referred to as ADP, represents the average position at which a player is drafted in fantasy football leagues. ADP is typically derived from data collected from various mock drafts and real drafts conducted by fantasy football enthusiasts. This powerful metric serves as a benchmark, indicating the perceived value and popularity of players within the fantasy football community.
Understanding ADP is essential for fantasy managers, as it provides crucial insights into player rankings and draft trends and helps determine the optimal time to select specific players. By incorporating ADP into their draft strategy, managers can effectively gauge player availability, identify potential steals, and avoid reaching for players too early in the draft.
ADP acts as a compass, guiding fantasy managers through the unpredictable terrain of the draft. It offers an overview of player rankings, allowing managers to gauge which players are typically selected in the early rounds and which may fall to later rounds.
This knowledge can help managers identify "value picks," where players with a higher ADP can be secured at a lower draft position. Additionally, analyzing ADP trends over time can provide valuable insights into player fluctuations and market sentiment, helping managers stay ahead of the competition. By incorporating ADP data into their draft strategy, managers can make well-informed decisions, ensuring they assemble a well-balanced team capable of maximizing points and securing victory.
Draft strategy is a fundamental aspect of fantasy football success, and ADP plays a pivotal role in its development. Armed with the knowledge of ADP, managers can adopt different strategies based on the unique characteristics of their league. For example, "Zero RB" and "Late-Round QB" strategies capitalize on ADP data to determine when to prioritize running backs and quarterbacks, respectively.
Conversely, understanding ADP can help managers identify the optimal time to select high-value wide receivers or tight ends. By blending their draft strategy with ADP insights, managers can create a well-rounded roster that maximizes value and minimizes risk, setting themselves up for success throughout the fantasy football season.
Average Draft Position (ADP) serves as a vital tool in the arsenal of fantasy football managers. By comprehending the definition, importance, and strategic utilization of ADP, managers can make informed decisions during the draft, ultimately constructing a championship-caliber team. With ADP as their guide, fantasy managers can navigate the intricacies of the draft process, identify value picks, and adapt their strategy to gain a competitive edge. Let's break down the ADPs of RBs Derrick Henry and Tony Pollard and see who the better pick for your fantasy football team may be.
Derrick Henry - RB, Tennessee Titans
RB8 - ADP: 20th Overall
Derrick Henry has been the model of consistency in fantasy football over the last four years. As the focal point of the Tennessee Titans offense, Henry has garnered the most carries at the position in three out of the last four seasons, while also finishing no worse than RB4 in fantasy PPG over that span.
Even though he does not offer much in PPR formats as a pass catcher (career-high 33 receptions in 2022), his massive workload (RB2 with 83% opportunity share) presents steady scoring for fantasy managers to lean on. With Derrick Henry, you are almost assured of double-digit touchdown production, something he has accomplished in five straight seasons. Consistency like this is hard to come by at the position, which is something that fantasy managers strive for.
Projecting forward into the upcoming 2023 season, the question with Derrick is when will father time catch up to him? Many analysts have predicted his downfall for the past couple of seasons, but he continues to defy the odds despite the heavy workload. The downfall for Henry may soon be accelerated, not because of anything of Henry's doing, but due to a Titans offense that is trending in the wrong direction.
A lack of skilled pass catchers, question marks at quarterback, and an offensive line that has gotten worse year-over-year will almost certainly plague Henry and his production. Sure, he will continue to be among the league leaders yet again in rushing attempts, but as defenses exploit the offensive line, Henry's ability to create yardage will be put to the test. Also, without the bonus of being a threat out of the backfield, we could be witnessing the worst fantasy performance in years.
Tony Pollard - RB, Dallas Cowboys
RB9 - ADP: 22nd Overall
With the rapid decline of Ezekiel Elliot, Tony Pollard was awarded more opportunities in 2022 (48.1% opportunity share, up from 38.9% in 2021) and he flashed potential fantasy stardom. Even though he ranked just 23rd in carries (193) and 17th in receptions (39), his efficiency was off the charts, finishing as the RB8 in fantasy PPG (15.6).
Pollard was a big play waiting to happen last year, ranking as the RB3 in breakaway runs (17), RB5 in yards per touch (5.9), and RB2 in yards per reception (9.5). Even with Ezekiel Elliott scoring 12 touchdowns from inside the red zone, Pollard added six himself. He certainly proved many of his doubters wrong in 2022 for those saying that he was primarily a change-of-pace running back.
As we head into the 2023 season, Pollard has been one of the more hyped players at the position by fantasy analysts. There is a general excitement for what he can do as the centerpiece of the Cowboys' rushing attack and given even more of an opportunity share. There is also a change at offensive coordinator as Kellen Moore is out, and in comes Brian Schottenheimer. Mike McCarthy is expected to become the play-caller, but the offensive philosophy for the Cowboys will likely shift to a run-first-based attack.
Also, something to look out for is the addition of a veteran running back behind Pollard (likely the return of Elliot). With that aside, if Pollard can increase his workload to around 220 carries and 50 receptions, he could undoubtedly push for a finish as a Top 5 fantasy running back.
Fantasy Football Verdict
The battle is one of two players heading in opposite directions. The fantasy stalwart that is Derrick Henry against the up-and-coming Tony Pollard. From a surface point of view, the two offenses will likely be run very similarly. More positives go in Pollard's favor with better skill positions players around him, better quarterback play, and most importantly, a better offensive line.
Yes, Henry should outproduce Pollard in terms of rushing yards, but with Pollard's upside as a pass catcher, it creates a clear divide as we could see these two players be very close in the touchdown department. With that being said, it is a narrow victory, but at the end of the day when you're on the clock, Tony Pollard should be the selection in your fantasy drafts.
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