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The top daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel and DraftKings on July 9, 2023. Kevin Hickey's MLB DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Happy Sunday, RotoBallers! I'm excited to be covering another fun DFS slate. The MLB season has been good to me in the early going, so I'm looking forward to sifting through another crop of games. Let's break down my favorite plays from today's main slate!
Today's main slate features an enticing 10-game matinee mix. The weather looks to be mostly clear today, but it's essential to check in with your preferred meteorologist ahead of lock. I'll point out the standout plays, but there will be plenty of opportunities to get creative with your builds on this slate.
This article will provide my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel on 7/9/2023 and the slate locking at 1:35 pm ET. The lineup picks will range from some elite players to mid-priced options and value plays. You can also read more DFS advice and lineup picks for other sports here. It's also essential to monitor injury news and today's MLB starting lineups. Now that we got all that out of the way, it's onto the picks!
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DraftKings, FanDuel Pitchers - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Jesus Luzardo, MIA vs. PHI ($9,900 DK, $10,300 FD)
Jesus Luzardo is my favorite pitching play on today's slate. He's coming off a string of dominant performances, posting three consecutive shutout outings featuring eight-plus strikeouts in each. Through 18 starts, Luzardo boasts an impressive 3.32 ERA, including a 3.48 xERA, 3.49 xFIP, .293 xwOBA, .225 xBA, 6.2% walk rate, and .391 xSLG. The best part of Luzardo's game is his 28.6% strikeout rate and 30.8% whiff rate. He's capable of surrendering some power, but the consistent strikeouts keep Luzardo's floor firm.
The Phillies aren't the easiest opponent on paper, but it's a reasonably favorable matchup for Luzardo. Philadelphia carries a weak 98 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, alongside a similarly awful 25.5% strikeout rate. There's also a strong possibility that Bryce Harper will be out of the lineup today after exiting Saturday's contest with right elbow soreness. Any one of Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Trea Turner, or Nick Castellanos is capable of a big day, but it's still a good spot for Luzardo.
Strikeouts are the goal with this pick. Luzardo is in a good way right now and should be able to rack up something approaching double-digit punchouts against this Phillies offense.
Logan Gilbert, SEA vs. HOU ($8,600 DK, $10,100 FD)
Logan Gilbert is fresh off his best outing of the season, tossing a complete-game shutout against the San Francisco Giants earlier this week. Overall, his ERA is down to 3.82 for the season, and the underlying numbers suggest he's due for more positive regression.
Gilbert sports a 3.38 xERA, including a 3.64 xFIP, .289 xwOBA, 24.8% strikeout rate, and 4.7% walk rate. He doesn't flash the same upside as Luzardo, but Gilbert is well-positioned to succeed today at a very approachable price.
Houston carries a perfectly average 100 wRC+ on the season, including similarly underwhelming numbers like a .718 OPS, .156 ISO, and .314 wOBA. They're not a terribly exciting offense to begin with, but the Astros lineup is watered down at the moment. Both Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve are on the injured list, leaving them with little consistent offensive production outside of Kyle Tucker.
Gilbert isn't the most exciting play on this slate, but I do view him as a safer option. The Astros are beaten up these days, and Gilbert won't be expensive to roster.
Also consider: Aaron Nola, Joe Ryan, Kyle Hendricks
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DraftKings, FanDuel Infielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Matt McLain – SS, CIN vs. Wade Miley ($5,300 DK, $3,700 FD)
Matt McLain's rookie campaign gets overshadowed by Elly De La Cruz somewhat, but his performance has been comparably impressive. He's slashing .294/.363/.510 with seven home runs through his first 48 career games. That includes a .453 xSLG, .347 xwOBA, and a 12.5% barrel rate. What sets him apart from De La Cruz today is McLain's prowess against southpaw pitching, slugging .667 with a 172 wRC+.
Wade Miley is having a strong season on the surface, sporting a 3.36 ERA through 12 starts. However, negative regression is right around the corner. Miley carries 4.79 xERA, including a 4.95 xFIP, .339 xwOBA, .466 xSLG, .269 xBA, and 9.2% barrel rate.
Jake Burger – 3B, CWS vs. Steven Matz ($4,100 DK, $3,100 FD)
Jake Burger has emerged as one of the league's better power hitters this season, slugging 19 home runs thus far. He boasts a phenomenal .526 xSLG, 51% hard-hit rate, and 19.95 barrel rate. Burger has been particularly dominant against left-handed pitching, posting a .353 ISO and 152 wRC+.
Steven Matz has been vulnerable this season, surrendering a .419 xSLG, .338 xwOBA, and .278 xBA. Right-handed hitters are slugging .502 against him this season.
Mike Ford – 1B, SEA vs. Brandon Bielak ($2,100 DK, $2,400 FD)
If you're looking for a punt play, Mike Ford is a fantastic value. He's slashing .278/.333/.620 with eight home runs in just 30 games this season. That includes a .478 xSLG, 17% barrel rate, and 49.1% hard-hit rate. There's some pinch-hit risk with Ford if a southpaw pitcher enters the game, but he's still a standout play for near the minimum price.
Brandon Bielak is one of the weakest pitchers on this slate. He's surrendered a .508 xSLG, .283 xBA, .373 xwOBA, 49.4% hard-hit rate, and a 12.9% barrel rate. That all amounts to an ugly 5.99 xERA.
DraftKings, FanDuel Outfielders - MLB DFS Lineup Picks
Luis Robert Jr. – OF, CWS vs. Steven Matz ($5,700 DK, $4,000 FD)
Again picking on Steven Matz, Luis Robert Jr. is a fantastic play. He's launched 13 home runs since the beginning of June, running up his total to 26 this season. That includes a .541 xSLG and a 15.9% barrel rate. Robert is slugging .658 against left-handed pitchers, alongside a .447 wOBA and 192 wRC+. His price tag is as expensive as it's been all season, but Robert is worth spending up for.
Christopher Morel – OF, CHC vs. Domingo German ($4,700 DK, $3,500 FD)
Christopher Morel didn't maintain the torrid trajectory he was on when he was called up in May, but he's remained a productive hitter. Morel carries a .276/.323/.592 slash line with 15 home runs. That includes a .509 xSLG, 47.9% hard-hit rate, 91.5 mph average exit velocity, and 15.7% barrel rate.
Despite miraculously tossing a perfect game two weeks ago, Domingo German has experienced a largely disappointing 2023 campaign. He carries a 4.45 xERA, .433 xSLG, and .328 xwOBA. Right-handed hitters have been particularly successful against German, posting a .447 slugging percentage and .319 wOBA.
Kerry Carpenter – OF, DET vs. Chris Bassitt ($3,300 DK, $2,700 FD)
If you're after salary relief in the outfield, Carpenter is a worthwhile option. He sports an impressive .477 xSLG, 11.2% barrel rate, 44.9% hard-hit rate, .347 xwOBA, and 91.1 mph average exit velocity. That amounts to a .267/.325/.486 slash line with eight home runs through 45 games this season.
Carpenter looks particularly good day opposite Chris Bassitt. Despite his track record as a solid pitcher, Bassitt cannot figure out left-handed hitting these days. Lefties are slugging .574 against him with a .400 wOBA and 13 home runs.
DraftKings, FanDuel MLB DFS Stacks
Seattle Mariners vs. Brandon Bielak
The Mariners are ridiculously underpriced today on DraftKings. Outside of Julio Rodriguez, every other player in their lineup is below $4,000 today, and even Eugenio Suarez has dipped below $3,000. They haven't been the most lethal offense this season, but there's undeniable talent in this lineup. Stacking them is incredibly accessible today.
Brandon Bielak is possibly the worst pitcher on this slate. He's surrendered a .508 xSLG, .283 xBA, .373 xwOBA, 49.4% hard-hit rate, and a 12.9% barrel rate. That all amounts to an ugly 5.99 xERA. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters are slugging north of .490 against Bielak this season.
Favorite Plays: Julio Rodriguez, Eugenio Suarez, Ty France, Jarred Kelenic, Teoscar Hernandez
Chicago White Sox vs. Steven Matz
The White Sox offense has finally started realizing their potential lately. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jimenez are on fire, while Jake Burger and Andrew Vaughn remain viable threats. Zach Remillard has etched out a spot for himself atop the batting order. They have roster options encompassing every price tier, making stacks very achievable. They underwhelmed yesterday, but today looks like a great spot for Chicago to succeed.
Steven Matz is not a particularly imposing pitcher. He's surrendered a .419 xSLG, .338 xwOBA, and .278 xBA. Right-handed hitters are slugging .502 against him this season, and the White Sox are loaded with right-handed talent. Matz has been working out of the bullpen recently, so he likely isn't stretched out enough to pitch very deep today. This could develop into a bullpen game, and that would be good news for Chicago because the Cardinals' bullpen boasts a weak 4.55 ERA.
Favorite Plays: Luis Robert Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Jake Burger, Zach Remillard, Andrew Vaughn
Also Consider: Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox
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