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Today's PrizePicks NASCAR DFS prop picks for the Toyota Save Mart 350 at Sonoma by Chris Wassel. Use his NASCAR over/under props recommendations to win money on PrizePicks.
June 11, 2023, on a Sunday afternoon features the Toyota Save Mart 350 from the Sonoma Raceway in Sonoma, California. This is the 16th 2023 edition of NASCAR DFS on PrizePicks. Our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. However, this time, these props will be available on a special Memorial Day weekend edition. Also, keep in mind that due to inclement weather, the race may take place on Monday.
PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, 5-player, or even 6-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win. As for the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
Our partners at PrizePicks offer some of the best, and easiest-to-win, NASCAR DFS games in the industry. There are no large-field tournaments filled with sharks where you have to get lucky just to place. At PrizePicks, you're not playing against other people, you're just playing against the projections.
PrizePicks and NASCAR focus on Fantasy Score, which has a scoring system where the first nets 45 points, the second is worth 42, the third is worth 41, and so on. Every lap led NOW equals an extra 0.25 points. Every fastest clocked lap equals an extra 0.45 points. Laps led are 0.25 points per lap and place differential is plus or minus one point. Also, stage wins are worth one point apiece. For NASCAR, we are going to try and focus on the main board's Fantasy Score and see which players may go over or under their projected point totals. Let's see what the board offers today!
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Fantasy Score Point Totals
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Joey Logano LESS Than 36.5 Points
The numbers appear tempting for Joey Logano but he did come through the past two times from the LESS position. Can he come through and score a little less than expected at Sonoma?
Now, could Logano get impacted by the cooler track conditions? The answer is yes. However, he starts 17th from the middle of the pack on Sunday. Can he move up? Absolutely. He needs to finish at least 11th which means Logano's Ford would have to flirt with the Top 10. It's not unreasonable but the risk to go contrarian is reasonable here.
Kevin Harvick LESS Than 37.5 Points
The choice is one of our safest for the week. Okay, Kevin Harvick starts 21st and was nearly a second slower than pole-sitter Denny Hamlin. A top-10 position doles out 34 points. That place differential of +11 is not likely. So, a top-15 is only six spots higher and even that is not enough as Harvick would have to likely finish 13th or better. Times are different and even practice time suggest a slower time for the No. 4 Ford.
Again, the Ford may not be quite the same as last year. Expect Harvick to start dropping off during the final stage this time around and take the Less.
Kyle Larson MORE Than 56.5 Points
The goal is to keep hammering this again and again and again. Kyle Larson simply needs to finish the race in a good enough position. His Hendrick Motorsports Racing car is ridiculously fast and he loves leading laps. The longer the run, the more laps Larson might be able to lead. Again, the No. 5 car will get points from that if cautions are better timed.
The Chevy looked good in testing and Larson starts 16th, which helps for place differential. Again, Larson won Sonoma in 2021 and should have won last night's DoorDash 250. Let's roll MORE.
Daniel Suarez MORE Than 34.5 Points
It is nice when the numbers start looking pretty good. Right now, Daniel Suarez is the better Trackhouse Racing driver especially when it comes to Sonoma. After all, he won the race last year. For us, he qualified ninth which allows some possible place differential. The thought process is he has a top-five car again.
Now, the only concern may be the dreaded yellow flags but even then, Suarez just has to inch up a position to pay off here. If he leads any laps, that is a bonus. Take the MORE.
Ryan Blaney MORE Than 46.5 Points
Hey, Ryan Blaney starts all the way back in 31st. This is an awful risk to take but with the bye week nearly upon us, the time may be now. Blaney began 14th last year and ended up sixth. Only a bad break or two kept him out of the top five. If late speed is any indication, the Team Penske Ford could move up a lot over the final half of the race.
Again, the idea is that Blaney benefits from a little late race attrition. If Blaney gets close to the top ten (13th or better), that hits the MORE for us on Sunday afternoon.
Other Recommendations:
- William Byron LESS Than 45.5 Points
- Kyle Busch MORE Than 38.5 Points
- Tyler Reddick LESS Than 54.5 Points
- Kevin Harvick LESS Than 52.5 Points
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