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John Brubaker's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 6/5/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, NRFI, and other various baseball bets.
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! As a washed baseball player myself, it's simply not enough to get my fix in a men's league, so here I am betting on the pros from my couch. I'm stoked to be back to provide some MLB picks again this year. We had a rough regular season in the articles in 2022 but bounced back significantly, going 17-6-4 en route to +6.71 units in the postseason. Let's hope that postseason success rolls into 2023.
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If you're new or just a refresher to those who read my articles last season, I'm John Brubaker. I've been betting on MLB baseball games for five years now, and this is my third MLB season working with the great folks at RotoBaller. I've created my own betting model to help me create and identify value on run lines, totals, and moneylines, among many other things! In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Monday, June 5, 2023. I'm continuously working to improve my models to make them more accurate, and as the season progresses, I'll share the data I have on my personal Twitter @LucidMediaDFS. Feel free to give me a follow if you haven't already, and do not hesitate to ask any questions! My DMs are always open. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games.
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LucidMedia's 2023 MLB Betting Picks
2023 Regular Season: 33-21-2 (+6.84 units)
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Tigers @ Phillies
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PHI -230
DET: Joey Wentz | PHI: Aaron Nola
I'll start things off out in Philly. The Phillies have been very much an "up-and-down" team this season, unable to overcome their slow start, but I'll be backing them in this one today.
The Tigers will send Joey Wentz (1-5, 7.28 ERA) to the mound. Wentz has been very bad this season but does look to be due for some positive regression. With that said, his 5.62 xERA and 4.82 xFIP aren't anything impressive either. He projects to a 4.55 SIERA today against a Phillies lineup that projects to a .316 wOBA and 41.6% hard contact rate against the southpaw.
On the other hand, it'll be Aaron Nola taking the ball for the Phillies. Nola (4-4, 4.70 ERA) has not had the kind of season you want to have in a contract year thus far. However, his projected stats do show signs of positive regression (3.80 xERA, 4.24 xFIP). He does project well today, with a 3.37 projected SIERA and a 25.04% strikeout rate against a Tigers squad that really struggles against right-handed pitching.
The Phillies have been so hot and cold and as a fan, I haven't really been interested in betting on them. I'll do so today, though, grabbing them to win the first five innings (three-way result). We can get that at -160 on FanDuel.
Pick: Phillies F5 -0.5 (-160), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.60 units to win 1 unit.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Brewers @ Reds
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: CIN -110
MIL: Julio Teheran | CIN: Andrew Abbott
We'll wrap things up out in Cincinnati, as the Brewers and Reds wrap up their weekend series tonight.
The Brewers will be sending Julio Teheran (1-0, 0.82 ERA) to the mound. Teheran has been impressive in his first two starts since 2021. However, he's due for some regression (3.41 xERA, 5.38 xFIP). Teheran has been rather mediocre throughout his career, and this will be just his fourth start since the 2020 Covid-shortened season. He projects to a 5,51 SIERA against a Reds lineup that projects to a .320 wOBA.
On the other hand, it'll be Andrew Abbott taking the ball for Cincinnati in his MLB debut. Abbott has been good in AAA this season, pitching to a 3.05 ERA across 38.1 innings. While the Brewers rank in the very poorly in both wOBA and wRC+ against lefties (30th and 29th, respectively), they do project to a .325 wOBA against Abbott here.
While I do have some data backing this play, I'm pulling a little bit of an eye test into this one. I don't think either starter pitches particularly well. With this being the last of a four-game series, I don't expect the bullpens to be into it. Partnering that with a hitter-friendly stadium leads me to grab the over in this one, which we can get at -120 on FanDuel.
Pick: Over 9.5 (-120), FanDuel Sportsbook, 1.2 units to win 1 unit.
Good luck, RotoBallers, and follow my Twitter for more plays!
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