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Breakouts are always a hot topic come fantasy baseball season. Drafting stable players in the earlier rounds while mixing in a few breakouts later is a good recipe for success. But the question is, how do you find these breakouts?
Not everyone is a Yordan Alvarez or Sandy Alcantara, who were already fantasy studs before having monster years in 2022. Some are more like Nathaniel Lowe, who flew under the radar before turning into a four-category contributor last season.
But don't worry if you struggle to find these sneaky breakouts, as I'm going to highlight four infielders who I believe are about to have career years in 2023. Again, like in my outfielders edition, this is about fantasy breakouts. I'm more interested in those who I think will improve their traditional 5x5 stats than those who are going to improve their advanced numbers.
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Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals
ADP: 93
Vinnie Pasquantino is one of the most exciting up-and-coming bats in the league, and after a 72-game rookie season, fantasy managers view him as a seventh-round talent with an ADP of 93. Drafting him that early isn't without reason, as a breakout is coming for the 25-year-old in his sophomore campaign.
In 2022, Pasquantino hit .295 with 10 homers, 25 runs, 26 RBI, and one stolen base, and his plate discipline was fantastic. The 25-year-old struck out just 11.4% of the time last season while walking more than he punched out (11.7% walk rate). Pasquantino's minor league numbers back it up, as he posted a 13.3% strikeout rate and 12.2% walk rate during his career.
His .289 xBA last year was impressive after he produced a 91.2 mph average exit velocity and 29.2% line drive rate. And in 2023, Pasquantino won’t have to deal with the shift, which he faced 93.2% of the time during his rookie season. With his elite contact ability and great batted ball data, a high batting average is almost a guarantee.
Pasquantino's 10 long balls in 72 contests put him on a 22.5 home run pace over a full season. He barreled balls 8.8% of the time, but there’s no question he can bump that up given his 50-raw power grade, per FanGraphs. Pasquantino does play home games at Kauffman Stadium, where he would have matched his season home run total if he played every contest there last season. But the former 11th-rounder smacked 14.8 expected home runs, so with a little more luck, he’ll hit into the distance more often this year.
There are no red flags in Pasquantino’s game. He could handle every pitch and limited balls on the ground (40.7% ground ball rate) in 2022. Further, as a minor leaguer, Pasquantino hit .292 with a .951 OPS over three seasons. He's going to be in the middle of a young and exciting lineup, and with a full campaign coming up, Pasquantino will break out as a top 50 bat in terms of fantasy production.
Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
ADP: 139
After being drafted third overall in the 2019 draft, Andrew Vaughn made it to the majors with 55 minor league games under his belt. His 2021 rookie campaign was underwhelming, as he hit .235 with 15 HRs and a 93 wRC+ across 127 games.
Last year, though, we saw more of the hitter we thought Vaughn was, as he improved his batting average by 36 points (.271) while going yard 17 times and adding 60 runs and 76 RBI over 134 games. But his ceiling is much higher than that, and he'll start reaching it this year.
After posting a 10.9% barrel rate in 2021, it fell to 7.9% last season. Everyone knows Vaughn has tons of power, and chances are he gets that back up again. Also, the 24-year-old's ground ball rate climbed from 43.9% to 48%. His minor league ground ball rates are not concerning, so he should be hitting the ball in the air more in 2023. With improvements in both of these areas, Vaughn can be a 25-30 home run guy, especially while playing at a home run-happy venue.
Maybe the product of the University of California won’t hit .271 again, given his .255 xBA, but he made huge strikeout gains (21.5% strikeout rate in 2021, 17.3% in 2022) stemming from a 21% whiff rate, down from 24.6% his rookie season. Vaughn also owns a career 90.9 mph average exit velocity that should keep him respectable in the average department.
Not to mention, he'll be moving to his natural position of first base with the departure of Jose Abreu after spending most of his first two seasons in the outfield. Vaughn can spend more time concentrating on hitting than stressing about his defense and should mash in the middle of the White Sox lineup.
With a .260 average, 25 home runs, and solid counting stats, Vaughn will break out in his third campaign and outplay his 139 ADP.
Ke’Bryan Hayes, Pittsburgh Pirates
ADP: 171
After a brief 2020 debut where Ke’Bryan Hayes posted a 1.124 OPS in 24 games, many in the fantasy industry were pegging him for a breakout in 2021. Now, heading into 2023, the 26-year-old hasn't provided much value since his rookie season. But this year will be different.
Last season, Hayes slashed .244/.314/.345 with seven home runs, 55 runs, and 41 RBI. The power will probably never come. He has smacked just 18 homers in 256 career games, and his barrel rate is sitting at 4.4% over the last two seasons.
But Hayes does run the bases. He stole 20 bags with 64th-percentile sprint speed in 2022 and has averaged almost 19 steals per 162 games during his career. The bigger bases will only make it easier for Hayes to continue being an aggressive baserunner.
The former first-rounder's .244 average was a bit surprising. Hayes has never produced an average exit velocity below 90.2 mph, including a 91 mark last year. He also made a big stride in his line drives in 2022, with a 27% line drive rate. With a career 21.8% strikeout rate and an 8.2% swinging strike rate, Hayes can easily hit .260 in 2023.
A career-best RBI plus runs is likely on its way, too. He gets on base at a decent clip (.326 career OBP), and with an improved batting average, nothing is stopping him from scoring close to 70 runs. The Pirates made some additions to the lineup and considering his slugging percentage almost has to be better than .345, Hayes will drive in more than the 41 he did last season.
With a career-high batting average and much better counting stats, he'll breakout in terms of fantasy production in 2023. Hayes won't be a star but will provide value in at least three categories, something he has yet to do.
Alec Bohm, Philadelphia Phillies
ADP: 181
Alec Bohm, in real life, isn’t that good of a player. He's poor on defense and owns a career 96 wRC+. But in fantasy, he’s much more valuable. At the age of 26, Bohm is on the verge of a breakout season.
In 2022, the 26-year-old slashed .280/.315/.398 with 13 home runs, 79 runs, 72 RBI, and a pair of stolen bases across 152 games. It was a solid season compared to Bohm's 2021 when he hit just .247 with no power (.342 SLG, seven homers). And he's going to keep getting better.
Bohm made improvements in plate discipline last year, striking out just 17.4% of the time, posting a 21.1% whiff rate, and was more aggressive on the first pitch, with a 39% first-pitch swing percentage. Combined with another exit velocity over 90 mph and a career norm 27.2% line drive rate, that led to a .290 xBA that placed him in the 98th percentile. It's obvious Bohm has the talent to hit for average going forward.
The improvements he is going to make are in the home run department. Bohm hasn’t shown great power at the major league level and posted a 6.8% barrel rate last year. But the former top prospect hit fewer balls on the ground (46.3% ground ball rate) after his first two seasons sat at over 50%. Bohm still plays at Citizens Bank Park, a great place for long balls, and his 14.8 expected home runs were nearly two homers more than his actual total. If he can continue the trend of pulling more fly balls (11.3% in ‘21, 16.9% in ‘22) and get more luck after an 8.8% HR/FB, then he’ll have no trouble reaching the 15 mark.
Stolen bases have never been a part of Bohm's game, even with his average speed. But he'll bat in a solid lineup and reach base enough to contribute 150 RBI plus runs. Bohm hit in the middle of the order on most days in the second half, and although the club added Trea Turner, they’ll also be without Bryce Harper for a good portion of the season.
He won't live up to what people were hyping him up to be as a prospect in the Phillies farm system, but a high batting average with decent power in a good lineup is something every fantasy manager should want at Bohm's ADP of 181.
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