RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions at Kapalua. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello, friends. It is great to be back with you talking golf here at RotoBaller. I appreciate you joining me and I look forward to an exciting year of golf in 2023, starting this week with the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
This will be my fifth year doing Horse For The Course and I'm just as excited to write it as I was the first year! Thanks to all of you that make this article a small part of your weekly PGA DFS research process. For those of you that are joining us for the first time, welcome!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
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2023 Sentry Tournament of Champions
It's exciting to be back, as some of the world's best and most exciting golfers are set to knock the rust off in Kapalua this week for the Sentry Tournament of Champions. The same can be said for PGA DFS grinders, as this will be our first opportunity to make golf lineups in over a month.
Before we hop into the event, I have to note that the "Tournament of Champions" moniker isn't entirely accurate, as this field will not only include all of the previous year's PGA Tour winners, but also all players that qualified for the Tour Championship via the FedEx Cup Playoffs Points list. The Sentry is also a no-cut event, which is something that we always want to take into consideration when crafting PGA DFS lineups.
We'll dive deeper into this field and its course history throughout the article, but I suppose it's worth mentioning who isn't here this week. The current world No. 1 Rory McIlroy will not be in attendance, despite being eligible. It's not a shock, as McIlroy has only teed it up in this event once in his career and will start his calendar year schedule later this month in Dubai. We'll also be without the defending Sentry champion, Cameron Smith, who joined LIV after the conclusion of the FedEx Cup Playoffs. All told, we'll have 39 golfers teeing it up this week with 13 of those players making their first career starts at Kapalua.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: Plantation Course at Kapalua
Par 73 - 7,005 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Bill Coore & Ben Crenshaw
The Plantation Course sits at the foot of the West Maui Mountains and incorporates drastic elevation changes into the layout. We will see some of the longest drives of the season this week, as players will have several downhill tee shots and wide, forgiving fairways that allow them to freely swing away off the tee. Believe it or not, there's a strong correlation between Kapalua and Augusta National, as half of the last 10 winners at the Sentry also happen to be Masters champions!
We are dealing with a rare Par 73 course that features four Par-5s. Weather conditions, specifically the wind, can sometimes be a factor at Kapalua, but the conditions are usually mild to moderate enough to allow for very low scoring, as evidenced by Cameron Smith's record-breaking 34-under par win last year. For an extensive, in-depth look at Kapalua, check out RotoBaller's PGA Course Breakdown, an article by Josh Bennett that uses Google Earth images to dissect every hole of this week's layout.
Check out RotoBaller's PGA Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett for an in-depth breakdown of this week's golf course!
Recent Sentry TOC Winners
- 2022: Cameron Smith (-34)
- 2021: Harris English (-25)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-14)
- 2019: Xander Schauffele (-23)
- 2018: Dustin Johnson (-24)
The Horse
Jon Rahm
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50 (Five career starts)
- Notable Course History: 2nd (2022), T7 ('21), 10th ('20), T8 ('19), 2nd ('18)
- DraftKings Price: $10,000 FanDuel Price: TBD
In what many considered a disappointing year by his lofty standards, Jon Rahm "only" won three times in 2022. One of those was a beatdown of a horrible field at the Mexico Open, while the other two were international victories (Open de Espana & DP World Tour Championship) that came deep into the calendar year.
While the Spaniard has made his feelings about birdie-fest setups well-known in the past, he's actually performed well recently when low scores are needed, as his three 2022 wins required scores of 17, 20, & 25-under-par respectively. That ability to make birdies in bunches has certainly served him well in the Sentry, a tournament where he's historically thrived.
Rahm posted his second career runner-up finish in the Tournament of Champions last year and his herculean 33-under-par effort would have won any other edition of the tournament in history...he just happened to run headfirst into a completely unconscious Cameron Smith, who ultimately clipped him by a shot with a nutso 34-under-par 72-hole total.
Rahm gained 13.9 strokes total at the Plantation Course last year, which was his best-measured SG: Total mark of 2022. He's gained a whopping 39.94 strokes total in the Sentry over the last five years, a tally that's the best in the field across that timeframe.
Players of Rahm's caliber are measured by major championships, so while last year's late victories might not seem like significant wins for a golfer of his stature, I believe they will give him lots of positive momentum heading into 2023 and this week's Sentry.
The Ponies
Justin Thomas
- Event Scoring Average: 68.79 (Seven career starts)
- Notable Course History: T5 ('22), 3rd ('21), Win ('20), 3rd ('19), Win ('17)
- DraftKings Price: $9,900 FanDuel Price: TBD
The 2022 season can be considered a good one for Justin Thomas, as he brought home the second major championship of his career at the PGA. Thomas now has 15 career wins on the PGA Tour, two of which came on the Plantation Course that he's set to play this week.
JT has been a fixture atop Sentry leaderboards, securing three top-five finishes in addition to his two victories across his seven career trips to Kapalua. His ability to go low fits this golf course like a glove. Thomas finished the 2021-22 season at first on the PGA Tour in Actual Scoring Average (68.84) and third in Birdie Average (4.68 per round).
This week's Horse honors felt like a total coin flip between JT and Rahm. I ultimately gave the edge to Rahm due to his late-season wins, while Thomas did next to nothing after winning at Southern Hills in May. That said, I expect JT to come out firing this week and his course history on this layout is truly elite.
Collin Morikawa
- Event Scoring Average: 68.50 (Three career starts)
- Notable Course History: T5 ('22), T7 ('21), T7 ('20)
- DraftKings Price: $9,400 FanDuel Price: TBD
For the first time since turning professional, Collin Morikawa exited a calendar year without a win. While many would consider a pair of top-five major championship finishes a successful season, the two-time major winner frequently voiced his frustration with his 2022 play.
The 25-year-old has a great opportunity to get 2023 off to a bang this week at Kapalua. Morikawa has been tremendous in his three previous trips to the Plantation Course, putting together a 68.50 career scoring average and never finishing worse than tied for seventh in the Sentry.
Morikawa's tremendous production in this event is even more impressive when we consider that he's lost strokes putting in two of his three Sentry starts. He was epically-bad with the flatstick throughout 2022 and grades out 36th in this 39-man field in SG: Putting over the last 50 rounds.
However, Morikawa has proven throughout his career that when he does have an above-average putting week he usually wins. On the eight measured occasions in his career that he's gained more than three strokes putting in a tournament, he has three wins, four runner-ups, and a seventh. Put simply, his ball striking should once again serve him well on this layout...we're just praying for an outlier week with the putter.
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Sungjae Im
- Event Scoring Average: 67.38 (Two career starts)
- Notable Course History: T8 ('22), T5 ('21)
- DraftKings Price: $8,300 FanDuel Price: TBD
We're a long way from the Sentry as I write this, but I'm willing to go out on a limb and say that Sungjae Im will be one of the most popular DFS options on the board for this one.
Im brings an elite combination of course history, short-term form, and a moderate DFS price tag to the table on this slate. The South Korean iron horse of golf used the brief December break to squeeze in his wedding - because nothing stands in the way of the grind - but he was reliably active down the stretch in 2022 and impressively scored three runner-up finishes over his last 10 official starts of the calendar year.
Sungjae will resume the grind at a Plantation Course layout on which he's found a notable level of success in both of his previous appearances. Im has gone T8-T5 in the Sentry over the past two years and has gained a combined 11.13 total strokes in those outings.
Seamus Power
- Event Scoring Average: 68.00 (One career start)
- Notable Course History: T15 ('22)
- DraftKings Price: $7,200 FanDuel Price: TBD
As we work our way down the salary scale, extensive course history becomes tougher to find. After all, it ain't easy getting to Kapalua.
Seamus Power is starting to get the hang of it though, as he's set to make his second consecutive trip to the Sentry. Power acquitted himself well in his tournament debut last year, scoring a T15 on this unique layout that can often be tough on first-timers. He gained strokes in every major statistical category except putting last year and displayed the skill set needed to handle Kapalua.
In addition to the splash of course history, Power closed 2022 on an absolute tear. The Irishman was perhaps the most impressive player on the PGA Tour during the last month of the season, winning in Bermuda and following that victory with consecutive top-five finishes at Mayakoba and the RSM Classic. Power enters the new year as the current FedEx Cup Points leader and is firmly motivated by a potential Ryder Cup bid.
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