RADIO
Week 5 of the NFL season is here. The bye weeks are right around the corner, and the injuries are starting to pile up for some teams. That just makes this week all the more important to win while we can. The NFL season doesn’t last long. We’re nearly a third of the way through the regular season, and these teams are going to be sitting on their couches again before we know it. While they’re here, let’s take advantage of it.
Week 4 gave us our third straight winning week, and it brought us to a 12-8 record overall on the year with a profit of 2.66 units. Our two losses came due to the weather issues in a game between Buffalo and Baltimore while the Eagles and Jaguars dealt with some similar problems. We’re close when we lose, and that’s what I think matters most because it shows that the process is working properly. If we were constantly losing big, we would have some other issues to check in on.
Before we get into this week’s picks, I just had one more piece of information to add for those that may be new here. These picks are not in any sort of order. I try to give you my confidence level in the pick in the analysis, but I also have a belief in every pick I put out that they will hit. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be wasting your time by making the play at all.
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NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 5
O17.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
There has been a common theme for Buffalo Bills running back Devin Singletary through the first four games of the season when it comes to his work in the receiving game. In the two games where the game was close, he crushed this mark. In the two where the Bills ran away with a huge win, he came up short. While they’re matching up with Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett in his first career start, the Bills aren’t guaranteed to run away with this one.
If it weren’t for the scoop and score at the end of their Week 3 loss to the Cleveland Browns, the Steelers would have all of their games decided by five or fewer points, including two games decided by three points. The Steelers keep games close and drag them out, which keeps your starters on the field longer. They rank 12th in receiving yards allowed to running backs as they’re giving up just 39 yards per game to opposing backs. For Buffalo, Singletary is the only running back with more than 40 receiving yards on the season. He can hit this mark in Week 5.
O212.5 Passing Yards
Sportsbook: DraftKings
Odds: -115
This line seems too low even for a team with limited receiving weapons that relies mostly on the running game. Tennessee Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill has hit this mark in two of the team’s first four games. One of the two that he came up short was the team’s massive blowout loss to the Bills where he was pulled before the fourth quarter. A major reason to think Tannehill could be forced to throw more than he was last week is the Washington Commanders' ability to stop the run.
Washington ranks 12th against the run in yards allowed, and they’ve allowed just three touchdowns to running backs this season. Meanwhile, they’ve given up the ninth-most passing yards entering Week 5 while being tied for the league-worst 10 passing touchdowns allowed. They’ve also only registered one interception thus far. They’re getting picked apart through the air, and this number is low enough that Tannehill can get there as long as it doesn’t turn into a boat race with Tennessee out in front.
O61.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -115
As of now, Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson remains the lead running back for the Jags, and he’s in a great spot to have a strong game in Week 5 against the Houston Texans. The Texans rank last in rushing yards allowed this year, and they’re giving up 5.0 yards per carry this year. Running backs have no issue moving the ball on this team, and that becomes especially true when they’re leading in the game.
Robinson had cleared this line in the team’s first three games, and it took the rainy slop fest of a game in Week 4 to derail that streak. Well, this week, the weather shouldn't be nearly as much of an issue, and that should result in them playing with a lead early on in the game. Once that happens, they’ll use a heavy dose of Robinson which should allow him to cruise past this mark.
Tee Higgins
O67.5 Receiving Yards
Sportsbook: Caesars
Odds: -115
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins has quietly been one of the league’s best wide receivers to start this season. Following the concussion that knocked him out in Week 1, he’s proceeded to put up 288 yards in the team’s last three games, including 124 yards in the team’s Week 4 win. Despite ranking second on the team in targets and receptions, he leads the team in yards and is tied for the team lead in touchdowns with two.
In Week 5, they draw the Baltimore Ravens who have been torched all season long. Baltimore ranks last in receiving yards allowed and 31st in receptions allowed to opposing wideouts. Meanwhile, they’re 10th in rushing yards allowed to opposing backs. As of now, the way to move the ball on this team is through the air. Ja’Marr Chase is going to get the headlines, but Higgins is going to see plenty of work as well.
Jamaal Williams
O65.5 Rushing Yards
Sportsbook: BetMGM
Odds: -110
The final prop of the week is one that does give me a bit of pause. The Detroit Lions remain banged up beyond belief at the wide receiver position, and that has led to a ton of work for running back Jamaal Williams. Over the last three games, Williams has totaled 248 yards on 51 carries, which translates to a 4.9 yards per carry over that span. As the full-time starter over the last two weeks, he’s gone for 195 yards on 39 carries. The team is leaning on him to set up the rest of the offense.
The Patriots have been giving up an average of 4.5 yards per carry this season, and they just gave up nearly 200 yards to the Green Bay Packers a week ago. The one reason that I have some pause is the way that New England plays defense. They often make a point to eliminate the one thing that your team does best on offense. Right now, for Detroit, that has been running with Williams. I think they’re going to be able to move the ball well enough in this matchup for Williams to get the job done though. Over 80 yards in each of the last two weeks is enough to give me confidence.
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