RADIO
The UFC is coming off its most chaotic event probably since the first one took place in 1993 when nobody was sure what the hell this thing called The Ultimate Fighting Championship and its boisterous and out-of-a-comic characters were battling each other in Denver, CO. There might have not been title fights in last weekend's numbered (UFC 279) event, but there was more drama than one could have ever imagined.
Now, here we are before entering another break in the last months of the year. Whatever happens next Saturday, though, and judging by the fresh developments and handling of the schedule by Dana White, I cannot really tell you about it. I can only stick to the list of booked fights, go one by one, give my two cents about who's the better fantasy bet, and go from there. Whatever comes next, just enjoy it before it's too late.
In this article, I will be providing you with my fantasy MMA lineup picks for UFC Vegas 60: Sandhagen vs. Yadong on 09/17/22. Give me a follow on Twitter @chapulana. Good luck!
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DraftKings MMA Bantamweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Song Yadong, $7000 - vs. Cory Sandhagen
Quite a contrasting couple of trends, those of these two fighters when it comes to their most recent results inside the UFC Octagon. While Cory is trying to bounce back from a couple of consecutive defeats--including losing a title fight to Petr Yan in his latest outing--his opponent Song will be trying to win his fourth bout in a row this weekend.
Sandhagen's record from 2020 on looks bad at 1-3, yes, but looking at his actual rivals things are much easier to understand. He's fought Yan, Dillashaw, and Sterling in the past two years, and all of those three rank inside the 90th percentile in DKFP per fight. His lone victory, though, was also an easy one against 59th-percentile Marlon Moraes, finishing him with a KO in the second round.
Yadong has done pretty much the opposite: he has a 4-1 record in that same span but he's defeated three sub-90th-percentile fighters and only one above that mark (91st-percentile Marlon Vera) while losing his lone fight against a top-notch opponent (96th-percentile Kyler Phillips in Mar. 2021).
None of these two is going to rely heavily on the ground/grappling game, with Sandhagen going for six takedowns in his latest fight landing just one of them and Yadong only attempting three in his last four bouts with no success at all. Both fighters have huge striking numbers in terms of the volume they launch strikes at, although the landing rates are often on the 40% whereabouts for the two of them, something not quite optimal.
With Yadong having two KO victories in a row and looking as the freshest up-and-coming threat in the Bantam division and Sandhagen off a title-fight loss to Yan, I have to bet on a reversal of roles here and side Song Yadong overtaking Sandhagen and getting closer to his first fight for the belt.
DraftKings MMA Middleweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Gregory Rodrigues, $8200 - vs. Chidi Njokuani
It feels like Anthony walked so Chidi could run. That's Anthony, Chidi Njokuani's brother and former UFC (now entirely retired from MMA) fighter, who posted a 3-5 record over a three-and-a-half-years span in the promo between 2011 and 2014. Chidi, by the look of it, is determined to make his brother's tenure look bad as hell judging by his still-short but extraordinary run to date: two fights, two first-round KOs, just 5:02 minutes of total fighting time, and one victory in 16 (!!!) seconds.
Rodrigues, mind you, is definitely not much lower down the pecking order of newcomers showing some very serious flashes of greatness. While Gregory has only fought four times in the UFC himself, he's a threatening 3-1 fighter with his debut taking place slightly over a year ago. He fought for the last time last June and all he needed was 3:18 minutes to finish Julian Marquez--his best opponent to this day--then and there with a KO.
Chidi has never even bothered about going for a takedown while Rodrigues is a phenomenal grappler having a 7-of-12 takedown record in his four fights in the UFC. Whenever he wants to bring a foe down he seemingly just goes for it and achieves it. That's something Chidi should be taking care of if he wants to have a chance at another W unless he can drop Rodrigues cold early as he's done in his two other fights to his two lone rivals in the UFC in the past seven months.
Rodrigues has shown enough to make us believe he can both knockout and submit fools, as much as he can go the distance putting up reasonably high numbers (he got to 80.5 DKFP in his lone decision W and earned 40.5 in defeat) while Chidi has been a KO-or-nothing proposition. That latter thing can happen once more, of course, but Rodrigues sounds like the better (and safer, not going to lie) option.
DraftKings MMA Featherweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Bill Algeo, $7900 - vs. Andre Fili
It's been more than two years since Fili lastly got his fist raised by a UFC referee. It happened when he defeated Charles Jourdain in June of 2020 as Fili's then proceeded to earn a 0-2-1 record with an NC to go along with a KO and a decision defeat. Algeo, on the other hand, will enter the Octagon boasting a two-fight winning streak with both of those victories taking place this calendar year (in January and July).
Of course, Fili is a grizzled veteran of the promotion with his debut happening almost nine years ago. He never fought for the title, though, with his results never amounting to more than two consecutive victories in a row over what is now an 18-fight career. In fact, every time he won a fight he did against subpar opponents only to get booked against better rivals next with those outcomes always being the same: a flop.
Algeo is an overall 3-2 UFC fighter, although he's already older than Fili. He knows he has limited chances at lifting the FW belt so he must maximize them racking up Ws on top of each other as quickly as he can. His KO against Herbert Burns in July marked the first time he won with an early finish, having gone to a decision (2-2) on all of his prior fights.
Fili is one of the wildest men out there in terms of volume striking as he barely ever lands more than 40% of the SS he launches toward his opponents. Sadly, volume is not one thing that works in Fili's favor even in the fantasy realm as he just whiffs too much for my liking.
Algeo's volume is good enough and he sits at the opposite end of the spectrum landing at least 50% of his total SSA in four of his fight UFC fights (the only one had him landing 45% of his 170 SSA). He has also gone 5-of-8 in takedowns so far and 3-for-3 in his two most recent fights. Clear pick here with Algeo leading the way easily.
DraftKings MMA Heavyweight - UFC DFS Lineup Picks
Tanner Boser, $8800 - vs. Rodrigo Nascimento
Not too bad of a decision to open the main card of the evening with a heavyweight bout after last weekend's fracas, I guess... The names are not the flashiest of them, but when you put to packed bodies in front of each other they always bring the fireworks to the table so that makes up for that little issue about the reputation.
Boser and Nascimento have fought a combined 10 times inside UFC Octagons. Put their records together and you get a near-even 6-4 outcome, although the truth is that Nascimento is 2-1 to Boser's 4-3. You be the judge on what's better. What you don't have to be the judge on, though, is these two's approach to this thing called MMA: maul the opponent, earn the victory.
While Nascimento went 2-for-2 on takedowns in his debut and actually won via submission inside the first two rounds, the truth is that these two are going to bank on strikes more than grappling and takedowns. Boser, in fact, has never gone for one. Nascimento lands about 60% of the strikes he launches to Boser's 55% landing rate. That's close enough, and the volume is not very separated with the former launching 8.5 SSA per minute and the latter 8.2.
Nascimento has only either won or lost via early finish, never going the full distance. Boser has gone home early three times (all of them KO victories) while finishing 1-3 in decision fights. All things considered, Boser looks like the more threatening KO'er of these two and has proved capable of at least enduring 15 minutes of fighting time--no matter the fantasy outcome. I'd bet on Boser either rocking early or outperforming Nascimento on the long distance this weekend, although it's clearly not a given.
