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After a few days off, I am back and ready for more MLB betting action! We have a full slate of games today on which to wager! Whether you like game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you and try to cover a little bit of everything!
Last month, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks and data with you here in this space! You can access the free substack here and sign up for daily emails in addition to viewing the picks daily here on the RotoBaller website.
In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Tuesday, August 9th, 2022. The odds on these bets vary from book to book and are constantly changing. I primarily use FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks, but I would strongly encourage you to shop for the best odds at whatever books you use daily. I would also advise checking back later in the day as I may add bets depending on odds changing or specific props becoming available after I first post.
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MLB Betting Picks: Strikeout Projections
I do my own strikeout projections for just about every pitcher, every day. I use both season-long data and the most recent 14-day rolling samples from pitchers and opposing hitters when calculating these projections and I also include some other helpful stats here that I look at while making my picks, including pitchers' SwStr%, BB%, etc... These are median projections that are based on the average length of start for each pitcher, so if you think a pitcher is going to pitch deeper or less deep than usual, adjust accordingly.
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MLB Betting Picks: Pitcher Prop Bets
Charlie Morton o5.5K vs. BOS (-165 DK)
Boston has been a bit of a mess in the second half, and a team that we can attack for strikeouts. Charlie has seen his Ks tick back up over the last month and has 6+ in five of his last six starts. I’ll pay the juice here and will definitely be parlaying him with Bieber to get better odds on both.
Shane Bieber o6.5K vs. DET (-165 DK)
Shane will see the Tigers for the fourth time today, having struck out 5, 6, and 10 of them in those three previous starts. The Detroit offense has been bad lately, and their K rate is trending in the wrong direction, while Bieber is coming off two straight 8-strikeout outings. I think he gets his 7+ today.
Carlos Carrasco o5.5K vs. CIN (-130 DK)
Bassitt started slow last night but ended up whiffing 8 Reds over 8 innings. Cincy’s lineup is pretty ugly-looking these days. Cookie has been in good form, with 6+ in three of his last four. I think these odds continue to move, too, and he probably ends up at -150 or worse later today.
Braxton Garrett o5.5 vs. PHI (+105 DK)
I really debated Garrett here only because I don’t want to go back to the well one too many times and Philly’s offense has been scorching (Washington pitching can do that for you, though). We find out just how for real Garrett is tonight, or if he was just exploiting match-ups with PIT and CIN the last month. At plus odds, I am in again for six strikeouts, his stuff and command are that good.
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MLB Betting Picks: Hitter Prop Bets
Austin Riley o1.5 (-125 DK)
We are rolling with some bonafide lefty-mashers today in great spots. Eerily similar spots, really, as both are facing aging lefties who simply haven’t been very good this year.
I’m talking about Rich Hill here, who gets the start for Boston. We know he throws his curveball more than any other pitch at this point in his career, and the bad news for him is that Riley has been one of the best curveball hitters in baseball this season with a +12 Statcast run value, .532 xSLG, and 63% hard-hit rate.
His splits against LHP are also silly as he’s hitting .362 with an OPS of 1.190, collecting 9 HR, 12 doubles, and a triple this season.
Pete Alonso o1.5 (-110 DK)
Alonso has been darn good against lefties, too, and gets an even worse pitcher in Mike Minor (at least statistically speaking). Minor is allowing 12% barrels and pretty much all of his pitches (fastball, slider, and changeup) are getting hit hard this season.
Alonso can crush all three of those offerings and his .266 ISO and .395 wOBA against lefties this year puts him near the top of my hitter rankings.
MLB Betting Picks: Sides and Totals
BAL/TOR OVER 8.5 runs (-115 DK)
Manoah is a stud, but Baltimore has seen him several times by this time of year and they greeted Kikuchi rather rudely last night. I’ve learned to never count out the Orioles, they are about as pesky as they come. The Blue Jays get Kyle Bradish on the mound and should be able to do work against him. He gave up five runs against them in 4+ innings in his only other start vs. Toronto earlier in June.
MIN/LAD OVER 8.5 runs (-115)
I like Joe Ryan plenty, but he’s been feasting on weak match-ups this season and he’s been knocked around by some good teams. I also think this is a tough match-up for Julio Urias on the other side, as Minnesota has a bunch of good RHH they can throw at him. I give the offenses the advantage here.
PHI/MIA under 7.5 runs (-110 DK)
Zack Wheeler is awesome, we know that - and Miami’s offense has almost completely evaporated. However, this is all about Braxton Garrett, too, as I think he can hold the Philly bats in check as well. I think the Phillies win this one, but I am not confident enough in them covering the run line. I think we end up with something like a 3-2 game with both starters pitching well.
MLB Betting Picks: Betting Trends
I usually include this chart at least once a week in my newsletter, so that readers can see how every team has fared in specific situations this year. I like looking at trends, but I use them to support my data-driven picks, I don't rely on them by themselves.
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I hope you find my data and picks helpful and profitable! Thanks for checking out my picks and content here at RotoBaller!
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