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After every NFL season, NFL teams take the time to evaluate not only the players but also the coaching staff and front office as well. While many teams choose to retain the same head coach, offensive coordinator, and defensive coordinator, a few other teams opt to go in a new direction with their coaching staff.
One team that shook up its coaching staff this offseason was the Denver Broncos. Vic Fangio (2021 head coach), Pat Shurmur (2021 offensive coordinator), and Ed Donatell (2021 defensive coordinator) are all gone, being replaced by head coach Nathaniel Hackett, offensive coordinator Justin Outten, and defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero for the 2022-23 season.
This article will look at the potential impact this coaching staff will have on the players and try to pinpoint the Broncos players' fantasy values in it.
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The Baseline
To get a better understanding of the value the Broncos coaches bring to this team, we can look at the NFL league averages in each of the past two years in a variety of statistical categories and then compare them to the averages achieved by the Broncos' coaches. Here are 'The Baseline' NFL league averages over the past couple of years:
QB Impact
| Year | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
35.19 | 254.88 | 1.70 | 4.19 | 18.43 | 0.25 |
| 2021 League Average | 34.40 | 244.13 | 1.54 | 3.99 | 17.36 | 0.18 |
RB Impact
| Year | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. | RB Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
21.68 | 95.13 | 0.75 | 4.71 | 6.14 | 34.94 | 0.18 |
|
2021 League Average
|
21.66 | 92.20 | 0.69 | 4.82 | 6.22 | 36.36 | 0.19 |
WR Impact
| Year | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
13.24 | 20.21 | 166.67 | 1.04 |
|
2021 League Average
|
12.45 | 19.75 | 155.55 | 0.96 |
TE Impact
| Year | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
|
2020 League Average
|
4.76 | 7.03 | 51.29 | 0.45 |
|
2021 League Average
|
4.77 | 6.93 | 50.44 | 0.37 |
Defense Impact
| Year | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play |
Turnovers Forced
|
| 2020 League Average | 24.8 | 240.2 | 118.9 | 64.3 | 5.6 | 1.3 |
| 2021 League Average | 23.0 | 228.3 | 115.2 | 63.3 | 5.4 | 1.3 |
Previous Coaching Staff
In order to get an understanding of how the Broncos' fantasy players may be impacted this year, we also need to look at some of the key members of the Denver Broncos' previous coaching staff: former head coach Vic Fangio, former offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur, and former defensive coordinator Ed Donatell. By doing this, we will have a better understanding of where the new regime is starting from and where the primary changes will occur.
Former Head Coach: Vic Fangio
Vic Fangio was a defensive coordinator in the NFL for the Carolina Panthers (1995-1998), Indianapolis Colts (1999-2001), Houston Texans (2002-2005), San Francisco 49ers (2011-2014), and Chicago Bears (2015-2018) prior to serving as the Denver Broncos head coach (2019-2021).
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Broncos | 16 | 27.88 | 237.94 | 130 | 65.19 | 5.64 | 1 |
| 2021 Broncos | 17 | 18.94 | 214.82 | 111.29 | 61.12 | 5.34 | 1.12 |
| Fangio's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 353 | 21.30 | 218.17 | 113.75 | 63.22 | 5.25 | 1.56 |
Former Defensive Coordinator: Ed Donatell
Ed Donatell served as a defensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers (2000-2003) and Atlanta Falcons (2004-2006) and also worked in the secondary with the Denver Broncos (2009-2010), San Francisco 49ers (2011-2014), Chicago Bears (2015-2018), and Denver Broncos (2019-2021) prior to the 2022 season.
| Year | Games | Points Allowed | Pass Yds Given Up | Run Yds Given Up | Plays Against | Yds/Play | Turnovers Forced |
| 2020 Broncos | 16 | 27.88 | 237.94 | 130 | 65.19 | 5.64 | 1 |
| 2021 Broncos | 17 | 18.94 | 214.82 | 111.29 | 61.12 | 5.34 | 1.12 |
| Donatell's Career Averages (DC/HC) | 161 | 20.58 | 213.70 | 113.30 | 63.07 | 5.18 | 1.76 |
Former Offensive Coordinator: Pat Shurmur
Pat Shurmur was an offensive coordinator for St. Louis Rams (2009-2010), Philadelphia Eagles (2013-2015), and Minnesota Vikings (2016-2017), and also a head coach for the Cleveland Browns (2011-2012) and New York Giants (2018-2019) prior to serving as the Denver Broncos offensive coordinator from 2020 to 2021.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Broncos | 16 | 34.75 | 229.56 | 1.31 | 3.56 | 11.88 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Broncos* | 16 | 31.56 | 226.88 | 1.25 | 2.5 | 9.94 | 0.25 |
| Shurmur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 201 | 35.58 | 243.41 | 1.37 | 2.76 | 10.85 | 0.09 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Broncos | 16 | 23.25 | 104.31 | 0.63 | 3.25 | 4.5 | 17 | 0.06 |
| 2021 Broncos* | 16 | 24.75 | 110.63 | 0.69 | 4.38 | 5.38 | 34.5 | 0.31 |
| Shurmur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 201 | 23.24 | 98.09 | 0.66 | 4.84 | 6.55 | 36.52 | 0.12 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Broncos | 16 | 10.5 | 19.56 | 151.69 | 0.88 |
| 2021 Broncos* | 16 | 10 | 16.44 | 135.38 | 0.5 |
| Shurmur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 201 | 11.75 | 19.99 | 149.37 | 0.85 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Broncos | 16 | 6.06 | 9.25 | 60.88 | 0.38 |
| 2021 Broncos* | 16 | 6.31 | 8.31 | 56.94 | 0.44 |
| Shurmur's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 201 | 5.36 | 8.19 | 56.80 | 0.40 |
*Pat Shurmur missed the game against the Philadelphia Eagles in 2021, Mike Shula called the plays that game*
2022 Offense
2022 Head Coach: Nathaniel Hackett
Nathaniel Hackett will be the Denver Broncos' newest head coach in 2022. Prior to joining the Broncos, he had previously spent two seasons as the Buffalo Bills offensive coordinator (2013-2014), 36 games as the Jacksonville Jaguars offensive coordinator (2016-2018), and three seasons as the Green Bay Packers offensive coordinator (2019-2021). Let's take a look at the performance of some of Hackett's offenses over the course of his career as an offensive play-caller to see if we can get some insight into what impact he may have on the Broncos' offense in 2022.
QB Impact
| Year | Games | Team Pass Att. | Team Pass Yds. | Team Pass TDs | QB Carries | QB Rush Yds. | QB Rush TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 32.88 | 268.69 | 3 | 3.19 | 8.75 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 34.88 | 266.24 | 2.29 | 2.76 | 7.47 | 0.18 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 34.67 | 243.93 | 1.70 | 3.47 | 13.90 | 0.15 |
RB Impact
| Year | Games | RB Carries | RB Rush Yds. | RB Rush TDs | RB Rec. | RB Targets | RB Rec. Yds. |
RB Rec. TDs
|
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 23.81 | 120.38 | 0.81 | 5.69 | 7.19 | 43.5 | 0.19 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 23 | 100.88 | 0.59 | 5.24 | 6.24 | 41.88 | 0.47 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 24.44 | 104.83 | 0.68 | 5.86 | 7.73 | 46.41 | 0.26 |
WR Impact
| Year | Games | WR Rec. | WR Targets | WR Rec. Yds. | WR Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 12.69 | 18.13 | 172.75 | 1.81 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 14.12 | 21.41 | 181.53 | 1.59 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 11.74 | 19.89 | 153.67 | 1.06 |
TE Impact
| Year | Games | TE Rec. | TE Targets | TE Rec. Yds. | TE Rec. TDs |
| 2020 Packers | 16 | 4.81 | 5.94 | 52.81 | 1 |
| 2021 Packers | 17 | 4.24 | 5.82 | 43.06 | 0.24 |
| Hackett's Career Averages (OC/HC) | 117 | 4 | 5.85 | 42.28 | 0.36 |
2022 Offensive Coordinator: Justin Outten
The 2022 season will be the first time that Justin Outten has been an offensive coordinator at the college or NFL levels. Because of this, we don't have much data on the new Denver Broncos offensive coordinator, but at the very least, we'll include all of his previous coaching stops below.
| Justin Outten's Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2007 | Syracuse | Grad. Ast. |
| 2008 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2009 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2010 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2011 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2012 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2013 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2014 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2015 | Westfield HS |
Ast. HC/OC/OL Coach
|
| 2016 | Atlanta Falcons | Coaching Intern |
| 2017 | Atlanta Falcons | Off. Ast. |
| 2018 | Atlanta Falcons | Off. Ast. |
| 2019 | Green Bay Packers | TE Coach |
| 2020 | Green Bay Packers | TE Coach |
| 2021 | Green Bay Packers | TE Coach |
Nathaniel Hackett and Justin Outten's Takeaways & Expectations
Justin Outten has never been an offensive coordinator or head coach prior to the 2022 season, so this section will primarily talk about head coach Nathaniel Hackett's previous coaching tendencies.
Over the course of Nathaniel Hackett's 117-game career in an offensive coordinator or head coaching role, his team's offenses have averaged 34.67 passing attempts per game - which is around the league average. In addition, Hackett's quarterbacks have averaged just 3.47 carries per game over the course of his career - which is a little below the league averages we've seen the last couple of years.
Russell Wilson will be one of the more mobile starting quarterbacks that Hackett has worked with over the course of his career, so there's a solid chance that we see more quarterback rushing attempts than usual from Hackett's offense. Overall, Nathaniel Hackett's offense seems to give a fairly average workload to his quarterbacks. Because of this, Russell Wilson probably doesn't have the number one overall fantasy quarterback upside in this offense, but he should be a QB1 for the 2022 season nonetheless.
But what about the skill positions - running back, wide receiver, and tight end? How is Hackett's offense likely to impact those positions?
Starting with the running back position, Nathaniel Hackett has traditionally been great in providing the position work. Hackett's running backs have averaged 24.44 carries, 104.83 rushing yards, and 0.68 rushing touchdowns per game over the course of his 117-game career as an offensive coordinator.
This usage and efficiency on the ground are pretty encouraging to see if you are planning on rostering Javonte Williams or Melvin Gordon III this season, with the career carries and rushing yards marks above the league averages we've seen the last few years. Clearly, the Broncos running back room as a whole will get a good amount of work on the ground, but for fantasy purposes, we also need to consider how much of the work Hackett is likely to give one tailback versus multiple backs.
If you are planning on taking Javonte Williams early in your fantasy league, the graph above might be a little scary to look at because Nathaniel Hackett has generally preferred to take the running back by committee approach on the ground over a bell cow one. Having said this, this isn't necessarily a death sentence on Williams's fantasy value - Hackett's offense has still produced top-tier fantasy running backs in the past with guys like Leonard Fournette (RB8 in 2017 for 0.5 PPR formats) and Aaron Jones (RB2 in 2019, RB5 in 2020, and RB12 overall in 2021 for 0.5 PPR formats).
Finally, Hackett gives his running backs an above-average amount of work in the passing game with his tailbacks catching 5.86 passes on 7.73 targets for 46.41 receiving yards and 0.26 receiving touchdowns per game in his offense.
All of these numbers are above the league averages the last few years and show that it's a good idea to roster the Broncos' primary pass-catching back in your fantasy league(s). While Hackett doesn't have the perfect coaching profile for fantasy running backs due to his committee preference, he does have a pretty strong one. Javonte Williams will have top-five fantasy running back upside in Hackett's offense, but it's probably safer to value him as a low-end RB1/high-end RB2 going into the 2022 fantasy drafts on the off-chance that Melvin Gordon sees a larger workload than we'd like to see.
Jumping to the wide receiver position, over the course of his career as an offensive coordinator, Hackett has provided his wide receiver room with 19.89 targets per game.
Hackett's wide receiver room has consistently hovered closely to that average in every season he's been an offensive coordinator (with the exception of 2016). Overall, there should be room for two of the team's wide receivers to put up decent fantasy numbers, but it doesn't appear likely that this is a team that can produce three fantasy-relevant wide receivers - even with Russell Wilson throwing the ball. Keep this in mind when trying to decide where to draft Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, or K.J. Hamler in your fantasy leagues.
Lastly, looking at the tight end position, Hackett's offense hasn't utilized them a ton, with the group averaging 5.85 targets per game.
Looking at the year-by-year data, it's clear that the Broncos' tight end room will likely hover around six tight end targets per game this year barring a drastic change in Nathaniel Hackett's offensive philosophy. While Albert Okwuegbunam has gotten some hype this offseason as a potential breakout candidate, it's much more likely that he ends up as a TE2/streamer for the 2022 season.
Fantasy Relevant Players: Russell Wilson, Brett Rypien, Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon III, Mike Boone, Damarea Crockett, Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, K.J. Hamler, Kendall Hinton, Montrell Washington, Albert Okwuegbunam, and Greg Dulcich
2022 Defense
2022 Defensive Coordinator: Ejiro Evero
| Ejiro Evero's Coaching Career | ||
| Year | Team | Role |
| 2005-2006 | UC Davis | Ast. Coach |
| 2007-2009 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
Def. Qual. Control Coach
|
| 2010 | University of Redlands |
Special Teams Coordinator & Safeties Coach
|
| 2011 | San Francisco 49ers |
Qual. Control Coach
|
| 2012-2013 | San Francisco 49ers | Off. Ast. |
| 2014-2015 | San Francisco 49ers | Def. Ast. |
| 2016 | Green Bay Packers |
Def. Qual. Control Coach
|
| 2017-2020 | Los Angeles Rams | Safeties Coach |
| 2021 | Los Angeles Rams |
Secondary Coach & Pass Game Coordinator
|
The Denver Broncos hired a new defensive coordinator this offseason - Ejiro Evero. This will be Evero's first time as a defensive coordinator at any level so we don't have any statistics from defenses that he's been in charge of, but we will include all of his previous roles below to at the very least help understand the background he comes from.
Other Notable Assistants
Special Teams Coordinator: Dwayne Stukes - The Denver Broncos will have a new special teams coordinator in 2022, going from Tom McMahon to Dwayne Stukes. Stukes has been coaching football at the NFL level since 2006, primarily working with special teams. His most recent position was with the Los Angeles Rams as an assistant special teams coach (2021), and he's worked as a special teams coordinator once before with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2011).
QB Coach: Klint Kubiak - The Denver Broncos will also have a new quarterbacks coach in 2022, going from Mike Shula to Klint Kubiak. Kubiak has been coaching football since 2010 and has two years of experience working as a quarterbacks coach for the Minnesota Vikings (2019-2020). Kubiak also served as the Minnesota Vikings' offensive coordinator in 2021.
RB Coach: Tyrone Wheatley - In the complete overhaul of the Denver Broncos coaching staff, the team will be making the change from Curtis Modkins to Tyrone Wheatley as running backs coach. Wheatley has been coaching football since 2007, working exclusively as a running backs coach or a head coach. At the NFL level, he's worked as a running backs coach for the Buffalo Bills (2013-2014) and the Jacksonville Jaguars (2017-2018). He also played running back in the NFL for the New York Giants (1995-1998) and the Oakland Raiders (1999-2004).
WR Coach: Zach Azzanni - Zach Azzanni is one of the few carryovers from the previous coaching staff and has been the Denver Broncos wide receivers coach since 2018. He's been coaching since 1999 and at the NFL level, he has also been a wide receivers coach for the Chicago Bears (2017).
TE Coach: Jake Moreland - The Broncos will have a new tight ends coach (Jake Moreland) in 2022 after they made the decision to move on from Wade Harman. Jake Moreland, the new tight ends coach, has been coaching primarily at the college level in a variety of positions since 2003. His role as the assistant offensive line coach with the New York Jets last year (2021) was the first time that Moreland had coached at the NFL level. Moreland also played in the NFL for the New York Jets (2000) and the Cleveland Browns (2001).
OL Coach: Butch Barry - In a bit of a surprising move, Nathaniel Hackett decided not to retain legendary offensive line coach Mike Munchak and instead bring in his own guy, Butch Barry. This will be Barry's first time as the head offensive line coach, but he's previously worked as an assistant offensive line coach at the NFL level for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2015-2018) and the San Francisco 49ers (2021).
DL Coach: Marcus Dixon - The Denver Broncos will also have a new defensive line coach in 2022 as they transition from Bill Kollar to Marcus Dixon. Dixon was the assistant defensive line coach on the Los Angeles Rams in 2021 and played defensive end at the NFL level for the Dallas Cowboys (2008-2009) and the New York Jets (2010-2012).
LB Coach: Peter Hansen - The Broncos will have a new linebackers coach in 2022, going from Reggie Herring to Peter Hansen. Hansen has been coaching football at the college and NFL levels since 2008, with his most recent role as UNLV's defensive coordinator and inside linebackers coach.
OLB Coach: Bert Watts - John Pagano is gone and Bert Watts will be the Broncos' new outside linebackers coach. Watts has 17 years of coaching experience, and most recently was the outside linebackers & special teams coordinator for Auburn University (2021).
DB Coach: Christian Parker - Christian Parker joined the Denver Broncos coaching staff in 2021 and is one of the only coaches to remain from the previous coaching staff. He's been involved in coaching since 2013 and previously was the defensive quality control coach for the Green Bay Packers (2019-2020).
Enjoy this series? Be sure to check out all of the other 'Coaching Matters' team previews!
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens, Cincinnati Bengals
AFC South: Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, Indianapolis Colts
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
Follow Eli Grabanski on Twitter: @3li_handles
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