5 Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers - Avoid These ADPs in Drafts

March 14, 2025

Frank identifies five potential SP fantasy baseball busts based on ADPs - expensive starting pitchers to avoid in 2025 drafts. These pitchers may disappoint.

The most exciting part about fantasy baseball is watching your starting pitcher mow down opposing hitters. With that said, we all know that pitchers are the most volatile players with a lot of injury risk. Steering clear of potential landmines is essential to building a strong fantasy rotation.

On this page, we'll dive into five pitchers to avoid in 2025 fantasy baseball drafts. The key here is to let them fall past ADP -- if they're still on the board later in the draft, you can take them -- it's all about cost. The focus will be on pitchers with top-160 ADP in NFBC leagues since March 1.

The reasons to avoid these pitchers can vary from team context, injury risk, and potential regression. It could also just relate to their current ADP, which may be a bit too expensive. So, without further ado, let's take a closer look at five pitchers to avoid this season.

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Chris Sale, SP, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 40.30

Chris Sale, Nasty 78mph Slider. 😨 pic.twitter.com/qKkGwpDyyU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 4, 2025

Chris Sale was fantastic last season, posting a 2.38 ERA and 1.01 WHIP with 39 walks and 225 strikeouts in 177 2/3 innings. The peripheral numbers were phenomenal as well, including a 2.80 SIERA and 26.5 percent K-BB%.

With a terrific team context in playing for the World Series-contending Braves, there's a lot to like with Sale on the surface level. The concern here is that you're paying a premium for an injury-prone pitcher.

Before the 2024 season, Sale had combined for only 151 innings since 2019. We also saw the former Red Sox ace miss some time at the end of the year with a back injury.

While he's healthy right now, I just can't get behind the peak price on a player who has missed so much time throughout his career. You have to invest a third-round pick on Sale this time around, so the opportunity cost is much higher.

If you look at the draft board, you see that there are other pitchers who you can target 10+ picks later and get similar upside, such as Blake Snell (51.21 ADP), Jacob deGrom (55.10 ADP), and Michael King (65.67 ADP). It feels like a safer play to target a hitter such as Wyatt Langford (39.98 ADP) or Pete Alonso (40.38 ADP) at Sale's current cost while waiting a round or two for a pitcher.

Framber Valdez, SP, Houston Astros

NFBC ADP: 68.67

Framber Valdez has established himself as one of the safest pitchers in the draft. Fresh off a season with a 2.91 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 176 1/3 innings, the Astros lefty is a dependable anchor for your staff.

The issue here is that the strikeout rate remains low for a top-75 pitcher (24.0 percent K%). Valdez needs to maintain a heavy volume to provide enough value at his current cost. Last season was his lowest IP total since 2021.

When you invest a premium pick into a starting pitcher, ideally you want some more strikeout upside. There's less margin for error here if the pitcher is volume-dependent to get the punchouts that you need.

If you took a risk on an earlier pitcher like deGrom or Snell, then Valdez makes some sense as a safer pairing. Otherwise, the prudent move feels like waiting until later to bet on this type of profile.

You can find similar volume arms with strong ratios later in the draft, such as Bryce Miller (85.95 ADP), Aaron Nola (96.08 ADP), Logan Webb (106.54 ADP), and Luis Castillo (110.89 ADP).

The question becomes, is there that much of a difference between Valdez and these arms to warrant such a gap in ADP? My answer is no, which is why it feels more comfortable to target a hitter at this price -- perhaps Ozzie Albies (59.84 ADP) or Lawrence Butler (59.29 ADP).

Max Fried, SP, New York Yankees

NFBC ADP: 97.98

Max Fried is another volume arm who can provide elite ratios but leaves you wanting more when it comes to strikeouts. The former Brave put up a 3.25 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 174 1/3 innings last season.

The peripherals were impressive, including a 3.61 SIERA. However, it's never wise to bet on a pitcher in the first year of a lucrative deal -- Fried just signed an eight-year, $218 million contract with the Yankees in free agency.

After an entire career in the National League, Fried will now have to adjust to the American League East, which is loaded with imposing lineups like the Orioles, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.

There's also the added pressure of playing in the toughest market in baseball, especially with Gerrit Cole sidelined. Fried will be depended on as the Yankees ace. We saw how long it took Carlos Rodon to adjust to the spotlight in New York City.

We should also note that Fried has had injury issues in recent years. This is a pitcher who had forearm issues in both the 2024 and 2023 seasons. This looming risk of injury casts some doubt on an arm whose best trait is high floor due to heavy volume and strong ratios. Similar to Valdez in Houston, it feels safer to wait a round and take someone like Webb or Castillo.

Jack Flaherty, Detroit Tigers

NFBC ADP: 146.22

Stats off Jack Flaherty’s knuckle curve in 2024

560 pitches
.164 BA
.219 SLG
.173 wOBA
1 HR
44 Whiff%

An electric weapon that I hope he uses even more this season.#RepDetroit | #Tigers
pic.twitter.com/7lJwdWBIr5

— DataBase Hit (@DatabaseHit) February 18, 2025

Jack Flaherty turned back the clock in 2024, putting up an impressive 3.10 SIERA and 24.0 K-BB% in 162 innings. The former Cardinal's previous two seasons were highlighted by injuries and underwhelming performance (4.50+ SIERA in each of those years). Like Sale in Atlanta, it feels risky to pay a peak price on a pitcher who has struggled with injuries throughout his career.

Despite such a strong season, Flaherty didn't have much of a market in free agency, settling for a two-year deal worth $35 million that includes a player option for 2026. This is a telltale sign that teams were unwilling to give him a long-term deal, perhaps worried about his durability.

The contract has the look of a player betting on himself in a familiar landing spot -- Flaherty bounced back with the Tigers last season -- before testing free agency once again the next year.

The worry with Flaherty is the decreased velocity that we saw at the end of last year. This resulted in postseason struggles, where Flaherty posted a 7.36 ERA and a 15.3 percent K% in 22 innings for the Dodgers.

There's a good chance that he was gassed by the end of the year, as it ended up being a 44-inning jump from the previous season. Instead of taking on this injury risk at this cost, go with someone like Robbie Ray (160.86 ADP) later in the draft.

Kodai Senga, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 159.35

Two more strikeouts for Kodai Senga against some of the Mets' minor leaguers! pic.twitter.com/zgyfx89LHw

— SNY Mets (@SNY_Mets) March 9, 2025

Kodai Senga was limited to only 5 1/3 innings last season due to shoulder and calf injuries. While the strikeout upside is tantalizing (29.1 percent K% in 2023), there's too much injury risk to ignore here.

Let's not forget that it's not like Senga is a young pitcher, as he's entering his age-32 season. Projections like Steamer, THE BAT, and OOPSY each have the Mets righty between 150-163 innings, which feels reasonable.

That type of low innings projection with a floor of missing time is not desirable, even at the current 159.35 ADP price. There's no guarantee that Senga will be ready for Opening Day, as he's been slow to ramp up this spring, with his first outing coming on March 2. Even if he does suit up right away, there could be an adjustment period after missing almost the entire 2024 season.

The better bet here if you're targeting pitchers with injury risk at this cost is to go with Robbie Ray (160.86 ADP), who looked terrific in a small sample for the Giants last season.

You can also play it safer by targeting Cristopher Sanchez (169.65 ADP), who could take his game to the next level following velocity gains this spring. Either way, it doesn't feel like the payout is worth the risk on Senga.

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