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Well, Week 2 certainly didn't let up on the injury front and now we're here to pick up the pieces. We've added three tiers of bids to reflect how conservative or desperate you/your league might be. As always, joining our famous waiver wire pickups list and our weekly fantasy football waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB).
As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free-agent players will go for. Each league values players differently and will continue to do so. These values are here to provide a baseline or priority order to understand roughly how much you should be looking to spend on a particular player, but we've now added different categories of bids to reflect team-need situations.
It's difficult to toe the line between savvy and overreaction, but do consider making a few calculated dart throws at RB/WR this early. Trust your process and us as analysts! Here are my median FAAB bid ranges and adds going into Week 3.
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FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Quarterbacks
Sam Howell (QB, WSH) - 20% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Sam Howell has combined for 501 passing yards, three TDs, and an interception with 4-24-1 on the ground through two games. This is Howell getting up to speed while only posting a 7.1% Aggression Rating (fourth-lowest through Week 2). Expect that to ramp up both through the air and with his legs. His TD passes in Week 2 hinted at what's to come:
The ball placement on Sam Howell's two TD throws vs. Denver ... pic.twitter.com/yxzhWHFoth
— Nicki Jhabvala (@NickiJhabvala) September 18, 2023
C.J. Stroud (QB, HOU) - 9% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
C.J. Stroud still has plenty to learn. However, he battled through a shoulder injury in Week 2 to throw for 384 yards and a pair of TDs while missing nearly his entire starting offensive line. They were the first scores of his NFL career as he found Nico Collins and Tank Dell behind the defense.
Houston is scrappy but will still lose plenty of games, especially with their O-line so banged up. Dameon Pierce is mired in a committee and won’t be leaned on to plow the offense downfield. This is Stroud’s show.
And while he didn’t scramble much in Week 2, perhaps due to the shoulder injury, he did have a sneaky 4-20-0 line in Week 1. He gets Jacksonville next before a tough stretch (PIT, ATL, NO) going into the Week 7 bye. Let’s see if he and the young WR corps can grow well together and supply healthy points, even if it comes in garbage time.
Baker Mayfield (QB, TB) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
The Bucs are off to a 2-0 start behind two solid showings out of Baker Mayfield. He hasn’t turned the ball over yet and has 14 rushes alongside clear chemistry with Mike Evans. We recognize Minnesota and Chicago don’t provide sturdy tests but he draws Philadelphia’s defense next.
The Eagles boast several bright spots but have shown cracks in the armor thus far. Their offense should push the pace and force more action from Mayfield. However, the Bucs then face the Saints in Nawlins before a Week 5 bye, making him a one-week stream.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Running Backs
Jerome Ford (RB, CLE) - 16% rostered
FAAB Bid: 40-60%
Aggressive Bid: 60-75%
Desperation Bid: 75-90%
Lost Chubb Desperation Bid: 90-100%
Prayers up for Nick Chubb, who suffered a major knee injury on Monday night. There’s no replacing a superstar runner like Chubb, but Jerome Ford is the next man up. He ran for 106 yards, adding a 3-25-1 receiving line. We’ll see what level of trust Cleveland has in him here, or if they make a move for Kareem Hunt/Leonard Fournette or trade for Cam Akers/D'Onta Foreman.
Pierre Strong Jr. came over from New England and does have a slight size advantage, but Ford is the man as of now, coming in immediately after the Chubb injury to score a touchdown. The Browns’ offense is designed around the RB and Ford could be a massive presence. We know the risk of an outside signing, but this game rarely offers a clear in-season add.
Some will be too desperate to care about the floor out of necessity. We’ve all been there. Ford’s path to valuable touches in a strong running offense makes him a worthy play, especially if you’re 1-1 or 0-2 and/or down a premium draft pick.
Anything is possible, and I don’t necessarily think the Browns “need” a running back.
But for the sake of argument, I’d be surprised if the first guy they call is Kareem Hunt, who they thought looked slow in 2022. https://t.co/OdDhRSDvYl pic.twitter.com/VPkJJ9Kn3L
— Zachary Krueger (@ZK_FFB) September 19, 2023
Justice Hill (RB, BAL) - 44% rostered
FAAB Bid: 20-30%
Aggressive Bid: 30-40%
Desperation Bid: 40-50%
Yes, Gus Edwards ran well and wound up with the touchdown, but Justice Hill still outworked him on the day. Hill outsnapped Edwards 43-to-32 and outcarried him 11-to-10, while running nearly double the routes with three targets to Edwards’ zero, per PFF.
We knew it wouldn’t be a one-man show, but PFF also charted Hill with superior usage in short-yardage, goal-line, and early-down work. One week doesn’t amount to a locked-and-loaded plan, but it’s encouraging for Hill. It’s also nice that Melvin Gordon III was a non-factor, as managing a two-man committee is okay, but three is no good.
Roschon Johnson (RB, CHI) - 38% rostered
FAAB Bid: 7-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-16%
Desperation Bid: 16-25%
Roschon Johnson and the Bears had some tough assignments against Tampa Bay in Week 2. While Johnson and Khalil Herbert ran well, combining for 67 ground yards on just 11 carries, their biggest adversary was Justin Fields and the impotent offense. That’s not going away.
The biggest news for Johnson was D'Onta Foreman being a healthy scratch for Travis Homer, who has a special teams role. Herbert had three targets and Johnson had two, but a two-man split is more enticing as we wait for Johnson to surpass Herbert as the 1A.
Craig Reynolds (RB, DET) - FAAB Bid: 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 10-15%
Aggressive Bid: 15-20%
Desperation Bid: 25-40%
David Montgomery left with a thigh bruise and could miss a week or more. They’re calling it day-to-day for now but Montgomery himself said it would take a few weeks to heal. In the meantime, Craig Reynolds stepped in Montgomery’s role rather than Jahmyr Gibbs simply absorbing more work.
We know Detroit wants to establish the run when possible and it seems they won’t overload the rookie early. No Montgomery would mean Zonovan Knight is a deep-league piece as well, since he’d likely be elevated from the practice squad. But Reynolds did have a pair of top-24 RB finishes down the stretch in 2021 when called upon.
Matt Breida (RB, NYG) - 3% rostered
FAAB Bid: 8-12%
Aggressive Bid: 12-18%
Desperation Bid: 18-25%
Matt Breida becomes Big Blue’s starting RB as Saquon Barkley heals up his sprained ankle. The Giants will need to transition from playing around a superstar RB to leaning on Daniel Jones more, but Breida still has versatility to offer.
Unfortunately, Breida will likely split work with Gary Brightwell. In Week 1, Breida played 16 snaps to Brightwell’s 11 as Saquon Barkley was lifted from the blowout. This could become a worse version of Baltimore’s RB split, which isn’t what you want to hear.
Saquon Barkley OUT 3 Weeks Minimum
NY Giants Backfield, YTD
G.Brightwell —
44 Snaps, 1 Rush, 5 RuYd
7 Routes, 2 Tar, 2/6/0M.Brieda —
2 Snaps, 3 Rush, 14 RuYd
10 Routes, 1 Tar, 1/-3/0#NFLTwitter— John Laghezza MLB / NFL Moving Averages (@JohnLaghezza) September 18, 2023
Tyjae Spears (RB, TEN) - 17% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-10%
Desperation Bid: 10-15%
Tyjae Spears’ 10 touches resulted in 55 total yards, which builds on the seven touches from Week 1. The rookie shows flashes and leaves Tennessee feeling comfortable with giving Derrick Henry a breather.
If something happened to Henry then I doubt they’d suddenly discover a pass-happy playbook, especially if Spears continues to look good in limited work. And Spears’ limited work has flashed a 2.14 Rush Yards Over Expectation per Attempt rate, making him one of five RBs to sit above 2.0. (Small samples are fun!)
Kendre Miller (RB, NO) - 13% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-15%
Jamaal Williams left Week 2 with a hamstring injury, which left Tony Jones Jr. to punch in two touchdowns against Carolina. TJJ only got 34 yards on 12 carries and is an uninspiring fantasy option. Kendre Miller has missed the first two games with his own hamstring injury but could return in Week 3.
Of course, Alvin Kamara returns from his suspension in Week 4 and makes this add a short-term rental. Week 3 against the Packers could be a low-ceiling committee between Miller, Jones, Kirk Merritt, and the versatile Taysom Hill. Or Williams could return for Week 3! It’s extremely murky with a limited payoff.
Ty Chandler (RB, MIN) - FAAB Bid: 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-12%
Ty Chandler only saw three opportunities in Week 2, but this isn’t really about him. Alexander Mattison has looked overmatched as the starting RB and change could be on the horizon. Mattison lost a fumble in Week 2 and only has 62 yards on 19 carries through two games.
Sean Tucker (RB, TB) - 4% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Box-score hawks will scoff at Sean Tucker’s seven yards on eight carries, but this is about the usage and team circumstance. Rachaad White barely beat four yards a carry against a horrid Chicago front and remains inefficient.
The Bucs seemingly agreed, as Chase Edmonds mixed in early before getting hurt. White played on 72% of their snaps here after logging 79% in Week 1. And Edmonds will miss four to six weeks with a Grade 2 MCL sprain, but Todd Bowles said Tampa is likely to stick with their existing RB depth, per FOX’s Greg Auman.
That leaves Tucker as the spellback for an inconsistent White. Whoever the Bucs’ RB is, they will face the uphill battle of finding a hole behind a subpar line that sorely misses Ryan Jensen.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Wide Receivers
Tutu Atwell (WR, LAR) - 25% rostered
FAAB Bid: 7-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
It’s tough to be third fiddle on the hype train behind Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams, but Tutu Atwell deserves his shine. He ramped up the usage to pace LAR WRs by playing on 94% of the snaps with 59 routes run. The Rams needed to keep up with San Francisco and Atwell has now topped 80 total yards in each of LAR’s games in ‘23.
Puka Nacua only has 70 more receiving yards than Tutu Atwell despite seeing more than double (35) Tutu’s targets (17)
— kev mahserejian (@RotoSurgeon) September 18, 2023
This is a tricky one because if he's still available after his solid Week 1 then I'm not sure how aggressive your league will be. But he's had a fantastic pair of games and your league mates (or you!) might suffer from FOMO after missing the Puka train. If you need an immediate plug-in then Atwell fits the bill, but it's tough projecting long-term glory in '23.
I know the looming return of Cooper Kupp feels like the end for Atwell with the emergence of Nacua, but we have at least two weeks until then. And even so, the Rams are seeing Atwell succeed where the likes of Van Jefferson are failing. Over 200 total yards in two games shouldn’t evaporate and Kupp may need additional recovery time. He went to an out-of-town specialist!
Don’t overthink it if you're in need. Atwell and the Rams face a Cincinnati team that can create a shootout if Joe Burrow and company awaken. If you need a wideout then make it happen.
Tank Dell (WR, HOU) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 7-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
Tank Dell exploded for a 7-72-1 line as Houston shuffled its WRs around following Noah Brown’s IR placement. Brown was their slot man in Week 1 but Robert Woods moved inside, leaving Dell and Nico Collins on the perimeter.
What’s fascinating is Dell played more than Collins, who looked amazing himself (7-146-1). But Dell ran more routes out of all kinds of formations as Houston’s WR trio tried to make it a game after the rushing attack failed to make an impact. They’ll often play from behind, which makes the WRs a target. On the off chance outworking Collins becomes a trend, we need to act.
Jayden Reed (WR, GB) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 5-8%
Aggressive Bid: 8-11%
Desperation Bid: 11-15%
Jayden Reed led the Packers with eight targets in Week 2, making headlines along the way with two scores. No receiver topped 40 yards as Jordan Love couldn’t push downfield. Still, it’s nice to see Reed making plays with what they’ve got.
He should maintain his role in the slot when Christian Watson is back, though Green Bay needed Reed more with Aaron Jones also out. Players like Reed and Luke Musgrave won’t be consistent weekly winners but should flash enough to be rostered in 12-teamers.
Jayden Reed has been targeted at one of the highest per-route rates in the NFL.
This is especially noteworthy bc Reed has only played in 3WR sets so far.
Formation affects per-route data. When running a route with two other WR to compete for a target with instead of just one,… https://t.co/eMZNPCJvOI
— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) September 18, 2023
Josh Reynolds (WR, DET) - 12% rostered
FAAB Bid: 4-6%
Aggressive Bid: 6-8%
Desperation Bid: 8-12%
Josh Reynolds shined on a day when Detroit battled the injury bug, notably losing Amon-Ra St. Brown to cramps to free up WR looks. Reynolds snagged five of six targets for 66 yards and two TDs as Detroit and Seattle once again treated us to a slugfest.
The Lions have needed someone to step up alongside ARSB with Jameson Williams suspended and Reynolds has answered the call. This should be more important with David Montgomery missing several weeks due to a thigh injury. Jahmyr Gibbs and Craig Reynolds aren’t an imposing RB duo as it stands (Gibbs is still earning snaps) so Reynolds and the pass-catchers could become the backbone of this offense.
Isaiah Hodgins (WR, NYG) - 5% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-6%
Desperation Bid: 6-10%
Isaiah Hodgins headlines a crowded NYG WR room with his 4-40-1 line on five targets. His score tied the game at 28, but five Giants had at least five looks as they went pass-happy to overcome Arizona’s lead. Hodgins, Darius Slayton, and Parris Campbell may generally cannibalize each other’s value, with Jalin Hyatt’s big-play ability sprinkling in.
However, the injury to Saquon Barkley may create enough passing volume to raise the bar enough all around. Matt Breida will see volume but can’t be the focal point. Darren Waller and the WRs will have to carry on a short week against a San Fran defense that the Rams carved up.
DeVante Parker (WR, NE) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-7%
DeVante Parker led the Patriots with 59 receiving yards after he missed Week 1, which pushed Kayshon Boutte out of the rotation. Demario Douglas also hit the fringe after losing a fumble, leaving Parker, Kendrick Bourne, and JuJu Smith-Schuster as the three mainstays.
The Pats have some frightful matchups on the way (NYJ, DAL, NO) but there’s no doubting Parker’s path to being NE’s No. 1 WR. Bourne is versatile, though traditional perimeter routes aren’t his strength. Smith-Schuster simply lacks explosiveness and we want 100-yard ceilings. Parker is that guy in this offense if one is going to exist.
River Cracraft (WR, MIA) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-4%
Jaylen Waddle is in concussion protocol following a hit to the head on Sunday night. Tyreek Hill said “he’s good,” but we’ll wait until he clears protocol to exhale. In the meantime, River Cracraft would likely see the biggest value jump while Braxton Berrios maintains the slot role. It’s a deep-league dart throw but operating alongside Hill in a creative offense makes for a nifty dart.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Tight Ends
Zach Ertz (TE, ARI) - 10% rostered
FAAB Bid: 6-10%
Aggressive Bid: 10-15%
Desperation Bid: 15-20%
After logging six catches on 10 targets in Week 1, Zach Ertz caught another six on eight looks in Week 2. The resulting 56 yards were more comforting than the 21 against Washington. Arizona can’t supply healthy median outcomes, but those seeking cheap PPR relief must follow the targets and constant negative gamescripts.
List of tight ends with 5+ catches in each of the first two games:
*TJ Hockenson
*Zach Ertz
*Hunter Henry
*Evan Engram
*Sam LaPorta— Sam Hoppen (@SamHoppen) September 18, 2023
Cade Otton (TE, TB) - 2% rostered
FAAB Bid: 1-3%
Aggressive Bid: 3-5%
Desperation Bid: 5-8%
Cade Otton is another beneficiary of Tampa’s struggling rushing attack, as he caught all six targets for 41 yards in Week 2. Again, this is highlighting the potential on a team with low preseason expectations. Their tilt against Philly in Week 3 should demand all hands on deck in an effort to keep up with Jalen Hurts.
John Bates (TE, WSH) - 0% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-4%
This is where I’d stump for Logan Thomas except he was concussed due to a terrible helmet hit from Denver’s Kareem Jackson. Assuming Thomas will miss Week 3 against Buffalo, John Bates worked ahead of Cole Turner in Week 2. The 6’6” TE caught three of five targets for 46 yards and could step into a sizeable role as Eric Bieniemy and company look to match a potent Buffalo offense.
FAAB Waiver Wire Pickups - Defense/Special Teams
Kansas City Chiefs Defense (vs. CHI) - 39% rostered
FAAB Bid: 2-4%
Aggressive Bid: 4-7%
Desperation Bid: 7-10%
Chris Jones generated multiple sacks and five pressures in a limited role throughout his first game of 2023. The Chiefs need him to push the pace and force mistakes from opposing QBs and he often delivers.
Enter Justin Fields, who threw a pair of interceptions and committed two fumbles, though both were recovered by Chicago. The 0-2 Bears are in trouble and should struggle mightily with the noise of Arrowhead Stadium raging at them.
Jacksonville Jaguars Defense (vs. HOU) - 15% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
While Stroud and company showed encouraging signs, the rookie QB is dealing with shoulder pain and did have two fumbles in Week 2 (one lost). The Texans keep falling into holes as the Stroud Era gets up to speed, with the youngster combining for 91 pass attempts in two games. The Jags kept a lid on Patrick Mahomes and should press Stroud into risky throws as they look to capitalize on the many dropbacks.
Seattle Seahawks Defense (vs. CAR) - 8% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-2%
Aggressive Bid: 2-4%
Desperation Bid: 4-6%
The Seahawks got rolled by the Rams in Week 1 but showed up to play in Detroit. After recording zero sacks or turnovers, Seattle sacked Jared Goff twice and generated three turnovers. The Seahawks now get a home date with rookie Bryce Young in Week 3 before a road date with a Saquon Barkley-less Giants.
Las Vegas Raiders Defense (vs. PIT) - 1% rostered
FAAB Bid: 0-1%
Aggressive Bid: 1-3%
Desperation Bid: 3-5%
You hate it, I hate it, but they’re widely available for a reason or three. Vegas could only hold Buffalo back for so long before a 38-point avalanche unraveled. But they held Denver to 16 points and have two sacks in each of their games so far. Their home opener comes in Week 3 against an ailing Pittsburgh with one fewer day of rest. Do you believe?
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