2021 Keeper Value Rankings - First Base

3 years ago by JB Branson

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2. 2021 First Base Keeper Value Rankings

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Many many years ago, I noticed the managers in my long-time keeper league were consistently making terrible keeper decisions year after year. Instead of taking their money every year thought I would help them out and find a good set of Keeper League Rankings to share with them. What I found was quite disturbing.

There appeared to be two types of Keeper Rankings available in the industry: Type A is just the site's normal rankings with younger players boosted. These types of rankings only benefit leagues where all Keepers carry the same cost or no cost, such as Rounds 1-4 for everyone's keepers. I also found a Type B that I have no explanation on how any human could ever perceive to be useful in any type of fantasy format. So instead of pulling a rankings list for them, I sat down on Excel for a good month and the Keeper Value Formula was born.

Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft pick in order to keep a player into the upcoming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values." In the marketing world, Value can be defined as "the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants." The Keeper Values are derived from my Keeper Valuation Formula which accounts for age, player cost (ADP), remaining player pool, past performance, future projections, missed playing time, and even position scarcity.

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JB's Keeper Value System

The final product is a quantitative depiction of a player's ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners' needs based on the cost they paid for the player in the previous season (2020 ADP) and will subsequently pay for in the current season's draft (2021). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player keeping him at their associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this value-based attitude will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a keeper league.

Whereas the main purpose of the Keeper Value Formula is for customization based on specific leagues and keeper costs, I create these yearly rankings with standard 12 team league data, 2020 ADP, and 23rd Round cost for UDFA just as a baseline to help managers get an idea of their options. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB to check out your specific league's values.

TIER	SCORE	DESCRIPTION
1	>100	Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT at all costs.
2	75-99	Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept.
3	50-74	You are gaining good value with these players. The majority of good keeper options tend to fall into this category.
4	25-49	Minimal value. The value exists, but not as much as your opponents are likely receiving with their selections. Consider if your options are limited.
5	0-24	Break-even point. Keeping these players will likely hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding enough value. The idea is if you don't use a keeper selection here you can likely still draft that player in the vicinity of their 2020 cost.
6	<0	The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away.

2021 First Base Keeper Value Rankings

POS Rank	Keeper Tier	Player		Cost ('20 ADP)	Keeper Score
1	2	Luke Voit	NYY	16	86.28
2	2	Dominic Smith	NYM	23	76.77
3	3	Jose Abreu	CWS	6	72.81
4	3	Freddie Freeman	ATL	2	67.12
5	3	DJ LeMahieu	NYY	5	58.93
6	3	Ryan Mountcastle	BAL	23	53.02
7	4	Eric Hosmer	SDP	19	47.18
8	4	Jake Cronenworth	SDP	23	45.17
9	4	Jared Walsh	LAA	23	39.28
10	4	Trey Mancini	BAL	22	39.11
11	4	Christian Walker	ARI	18	30.50
12	4	Vladimir Guerrero Jr	TOR	6	28.83
13	5	Jeimer Candelario	DET	23	20.13
14	5	Andrew Vaughn	CWS	23	16.23
15	5	Bobby Dalbec	BOS	23	15.51
16	5	Rowdy Tellez	TOR	23	12.69
17	5	Jesus Aguilar	MIA	23	8.44
18	5	Brandon Belt	SFG	23	8.02
19	5	Nate Lowe	TEX	23	2.02

Tier Two

No Tier One scores for First Basemen this season, so we begin with numero dos.

The leader of the pack, Luke Voit was one of the biggest surprises of the 2020 season. He hit a career-high 22 HR, in just 56 games, and still hit .277 despite a career-low .268 BABIP. The .333 ISO was second to only Juan Soto. With his LA noticeably up along with his contact numbers, Voit has the potential to post Jose Abreu-type numbers in that ballpark in that offense. There is some "worry" about plantar fasciitis that was diagnosed in October, but Voit claims PRP has made it a non-issue.

There is no doubt that Dominic Smith can hit. Last season his xBA, xSLG, and wOBA were all top six percent in baseball. There is warranted doubt about his ability to man Leftfield over a full season, however. With the National League appearing to revert back to letting pitchers take three pitches with their bats on their shoulder, accurately projecting Dom's PA is virtually impossible. He owns a career -7 DRS in LF and the Mets now have a ton of lineup flexibility after adding Jonathan Villar, Albert Almora, and Kevin Pillar into the depth-mix with Luis Guillorme. They can now get Pillar's glove in the later innings, or get Villar/Guillorme into the infield and move Jeff McNeil or J.D. Davis into the OF. The numbers will still look efficient for Smith at the end of the season, but the counting stats will surely be somewhat limited. Nevertheless considering no one was drafting him in 2020 he could be a huge bargain in your keeper league.

Tier Three

The AL MVP winner Jose Abreu enjoyed a throwback season that was his best since his 2014 "rookie" campaign. Abreu has been as consistent as they come since joining the White Sox, ranking fourth in PA since 2014, and second in RBI. The .350 BABIP likely won't sustain over a full season, but the White Sox lineup is only getting better and you can safely expect another 30 HR, ~180 R+RBI season with a BA north of .270. The ~four round difference in cost between him and Freeman gives Abreu a slight advantage in the formula.

There's not much left to say about Freddie Freeman. He is one of the best all-around hitters in the game. Over the past five seasons, Freeman ranks in the top 10 among all hitters in PA, R, HR, RBI, and BA. Outside of Mike Trout there is no safer pick in fantasy, and it feels like Freeman just keeps getting better with age. In 2020 along with the NL MVP award, he led the league in R+RBI, and hit .341. There is nothing quite like starting a fantasy lineup with this level of an anchor across four stats, which is why even at a ~second round cost Freeman still rocks a 67 keeper score.

There was a lot of hesitation with DJ LeMahieu early this draft season due to the possibility of him not calling Yankee Stadium home. But fear not, because he is returning to the Bronx for the next six seasons. The 2020 batting champ returning near the top of the Bombers' lineup smacking oppo line-drives into the short porch in right field lines up another outstanding fantasy season for DJL. If you prefer more pop from your first baseman, that is fine, but good luck finding a better BA base. It all comes down to your planned roster construction plans. If you expect to make up power with your other keepers, and especially if your league allows the multi-position eligibility, don't pass on DJ.

After Ryan Mountcastle hit five bombs with a stellar .333 BA across 140 PA in his MLB action, projection systems have him firmly in Alec Bohm territory as a mid-round BA boost with modest power. The discounted price compared to Bohm comes with being on the Baltimore Orioles, although the return of Trey Mancini could certainly help the RBI.

Tier Four

No one gains fantasy value from their lineup quite like Eric Hosmer. A career .278 hitting first baseman that's never eclipsed 25 HR in a season, yet is hitting in the heart of the order surrounded by the likes of Fernando Tatis, Manny Machado, Tommy Pham, Wil Myers, and Trent Grisham. Even though the LA is finally showing increases, you definitely won't be excited about this keeper selection, but you won't be disappointed at season's end either.

Jared Walsh probably won some fantasy leagues with his September heroics, hitting nine bombs and .337 in his last 95 PA (he went hitless in just 13 PA prior to that in 2020). He is an old prospect, but absolutely destroyed Triple-A pitching in 2019 to the tune of 36 HR and .325 BA in 454 PA. The potential power is exciting, along with hitting near Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon in the lineup, but we must remember the Angels do have a highly-paid future-HOF that can also play 1B. Most projection systems peg Walsh in the 475 PA territory, which as we saw in his Triple-A time, could be plenty enough for some useful pop.

I love the value on Trey Mancini. He missed the 2020 season after a terrifying cancer diagnosis, which understandingly drove down his 2020 ADP. As of now, all signs point towards Mancini back into an everyday role for the Orioles. He broke out with a career-season in 2019 hitting 35 HR with 203 R+RBI and a .291 BA. Sometimes you gotta risk it to get the biscuit.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. once again is a popular name this draft season, as he most likely will be for many years to come, even if he fails to meet expectations again in 2021. Despite just nine bombs and a .262 BA last year, Vladito enjoyed plenty of hard contact as both his EV and Hard Hit% were in the top seven percent of the league. The issue is still getting the ball in the air though, as his LA dipped from an already low 6.7 to a sad 4 degrees. It will all come together eventually, as the prodigy is still just 21 years old, and if you are able to keep him near his sixth-round 2020 ADP there could be huge benefits to reap in 2021.

Tier Five

In this episode of forgotten cleanup hitters, we have Jeimer Candelario, who will get as much playing time as he can handle for the Tigers. If 2020's sample can qualify as such, the 27-year-old switch-hitter had a breakout season hitting .297/.369/.503 with a modest seven dongs. He enjoyed increases in barrel%, EV, and hard hit rate while boasting a career-high 25.9 line drive percentage. He will hit for a higher BA than what the projections systems forecast, and while hitting behind Jonathan Schoop and Miguel Cabrera doesn't have the allure it once had, Candelario should still return modest value with a late keeper cost.

Our last two first basemen are young studs with very little or no big-league experience but have the ceilings and 2021 opportunities to return huge value. Bobby Dalbec played 23 games with the Red Sox in 2020, and showed off his "powah" with eight bombs in just 92 PA. That pace would be ridiculous over a full season, but would translate to 43 HR over 500 PA. It's all for fun after such a small sample but 22 Barrel% and a full season in the AL East ballparks will not let me project anything less than 30 HR for Dalbec in 2021. The main problem is obviously a glaring 42.4 K%, but considering he whiffed at a 25.1% rate in 105 Double-A games and 23.6% rate in 30 Triple-A games in 2019 tells me he's not actually Chris Davis. Even a slight improvement in the K department will probably still leave him near the bottom of the Sox lineup, but once again this is all about ceiling.

When will the White Sox call up their 2019 first-round pick? Andrew Vaughn has the tools to contribute at the big leagues right away, and the Chi Sox have a big opening for him to hit in the DH spot. Manager Tony La Russa recently included Vaughn's name in the "in pencil" roster group rather than the "in ink" one, but no one believes with the 2021 expectations for this team that Vaughn will be off the big league roster for long. Despite never seeing a PA above A ball, this is a guy you want to ensure you have on your roster in keeper leagues.

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