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Hello everyone, and welcome to my weekly Top-30 Fantasy Rankings for Impact Rookies! In this series, I will be going over the top prospects in baseball and discussing which ones figure to have an impact for the rest of this fantasy baseball season.
What a crazy week for prospect promotions it has been thus far. The Los Angeles Dodgers called up their top prospect Cody Bellinger yesterday, the Seattle Mariners finally called up Dan Vogelbach, the Kansas City Royals promoted Jorge Bonifacio, the Colorado Rockies called up German Marquez and the San Francisco Giants called up Christian Arroyo. Needless to say, a lot of changes were made to this list between this week and last.
Beyond just the many promotions (which you can read about in my recently promoted prospects article that will come out on Thursday), there are other recent developments that affect prospect value. The Pirates opted for Jose Osuna and not Austin Meadows following Starling Marte’s suspension, Madison Bumgarner crashed his motor bike, leaving a hole in the San Francisco Giants rotation and Keon Broxton continues to really disappoint with Milwaukee. How will these developments affect the prospects list? I guess you will just have to read to find out …
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Top MLB Prospects - Fantasy Baseball Power Rankings
To be clear, this list is not the top 30 prospects in baseball. This is a list of the top 30 prospects who are likely going to rise to the major leagues and provide fantasy baseball value this season. The qualifications are simple: a player must not be on an active roster, they must have a clear path to the majors, and while they may have played in seasons prior to 2016, they must still have rookie eligibility. If a player is moved to the active roster of their team, they will be removed from this power rankings list and replaced.
1. Yoan Moncada (2B/3B, CWS, AAA)
Stats: 68 PA, .300/.382/.517, 4 HR, 4 SB, 11.8% BB rate, 30.9% K rate
ETA: Early June
Going just by pure upside, there is little doubt Moncada is the top guy on this list. There is little he can’t do at the plate and he would be an absolute force for fantasy owners. But he is not without his flaws. He still struggles to hit left-handers and still strikes out a ton. Moncada will likely be promoted in June, but owners will need to count on the talented switch-hitter to go through a little bit of a learning curve before he is fully ready to become the fantasy stud everyone expects him to be. With that said, his upside warrants a serious look from owners, and he should be at least stashed in all fantasy leagues once promoted.
2. Tom Murphy (C, COL, DL)
Stats: NA
ETA: Early May
There has still been no word yet as to how Murphy is progressing through his injury, but owners will need to display some patience. Murphy will absolutely slide back into the right-side of the Rockies’ catcher platoon once he is ready to come off the DL as Dustin Garneau is still batting well below .200 with a near 50 percent strikeout rate. And with Murphy’s insane power upside in Coors Field, there is no reason he should not be owned in all leagues once he is activated.
3. Austin Meadows (OF, PIT, AAA)
Stats: 67 PA, .200/.269/.283, 1 HR, 2 SB, 7.5% BB rate, 22.4% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
There is no doubt Meadows started the season off cold. In his first 24 plate appearances of the season, spanning six games, he had just one hit. Since then, he is slashing .262/.319/.357 with a 6.4 percent walk rate and 12.8 percent strikeout rate. And while I’m sure owners would love to see more out of him than that, it is undeniably a step in the right direction. Meadows was initially passed over for the call up following Marte’s suspension, but he could get called up after his Super Two deadline passes and take over a more permanent role with the team.
Some have also expressed concerns that he will not start once Marte returns. While that may be true, if the Pirates fall out of contention without Marte, that may entice them to sell Andrew McCutchen to open up a spot on their roster for Meadows permanently. If the Pirates appear to be in a state of free-fall as we approach the beginning of June, I would advise owners in all leagues to pick him up off the waivers as he could be a second-half savior for fantasy owners.
4. Brandon Woodruff (SP, MIL, AAA)
Stats: 22.1 IP, 1.61 ERA, 3.79 FIP, 18.9% K rate, 6.7% BB rate, 0.40 HR/9, .198 AVG
ETA: Early June
Woodruff this season has just one start where he has allowed any earned runs out of four total starts. This all while making three overall starts (two of his scoreless outings) in an incredibly hitter-friendly ballpark down in Colorado Springs. To put that in perspective, only Chase Anderson (two) and Wily Peralta (one) have any scoreless starts this season. Woodruff is not an overwhelming pitcher, but he knows how to get guys out and use his stuff well. He may provide owners with solid strikeout numbers, but primarily innings and a respectable ERA. The current Milwaukee rotation right now is not very good, and once they decide to make a change, it is probable Woodruff’s name will be on the shortlist for a spot.
5. Tyler Beede (SP, SF, AAA)
Stats: 21.0 IP, 4.29 ERA, 4.95 FIP, 14.1% K rate, 10.9% BB rate, 0.86 HR/9, .256 AVG
ETA: Early May
With Bumgarner on the 10-day DL now for an extended period of time, the Giants may opt to turn to top pitching prospect Tyler Beede to help pick up the slack. Beede has not been dominating by any means this season, but the Giants don’t have very many options ready to step up and fill a rotation spot for them. Beede will not strike out a ton of batters for fantasy owners, but he should be able to provide a respectable ERA in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. If he can start turning his season around, he might be worth owning in 12+ team leagues.
6. Lewis Brinson (OF, MIL, AAA)
Stats: 54 PA, .388/.426/.653, 3 HR, 3 SB, 5.6% BB rate, 20.4% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
Outside of Ryan Braun, the Milwaukee Brewers’ outfield has been dreadful to begin the year. Keon Broxton is batting under .200 with a 41.0 percent strikeout rate and Domingo Santana is still batting under .200 with a strikeout rate slightly above. Brinson, on the other hand, has been off to a hot start this season outside of some suspect plate discipline numbers thus far. Brinson brings to owners an exciting power/speed combination that few in the minors can match, and any potential playing time would be enough to warrant an extended look by owners in all leagues.
7. Bradley Zimmer (OF, CLE, AAA))
Stats: 68 PA, .230/.299/.443, 2 HR, 5 SB, 7.4% BB rate, 29.4% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
Zimmer got off to his usual hot start, and now is slowing down a bit. Over his past five games, he is slashing just .105/.227/.263 with a 40.9 percent strikeout rate. Zimmer has come back down to Earth, but his upside is still too great to pass up on should he receive a promotion. His power/speed combination is probably just a notch below Brinson and would warrant ownership in 10+ team leagues if he gets the call-up.
8. Yandy Diaz (3B, CLE, AAA)
Stats: 9 PA, .250/.333/.375, 0 HR, 0 SB, 11.1% BB rate, 11.1% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
Diaz had a brief taste at the majors before he was sent back down to Triple-A Columbus, and though it was nothing to write home about (.236/.295/.255), he at least held his own. Many see him as the future third baseman for the team with Jose Ramirez serving primarily as a super-utility guy for the team, leaving hope that Diaz will be back up. Though he neither hits for a ton of power nor steals a ton of bases, he is a reliable bat for batting average in deeper leagues.
9. Franklin Barreto (SS, OAK, AAA)
Stats: 81 PA, .352/.400/.549, 3 HR, 1 SB, 6.2% BB rate, 29.6% K rate
ETA: Early August
Barreto’s promotion it appears will have to wait until after the Super Two deadline to pass before he will see time in the majors. Some hoped that he would be called up to the big leagues after Marcus Semien’s injury, but alas, it was not to be. But Barreto will receive his chance to come up to the majors this season, and once he does, owners will be in for quite the treat. Last season, he totaled 11 home runs and 30 stolen bases, a trend of power and speed he has displayed throughout his MiLB career. His plate discipline needs a little bit more refining, but the 21-year-old is sure to be a productive bat once he finally gets his chance in the majors.
10. Derek Fisher (OF, HOU, AAA)
Stats: 76 PA, .254/.360/.444, 3 HR, 2 SB, 13.2% BB rate, 25.0% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
Like Barreto, Fisher has his strikeout issues. He has never posted a sub-20 percent strikeout rate in his professional career. But with that said, he has posted back-to-back 20/20 seasons with relatively high walk rates. Fisher is one of the more explosive prospects in the Astros’ system, consistently finding himself within their top-five guys. He will likely get his chance to snag a big-league job at some point during this season and really help fantasy owners in need of some power and speed.
11. Jeimer Candelario (3B, CHC, AAA)
Stats: 76 PA, .297/.408/.656, 3 HR, 0 SB, 14.5% BB rate, 26.3% K rate
ETA: Late July
Someone asked a great question on Reddit last week when they asked why Candelario was ranked ahead of Ian Happ. Here’s where I explain my answer. Candelario is almost certainly not going to be a Cub by the end of the year. He will certainly be traded for some pitcher and get his chance to play somewhere else. Happ, on the other hand, has a future in Chicago and is quite unlikely to be dealt away just yet. I would expect though for Candelario to have an immediate impact on fantasy rosters as soon as he is traded. Once he gets a chance to start, add him in 12+ team leagues as an all-around quality hitter at the hot corner.
12. Lucas Giolito (SP, CWS, AAA)
Stats: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 6.36 FIP, 24.2% K rate, 13.6% BB rate, 1.93 HR/9, .241 AVG
ETA: Late June
The top three arms in the Chicago White Sox rotation have all posted very respectable ERAs, but every pitcher there with the exception of Derek Holland has a FIP above 4.00. None of them appear poised to continue success, which is good for guys like Giolito and Lopez because it means they may both have a chance to join the rotation if they can overcome their current struggles. Giolito has struggled with walks again, though strikeouts have remained a plus for him. He still has a lights out repertoire of pitches, but needs to work on controlling them better if he hopes to find success in the majors. Should he receive a call-up to the majors, he would be a decent option to stash in 12+ team leagues.
13. Reynaldo Lopez (SP, CWS, AAA)
Stats: 20.1 IP, 4.87 ERA, 6.38 FIP, 23.2% K rate, 13.7% BB rate, 2.21 HR/9, .247 AVG
ETA: Late June
Like Giolito, Lopez has greatly struggled to begin the season, but the issue for him has been at the hands of the home run ball. He has given up at least one long ball in every start and has walked four batters in two separate starts thus far. He has had his fair share of issues, but he should start to figure things out soon. Like Giolito, he still has dominating stuff and should be able to pitch his way through these early-season struggles. Once he gets the call up, he would definitely be worth a look in 12+ team leagues.
14. Ian Happ (2B/OF, CHC, AAA)
Stats: 83 PA, .253/.325/.560, 7 HR, 1 SB, 9.6% BB rate, 20.5% K rate
ETA: Early August
As discussed earlier, Happ’s value is capped by the fact he is unlikely to be dealt by Chicago this season. His value in fact, hinges almost entirely on an injury. If someone like Ben Zobrist or Javier Baez were to be injured, Happ might be the first name up to the big leagues, but owners would never want to have to count on an injury for value. He is not a guy to stash in any format, but his increased power and decent speed at a middle-infield position would make him a solid player to own for teams in the midst of a playoff chase should the Cubs give him a call up to the majors.
15. Yohander Mendez (SP, TEX, AA)
Stats: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 6.31 FIP, 17.6% K rate, 12.2% BB rate, 1.62 HR/9, .270 AVG
ETA: Early July
Probably to the surprise of no one, the Texas Rangers’ rotation has not looked good to start the season. Yu Darvish has really been the only steady presence for them so far and no one should count on guys like A.J. Griffin (DL), Martin Perez, Andrew Casher or Nick Martinez to really pick the Rangers to a division title. If they need a rotation upgrade, expect them to turn to a guy like Mendez if they feel he can handle the workload.
Mendez has just one season with more than 100 innings pitched (last year), but if he can stay healthy and balance his workload, he could be ready to start taking regular starting time in the rotation. He certainly has the talent to become a potential frontline starter for fantasy owners and could provide some value to owners in the midst of a playoff chase.
16. Rowdy Tellez (1B, TOR, AAA)
Stats: 59 PA, .160/.288/.280, 2 HR, 0 SB, 15.3% BB rate, 22.0% K rate
ETA: Early July
Tellez has a relatively clear path to playing time: Justin Smoak needs to be terrible. Smoak started off the season cold, but has since turned his numbers around a bit, now owning a .271/.317/.525 slash line with three homers. Tellez, on the other hand, has struggled at Triple-A, though his unfortunate .171 BABIP may have something to do with that. Tellez was cited by manager John Gibbons during Spring Training as a guy to watch out for this season and might still have some value should Smoak struggle later on in the year. He is a very powerful hitter with the chance to hit 20-30 homers over a full season of work, and owners in need of some help at first base could definitely have a need for Tellez if he forces his way to the regular DH or first base job in Toronto.
17. Ronald Guzman (1B, TEX, AAA)
Stats: 78 PA, .324/.385/.479, 3 HR, 0 SB, 6.4% BB rate, 17.9% K rate
ETA: Early July
Mike Napoli, in his return to Texas for the third time, has been the regular first baseman thus far for the club. He is slashing .169/.263/.338 with three homers thus far. Shin-Soo Choo has been the designated hitter for the team. He is slashing .224/.357/.293 with just one home run. The Rangers are already five games behind the Astros in first and may need a boost to help them climb up in the standings. Guzman, a left-handed slugger, could be just the platoon mate Napoli needs and could really help to solidify the position for years to come. Guzman has a ton of power and a great eye at the plate, which should help minimize the potential struggles he might face when he debuts. First base is a demanding position for fantasy purposes, but Guzman may be able to deliver the goods in 12+ team leagues once he receives his promotion.
18. Jesse Winker (OF, CIN, AAA)
Stats: 62 PA, .308/.387/.385, 0 HR, 0 SB, 12.9% BB rate, 9.7% K rate
ETA: Early July
Like the Rangers, the Reds have a need for a more consistent bat where Winker will eventually be playing. Scott Schebler is slashing just .191/.267/.456, and though he has five homers already, he may not be the solution the team needs at the position. Winker on the other hand is a reliable bat who will almost certainly see no immediate bumps in the road from an on-base perspective as he has the best eye and plate discipline of any batter in the minors. And though the power has not been there for him for a while, Winker should be able to find a little more pop playing in Great American Smallpark where the ball does not have nearly as far to travel to get out. He is not the most exciting option, but owners looking for a solid batting average and some moderate pop could benefit from a guy like Winker in their redraft leagues.
19. Chad Green (SP, NYY, AAA)
Stats: 22.0 IP, 2.05 ERA, 1.90 FIP, 31.8% K rate, 4.6% BB rate, 0.41 HR/9, .226 AVG
ETA: Early June
It is crazy to say that the weak link in the Yankees’ rotation to this point has been Masahiro Tanaka. Meanwhile Jordan Montgomery, Luis Severino and Michael Pineda are currently leading the staff in WAR. At some point, however, you feel like one of those guys is going to slip up and start to fall a little bit off kilter as none of them have demonstrated consistent greatness over a prolonged stretch of time (outside of Severino in the minors before his promotion) and when they do have issues, Green will almost certainly be the first guy up to come and replace one of them. Green has been dominating the minors this season and looks big-league ready. He is no strikeout artist, but he should provide some solid K numbers and a respectable ERA if he is called up.
20. Amed Rosario (SS, NYM, AAA)
Stats: 77 PA, .414/.455/.486, 0 HR, 5 SB, 6.5% BB rate, 10.4% K rate
ETA: Early August
Asdrubal Cabrera has been hitting enough at shortstop to keep Rosario down, but Jose Reyes has been abysmal to start off the season, slashing just .104/.189/.134. Many believe Rosario’s time will not come until much later in the season with the Mets having several options to potentially fill third base with, but if Rosario keeps this pace up, he should at least accelerate the previously planned timeline for him.
21. Luke Weaver (SP, STL, AAA)
Stats: 2.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 2.52 FIP, 14.3% K rate, 0.0% BB rate, 0.00 HR/9, .143 AVG
ETA: Early June
22. Gavin Cecchini (3B, NYM, AAA)
Stats: 79 PA, .227/.310/.373, 2 HR, 3 SB, 10.7% BB rate, 13.1% K rate
ETA: Mid-June
23. Raimel Tapia (OF, COL, AAA)
Stats: 64 PA, .356/.406/.525, 0 HR, 2 SB, 7.8% BB rate, 15.6% K rate
ETA: Early August
24. Casey Gillaspie (1B, TB, AAA)
Stats: 71 PA, .188/.254/.266, 1 HR, 1 SB, 8.5% BB rate, 19.7% K rate
ETA: Early August
25. Jae-gyun Hwang (3B, SF, AAA)
Stats: 70 PA, .303/.343/.394, 0 HR, 1 SB, 5.7% BB rate, 22.9% K rate
ETA: Early August
26. Mitch Garver (C, MIN, AAA)
Stats: 34 PA, .346/.500/.615, 1 HR, 0 SB, 20.6% BB rate, 23.5% K rate
ETA: Early July
27. Clint Frazier (OF, NYY, AAA)
Stats: 63 PA, .212/.317/.423, 2 HR, 2 SB, 11.1% BB rate, 22.2% K rate
ETA: Mid-August
28. Zack Burdi (RP, CWS, AAA)
Stats: 5.2 IP, 4.76 ERA, 1.52 FIP, 36.7% K rate, 10.0% BB rate, 0.00 HR/9, .269 AVG
ETA: Early August
29. Josh Hader (SP, MIL, AAA)
Stats: 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 6.72 FIP, 17.9% K rate, 16.7% BB rate, 1.80 HR/9, .200 AVG
ETA: Early August
30. Tyler O’Neill (OF, SEA, AAA)
Stats: 79 PA, .208/.266/.417, 3 HR, 4 SB, 7.6% BB rate, 26.6% K rate
ETA: Mid-August
MLB Rookie Rankings
1. Andrew Benintendi (OF, BOS)
2. Manuel Margot (OF, SD)
3. Aaron Judge (OF, NYY)
4. Mitch Haniger (OF, SEA)
5. Dansby Swanson (SS, ATL)
6. Josh Bell (1B/OF, PIT)
7. Trey Mancini (1B/OF, BAL)
8. Hunter Renfroe (OF, SD)
9. Albert Almora (OF, CHC)
10. Matt Davidson (3B, CWS)
11. Cody Bellinger (1B/OF, LAD)
12. Amir Garrett (SP, CIN)
13. Jharel Cotton (SP, OAK)
14. Koda Glover (RP, WAS)
15. Robert Gsellman (SP, NYM)
16. Antonio Senzatela (SP, COL)
17. Dan Vogelbach (1B, SEA)
18. Jorge Bonifacio (OF, KC)
19. Christian Arroyo (3B, SF)
20. Andrew Toles (OF, LAD)
