March 8, 2016

Ricky Delgado analyzes Robinson Cano as a 2016 fantasy baseball sleeper and draft value. This MLB second baseman projects to exceed his ADP and can be a sleeper.

2015 In Review

Robinson Cano has played in at least 156 games every season for the past nine years, establishing himself as one of the most reliable second basemen in the game. Last year, however, he had his worst season in seven years, hitting just .287, picking up just 179 base hits (low for his standards), and recording just 79 RBI, still good enough to lead all second basemen. Later it was revealed that he’d still been dealing with the stomach parasite that first affected him in August of 2014, and if that was what limited him to just four HR and a .238 BA during the first three months of the season, that’s perfectly believable. Why? Because he regained his form in the second half of the season, hitting .331 with 15 HR. It was the best half of a season he’s had in Seattle, but is it a sign of things to come?

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2016 Outlook

Last October, Cano underwent surgery to repair a double hernia, indicating that he had his big second-half resurgence while dealing with another injury. He figures to be completely healthy for this season, which is a reason for optimism. A month later, a report from the New York Daily News suggested that Cano was unhappy in Seattle and longed to return to New York. Even if that was true, the Mariners will be adding Nori Aoki, Adam Lind and a returning Ketel Marte to a lineup that already includes Cano, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz, which will surely make him happier. This will only be Cano’s third season with the Mariners, but it appears to be the best lineup he’s hit in with the team thus far. Last year, he spent his time in the lineup between the third and fourth bat, but this year he should be back to third bat, leaving Nelson Cruz to be the cleanup hitter.

Cano’s age has to come into question when considering how he’ll perform. The 2016 campaign will be his 12th in the majors, but he’s still only 33 years old, young enough to deliver numbers at a prime caliber. Spring training should not be initially looked upon as an indication of how Cano will perform, as he will battle to regain strength following the surgery. This season, however, should call for the same expectations that Cano has come to regularly deliver: a .300 batting average, 20 HR and just in the territory of 80 RBI. If he approached nearly all three of these goals last year while dealing with multiple health issues, why shouldn’t he get those numbers down now that he’s completely healthy?

Conclusion

This is where the term “sleeper” becomes interesting to consider. Is Cano really a sleeper when he’s regarded as a top three fantasy option for second basemen? Perhaps if he’d started strong and finished weakly last year, that term could be used, but he was able to regain the magic down the stretch. There is no feasible argument to be made for taking Cano ahead of Jose Altuve and even Dee Gordon, following his impressive breakout season, but Cano fits right in there behind them as the next best option. Fantasy baseball owners should look for him to survive the first three draft rounds or so, but after that, he could go at any pick.

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