RADIO
Week 12 is now in the books leaving the majority of fantasy leagues with only two regular-season games remaining. We also move on from another plentiful week with no byes directly into a week with six teams on bye. Playoff spots in many leagues will be decided this week, as well as playoff seeding and first-round byes. For certain teams, Week 14 won’t matter. Those fortunate enough to earn a first-round bye in their league may not have a game that matters until Week 16. For others, maybe the playoffs are not in the cards this season, but you are still playing to win at all costs. Along with the typical rankings and tiers, this article will include strategy and advice for those scenarios. But unless you truly dominated your league, Week 13 does matter, so we need to focus on getting that win this week.
I did okay with my rankings in Week 12, other than my top-ranked DST. I thought the Chiefs were a smash play against the Raiders, and while Kansas City ended up winning the game handily, they did so with only one sack and no turnovers. I am still ranking the Chiefs in the Top 10 this week as I think Week 12 was an outlier week for the Chiefs defense, which had not recorded less than three sacks since Week 4. But there were some definite hits in the Top 10 last week. The Dolphins (last week’s DST3) were the top-scoring unit, aided by a 99-yard interception return for a TD on a Hail Mary attempt by the Jets at the end of the first half (we may never see that happen again). The Cowboys’ DST had another big week, with DeRon Bland setting an NFL record with his fifth interception return for a TD of the season. The 49ers sacked Geno Smith seven times on their way to a Top 5 finish as well and showed me the last evidence I needed to no longer consider the Seahawks a bad matchup for DSTs (hello Dallas, yet again).
On the disappointing end of the spectrum, I ranked the Ravens too low against the Chargers, a situation where I let matchup strength dictate my ranking more than I should have with an elite unit like the Ravens. Baltimore held the Chargers to only 10 points at home, with three sacks and four forced turnovers. The Browns were a major disappointment against the Broncos, allowing 27 points with only one sack and one fumble recovery. The Broncos are no longer a positive matchup for DSTs, but I still thought the Browns would have a much stronger defensive effort as they battle for a playoff spot.
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How To Determine What Defenses To Start
When it comes to determining the top fantasy football defenses each week, you should look at which units have the most upside and can change the trajectory of your matchup. Defenses are often overlooked in fantasy, but the top DST scorers from each week can outscore some of your opponent's key starters. If you started the Dolphins in Week 12 you increased your chances of winning your matchup significantly.
We also need to pay attention to matchup strength. In determining DST matchup strength, I use an adjusted fantasy points-allowed system. I include the raw fantasy points allowed per game to the DST position. I then factor in how that PPG allowed compares to the opponent's average DST PPG. For instance, let’s say Team A allows 10 fantasy points to the Cowboys’ DST. Team B allows five fantasy points to the Panthers’ DST. If looking only at raw fantasy points allowed, Team B is ranked as a tougher matchup having given up half as many points. But if the Cowboys’ DST is averaging 16 PPG while the Panthers’ DST is averaging only one PPG, that needs to be factored into the overall matchup strength. Team A’s Points Over Average (POA) allowed is -7. Team B’s POA allowed is +4. I assign weight to POA which is factored into the overall rank.
Along with season-long POA allowed, my formula for adjusted fantasy points allowed also factors in POA allowed over each team’s last five and last three games. I made some minor qualitative adjustments to the ranks to account for current situations not reflected in past results. For instance, in my formula, the Bengals still present as a tough matchup for DSTs, but the majority of the data informing that result also includes Joe Burrow as the Bengals’ starter. Now that the Bengals are relying on a backup, I am manually moving them down until we have a larger sample size with Jake Browning at QB. Each opponent will include their current rank, with lower numbers representing tougher matchups and higher numbers representing easier matchups.
Matchup strength is important, but it typically shouldn’t outweigh the strength of the DST in making a decision. To maximize the upside of your fantasy defense each week, you need to target units that can get to the quarterback constantly and cause turnovers. Sacks, turnovers, and defensive touchdowns are what create high ceilings for these fantasy defenses. To determine a somewhat safe start at defense, you should look at low point totals and teams projected to hold their opponents below 20 points.
Tier 1 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
Miami Dolphins DST @WAS
Yahoo Rostership%: 89%
Vegas Odds: MIA favored by 9.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 49.5
Implied points against: 20
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 29th
The Dolphins paced the DST field in fantasy points in Week 12, and they have a good chance to repeat that in Week 13. A few different teams have been battling for the “best DST matchup” crown over the course of the season, and the Commanders are right in the thick of that race (with the Giants and Jets). Currently ranked as the fourth-most favorable matchup for DSTs, the Commanders will likely find little success running the ball against the Dolphins and their Top 10 rushing yards allowed per game (78.8).
But if you are playing the Dolphins DST, you want Sam Howell dropping back and throwing passes. Howell has been better than advertised as a fifth-round QB, but he takes a lot of sacks and turns the ball over. With an over-under near 50 points and an implied points against of 20, this shapes up to be a game where the DST points will come from sacks and turnovers (and hopefully another pick-six) rather than low points allowed.
Dolphins pick-6 on the Jets hail mary at the end of the half! 🤯
(Via: NFL, Prime Video)pic.twitter.com/MXk8Y1N5SC
— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 24, 2023
Dallas Cowboys DST vs. SEA
Yahoo Rostership%: 100%
Vegas Odds: DAL favored by 8.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 19
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 18th
The Cowboys have had an amazing stretch of DST matchups over the last month, and they get one more positive matchup before their gauntlet of negative matchups begins in Week 14. Earlier in the season, the Seahawks would not have been seen as a positive matchup, and their season-long POA allowed is still technically negative at -0.2 PPG. But even if we call them a neutral DST matchup, the Cowboys are a must-start DST at home. Currently the overall DST1 on the season in PPG, fantasy managers will have a decision to make starting in Week 14 when Dallas hosts Philadelphia, followed by road games against the Bills and Dolphins. But in Week 13 against a struggling Seattle offense, the Cowboys are once again a Tier 1 DST.
I thought the Dallas Cowboys defense was going to really struggle without Trevon Diggs
Then I got to know Daron Bland
pic.twitter.com/ztKjo9SwPz— Colin McTamany (@Colin_McT) November 24, 2023
Tier 2 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
Atlanta Falcons DST @NYJ
Yahoo Rostership%: 10%
Vegas Odds: ATL favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 34.5
Implied points against: 15.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 32nd
Atlanta has been an up-and-down defensive unit this season, but they jump to the top of Tier 2 in Week 13 with a game against the Jets. The Jets currently hold the position as the most favorable DST matchup. I don’t think anyone will ever be able to explain to me how Tim Boyle is even in the NFL, let alone about to start his second game of 2023. Over the last five games since their bye, the Jets have a POA allowed of +9.1 PPG to DSTs. This implies one of the safest floors you could ask for against the Jets, as simply scoring 9.1 raw fantasy points is a solid day for a DST. But the Jets are allowing teams to score 9.1 points above their average. There are not many DSTs I would not start against the Jets, and the Falcons being just north of mediocre sets up for a solid day for this unit.
There’s only one man who can save the New York Jets offense: pic.twitter.com/b2UOJMrR27
— Kyle Yates (@KyleYNFL) November 24, 2023
Pittsburgh Steelers DST vs. ARI
Yahoo Rostership%: 88%
Vegas Odds: PIT favored by 5.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 39.5
Implied points against: 17
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 16th
The Steelers maintain their approximately weekly status as a Tier 2 DST with a home matchup against the Cardinals. The Cardinals are a team I considered moving up in the rankings now that Kyler Murray is back under center, but Murray has not looked fantastic since his return, averaging only 5.7 yards per pass attempt, a negative EPA per drop back, and a negative CPOE (completion rate over expected) against the Rams in Week 12. The Steelers’ defense boasts a Top 10 pressure rate, 30+ total sacks, and is tied for third in the NFL with 12 interceptions.
Week 12 was the Steelers’ first double-digit fantasy day since Week 5, but they are preparing to have their All-Pro safety, Minkah Fitzpatrick, back from injury in Week 13. Fitzpatrick has missed the last four games with a hamstring injury and is a centerpiece of this defense alongside T.J. Watt.
Kansas City Chiefs DST @GB
Yahoo Rostership%: 91%
Vegas Odds: KC favored by 6.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 42.5
Implied points against: 18
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 11th
The Chiefs disappointed in Week 12 against the Raiders, registering only one sack, and forcing zero turnovers. They held the Raiders to only 13 points, which is worth four standard fantasy points in most leagues, but by itself does not equate to a satisfactory fantasy day for the unit I had ranked at the top of the heap. I am by no means cutting bait on a DST I have been sitting on for weeks based on one low fantasy score. But I have the Chiefs lower this week because the Packers are a more difficult DST matchup, ranking as the 11th-toughest in adjusted fantasy points allowed.
The Chiefs lead the NFL in pressure rate and their 37 total sacks are the third-highest in the league. And although Jordan Love was able to avoid being sacked in Week 12, he has been sacked 12 times in the last five games. Before their one-sack day in Week 12, the Chiefs had averaged 4.8 sacks per game in the four previous outings, and they should be able to accumulate multiple sacks and a few turnovers against the Packers.
Entering tonight's game, Chiefs D ranked:
* 3rd in Points/play
* 4th in EPA/play
* 4th in 1st downs/game
* 5th in Yards/play
* 5th in Success rate https://t.co/gdGJCCfY6m— Matthew Betz (@TheFantasyPT) November 21, 2023
Jacksonville Jaguars DST vs. CIN
Yahoo Rostership%: 33%
Vegas Odds: JAX favored by 7.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 38.5
Implied points against: 15.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 30th
The Jaguars are an intriguing DST streamer in Week 12 at home against the Bengals. In recent weeks it has been the New York teams with the lowest implied totals, but in Week 13 that status goes to the Bengals. Already one of the lower over-under point totals on the week (38.5), the Bengals implied total is only 15.5 points. The Jaguars are 7.5-point home favorites against one of many NFL teams relying on a backup due to an injury to the starter.
The Jaguars’ DST has only averaged four PPG since their Week 9 bye, but they have some momentum coming off a huge road win against the Texans. They return home with a two-game lead over both the Texans and Colts in the AFC South and should be able to take advantage of an inexperienced Jake Browning as big home favorites.
#Jaguars defense against Houston today by drive.
PUNT
PUNT
PUNT
TOUCHDOWN
MISSED FG
TOUCHDOWN
PUNT
TURNOVER ON DOWNS
TOUCHDOWN
MISSED FGThey obviously weren’t perfect but you really can’t ask for much more against an offense that can be so dangerous.
🫡🫡🫡
— JC (@JC_DTWP) November 26, 2023
Los Angeles Rams DST vs. CLE
Yahoo Rostership%: 15%
Vegas Odds: LAR favored by 4.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 39.5
Implied points against: 17.5
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 27th
The Rams are quickly becoming one of my favorite rest-of-season DST streamers. Like the Jaguars, the Rams also get a home game against a struggling offense relying on a backup QB. In two games since Deshaun Watson went on season-ending IR, the Browns offense has averaged only 12.5 points per game and has cycled through two backup QBs in Dorian Thompson-Robinson and PJ Walker. Thompson-Robinson has gotten the last two starts, but he left Week 12 early with a concussion. It is not known which QB will start in Week 13, but it was a brutal (and penalized) hit that knocked the rookie QB out of the game so he is at best questionable to suit up against the Rams.
The Rams are at home as a decent favorite with an implied points against of 17.5, one of the lowest of the week. The Browns have a POA allowed of +3.0 PPG over the last three games (two without Watson) and are currently one of the better DST matchups, ranked as the sixth-most favorable opponent. The Rams are a top streamer in Week 13.
The defense ATE. 🍴 pic.twitter.com/S1GCfMPM7f
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) November 27, 2023
Tier 3 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
New York Jets DST vs. ATL
Yahoo Rostership%: 68%
Vegas Odds: ATL favored by 3
Over/Under (Total Points): 34.5
Implied points against: 18.8
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 22nd
The Jets are a difficult team to rank because it’s tough to avoid being distracted by how awful their offense is. And before their 13-point effort against the Dolphins in Week 12, they had averaged under six PPG over their last four games. They scored eight fantasy points against the Giants and Raiders in that span, which is a decent floor but disappointing for those matchups with a defense as good as the Jets.
The Falcons have been a positive matchup for DSTs, with a positive season-long POA allowed. But, over their last five games, their POA allowed is -1.2 PPG. This game has the lowest over-under of the week (you don’t see over-under totals below 35 very often) and I think that is also being influenced by the Falcons’ likely game plan. The Falcons like to run the ball, that much is obvious. The Jets are easily the worst matchup for opposing passing games, but they have been beatable on the ground. With the Falcons likely holding the Jets offense to a few crumbs, they might have 45 rush attempts in this game. The Jets DST may get some points from the points-allowed scoring method, but I do not see a lot of opportunities for sacks and turnovers with how run-heavy the Falcons will likely be.
San Francisco 49ers DST @PHI
Yahoo Rostership%: 98%
Vegas Odds: SF favored by 2.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 46.5
Implied points against: 22
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 4th
The 49ers are back to a position of being an automatic Top 5 DST every week, except in road matchups like this. The 49ers are a road favorite in this crucial NFC showdown, but the Eagles have been the fourth-toughest matchup for DSTs, and, even as good as they’ve been, I don’t see them shutting down this Eagles team at home. But as you can see I still have them in my Top 10, and I was wrong about ranking the Ravens too low (and behind some popular streamers) last week due to the matchup. My take on the 49ers in Week 13 is if I roster them I am likely starting them, unless I have a wide-open bench spot to pick up the Falcons, Jaguars, or Rams.
It’s #1 49ers offense vs #17 Eagles defense
and
#6 Eagles offense vs #8 49ers defense (which has been playing like the #1 unit again).
That’s why the 49ers are road favorites https://t.co/9FdV33s0nS
— David Lombardi (@LombardiHimself) November 27, 2023
Cleveland Browns DST @LAR
Yahoo Rostership%: 92%
Vegas Odds: LAR favored by 4.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 39.5
Implied points against: 22
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 12th
I began my rankings for Week 13 with the Browns ranked higher but I gradually moved them down into Tier 3. This matchup looked a lot better when forecasting look-ahead schedules a month ago, but the Rams are no longer a positive matchup for DSTs. And it is not because of Cooper Kupp. It’s because of Kyren Williams. Even the Browns’ rigid run defense would not be scaring me off of starting Williams at this point, and I don’t see the Browns having one of their better days as a road underdog against a scorching hot Rams team who find themselves back in the NFC playoff hunt. The Browns have a really good defense, so this call could easily come back to bite me if the inaccurate, turnover-happy Matthew Stafford shows up. But I would rather start any of the previously-mentioned streamers over the Browns this week.
Los Angeles Chargers DST @NE
Yahoo Rostership%: 15%
Vegas Odds: LAC favored by 6
Over/Under (Total Points): 40.5
Implied points against: 17.3
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 28th
I always have a tough time putting the Chargers anywhere in the top three tiers. But with a matchup against the 28th-ranked Patriots I had to sneak them into the back of Tier 3. The Chargers’ defense is not good. It’s not much more complicated than that. Hard-hitting analysis, I know. But it’s true. Outside of their 20+ fantasy point day against the Jets, the Chargers’ DST has averaged only 3.7 PPG in six games since their bye. I would not be surprised if I catch some grief for this ranking strictly due to how bad the Patriots’ offense has looked lately. And it has. That is why I have the Chargers as a borderline start in Tier 3. But I am nervous about it because the game is in New England and the Chargers just put Joey Bosa on IR with a sprained ankle.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers DST vs. CAR
Yahoo Rostership%: 31%
Vegas Odds: TB favored by 5.5
Over/Under (Total Points): 37.5
Implied points against: 16
Opponent rank vs. DSTs: 30th
The Buccaneers would be ranked higher against the third-most favorable matchup (Panthers) if I knew the injury status of LB Lavonte David and DB Jamel Dean after both missed Tampa Bay’s Week 12 game against the Colts. As of now they still hold the last slot in Tier 3 of my rankings, but I would bump them up if both of these players can suit up against the Panthers.
Tier 4 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
The Tier 4 defenses are mostly available and there are a few decent streaming options if you’re stuck. Unlike Tier 5, multiple DSTs in Tier 4 are decent plays. However, all the defenses in the previous tiers should be prioritized over these teams. My favorite Tier 4 DSTs are the Broncos, Colts, and Lions.
Tier 5 Defenses – Fantasy Football Rankings for Week 13
These are the defenses that I would not be playing in Week 13 unless you absolutely have to. These units are either going up against a top offense in the league, aren’t a good defense in general, or both. They offer low ceilings and significantly low floors that can hurt your chances of winning your fantasy matchup. Avoid all these choices entirely and try to get a defense in the top two to three tiers for Week 13.
Rest-of-Season Look-Ahead
The following charts show each fantasy defense’s remaining schedule with each opponent color-coded based on rank in adjusted fantasy points allowed to DSTs. Red and orange indicate tougher matchups while green represents easier matchups. Each opponent’s strength of schedule rank can be found on the right-hand side of each chart. The chart on the left shows the entire rest of season schedule and where that schedule ranks in difficulty. The chart on the right shows only the Fantasy Playoff schedule and where each DST’s playoff schedule ranks in difficulty. This is where you can strategize based on where you fall in the playoff seeding.
This visual depiction assists with developing what I like to call a DST Streaming Action Plan. This is also something I’ll be updating or adding to each week where I present potential action plans for DST streamers over multiple future weeks. Of course, a lot can change (and quickly) in the NFL, but I am constantly utilizing this look-ahead “puzzle piece” strategy so I want to share it with you. Unless otherwise noted, this will feature DST options that are below a 50% rostership during the current week.
The Rams are one of the better DSTs to acquire right now. They are widely available and have a great matchup against the Browns in Week 13. But they also have the second-easiest rest-of-season schedule and the most favorable playoff schedule. There is one game in Baltimore (Week 14) for which you likely want to find a different option, but as far as readily available DSTs are concerned, the Rams are a great option. The Texans are another available DST with a solid look-ahead schedule. After their matchup with the eighth-ranked Broncos in Week 13, they face the Titans twice, the Jets, and the Browns.
I like to look four to five weeks ahead when strategizing these action plans. We are now far enough into the season that we can look at an action plan through the Fantasy Playoffs. Looking at Weeks 13-17, here are potential pieces and weekly options for a DST Streaming Action Plan. If you have made the playoffs and Weeks 13 and 14 do not matter, look to acquire your DST (or pair of DSTs) for the playoffs now. It is the same if you have already secured a first-round bye. If that is the case, look only at the options in Weeks 16 and 17. For instance, the Broncos are almost a Tier 3 DST in Week 13, but a road matchup against the Texans pushes them into Tier 4. However, they have one of the better Week 16 matchups against the hapless Patriots, so if you have that elusive bye, consider stashing them now.
- Week 13: Falcons (@NYJ), Jaguars (vs. CIN), Rams (vs. CLE), Chargers (@NE).
- Week 14: Lions (@CHI), Vikings (@LV), Jaguars (@CLE), Colts (@CIN), Packers (@NYG), Texans (@NYJ).
- Week 15: Saints (vs. NYG), Rams (vs. WAS), Falcons (@CAR).
- Week 16: Broncos (vs. NE), Jets (vs. WAS), Packers (@CAR), Texans (vs. CLE), Rams (vs. Saints).
- Week 17: Jets (@CLE), Jaguars (vs. CAR), Colts (vs. LV), Texans (vs. TEN), Rams (@NYG), Falcons (@CHI).
Full D/ST Rankings for Week 13
In addition to going through each of the five DST tiers for Week 13, here is the full list of ranks for the 26 teams playing this week. The chart includes each team’s tier, Week 13 rank, Yahoo rostership, opponent, opponent rank versus the DST position, the over/under, spread, and implied points against.
If you prefer a simple grid, you can check out this chart as well:
| DST | Tier | Rank | Ros. | Opp. | Opp. Rank | Over/ Under | Spread | Imp. Pts. Against |
| Dolphins DST | 1 | 1 | 89% | @WAS | 29 | 49.5 | -9.5 | 20.0 |
| Cowboys DST | 1 | 2 | 100% | SEA | 18 | 46.5 | -8.5 | 19.0 |
| Falcons DST | 2 | 3 | 10% | @NYJ | 32 | 34.5 | -3.0 | 15.8 |
| Steelers DST | 2 | 4 | 88% | ARI | 24 | 39.5 | -5.5 | 17.0 |
| Chiefs DST | 2 | 5 | 91% | @GB | 11 | 42.5 | -6.5 | 18.0 |
| Jaguars DST | 2 | 6 | 33% | CIN | 20 | 38.5 | -7.5 | 15.5 |
| Rams DST | 2 | 7 | 7% | CLE | 27 | 39.5 | -4.5 | 17.5 |
| Jets DST | 3 | 8 | 68% | ATL | 22 | 34.5 | 3.0 | 18.8 |
| 49ers DST | 3 | 9 | 98% | @PHI | 4 | 46.5 | -2.5 | 22.0 |
| Browns DST | 3 | 10 | 92% | @LAR | 12 | 39.5 | 4.5 | 22.0 |
| Chargers DST | 3 | 11 | 15% | @NE | 28 | 40.5 | -6.0 | 17.3 |
| Buccaneers DST | 3 | 12 | 31% | CAR | 30 | 37.5 | -5.5 | 16.0 |
| Broncos DST | 4 | 13 | 55% | @HOU | 6 | 46.5 | 3.5 | 25.0 |
| Colts DST | 4 | 14 | 13% | @TEN | 23 | 42.5 | -2.0 | 20.3 |
| Lions DST | 4 | 15 | 54% | @NO | 21 | 45.5 | -4.5 | 20.5 |
| Packers DST | 4 | 16 | 15% | KC | 9 | 42.5 | 6.5 | 24.5 |
| Texans DST | 4 | 17 | 13% | DEN | 8 | 46.5 | -3.5 | 21.5 |
| Saints DST | 4 | 18 | 49% | DET | 16 | 45.5 | 4.5 | 25.0 |
| Eagles DST | 4 | 19 | 75% | SF | 1 | 46.5 | 2.5 | 24.5 |
| Bengals DST | 4 | 20 | 33% | @JAX | 14 | 38.5 | 7.5 | 23.0 |
| Titans DST | 5 | 21 | 39% | IND | 15 | 42.5 | 2.0 | 22.3 |
| Seahawks DST | 5 | 22 | 31% | @DAL | 2 | 46.5 | 8.5 | 27.5 |
| Patriots DST | 5 | 23 | 44% | LAC | 7 | 40.5 | 6.0 | 23.3 |
| Cardinals DST | 5 | 24 | 1% | @PIT | 13 | 39.5 | 5.5 | 22.5 |
| Panthers DST | 5 | 25 | 5% | @TB | 17 | 37.5 | 5.5 | 21.5 |
| Commanders DST | 5 | 26 | 28% | MIA | 10 | 49.5 | 9.5 | 29.5 |
Thank you so much for reading! I love diving deep into the data in search of statistics and combinations of statistics that can help you make the best decisions possible in the maze of fantasy football decisions. If you have any questions about this article or general questions about fantasy football, reach out to me on X (@MunderDifflinFF).
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