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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 7/20/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
We have a solid 10-game MLB schedule on tap this Thursday, July 20 slate! Today's action is spread out throughout the afternoon and evening as we'll target some evening plays in this piece!
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Feel free to give me a follow on Twitter @BKemp17 with any questions or comments or plain ol' baseball talk! Now, let's dive into Thursday's free MLB betting picks and see if we can pad those bankrolls!
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHC (-125)
STL: Steven Matz | CHC: Marcus Stroman
It's an NL Central duel at Wrigley Field on Thursday as the St. Louis Cardinals take on the hometown Chicago Cubs. We have a veteran pitching matchup on tap with one pitcher in particular due for some negative regression moving forward.
For the visiting Cardinals, it's left-hander Steven Matz getting the ball as he carries a 4.86 ERA into action across 20 appearances, 12 of which have been starts. However, Matz also sports a 4.31 FIP, 3.93 xFIP, and 4.21 SIERA which all suggest he should see improved results in the season's second half. Matz also sports a 3.61 FIP on the road, a figure far superior to his 6.03 road ERA.
It's Marcus Stroman getting the ball for the Cubs in this one and the right-hander has dazzled his way to a 2.88 ERA on the season across 20 starts. However, Stroman also sports a 4.08 SIERA and an increased 8.8% walk rate on the season. His 12.4% K-BB% is his worst mark since 2018 while his 8.3% HR/FB clip is well below his 13.1% career mark. He should see home run regression in the coming months.
While the Cubs have hit left-handed pitching well, the Cardinals actually sit sixth with a .332 wOBA against righties. Despite their tough season, they have quietly raked against right-handed pitching.
With Matz likely to improve moving forward -- especially on the road -- and Stroman due to regress negatively, let's see if the Cardinals can deliver on some valuable moneyline odds and pick up the road win tonight at Wrigley.
Pick: Cardinals moneyline (+105, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: HOU: (-195)
HOU: J.P. France| OAK: Hogan Harris
It's another divisional contest tonight in Oakland as a couple of AL West foes get together in the form of the Houston Astros and Oakland A's.
The Astros will send rookie right-hander J.P. France to the mound as he makes his 13th start of the season. France has turned in a tidy 3.31 ERA on the season but his peripherals spell serious regression on the horizon. France also sports a 4.65 FIP, 4.80 SIERA, and a tiny 9.8% K-BB% across his 70 2/3 innings of work. He was even due to regress in the minors as his 2.33 ERA was miles below his 4.65 xFIP, albeit in a 19 1/3-inning sample size.
Another rookie in Hogan Harris gets the ball for the A's in this one. Harris has been roughed up for a 6.51 ERA in 10 appearances (four starts) in the big leagues this season, but at least his 4.85 FIP and 4.93 SIERA are more palatable, albeit unspectacular as well. Walks have been an issue for the 26-year-old, as per his 10.6% BB%, while he has a minor-league track record of issuing far too many free passes.
This one appears to have the makings of a high-scoring affair. While neither offense sits in the top half of the league versus right-handed pitching, neither of these starting pitchers is worth backing. Neither starter misses many bats while we should see a good chunk of free passes tonight.
We have a reasonable total on the board for this one tonight, so let's grab the over 8.5 total runs and look for plenty of runs this evening in Oakland.
Pick: Over 8.5 total runs (-110, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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