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Brenton Kemp's top MLB betting picks and best bets for today's MLB games on 08/17/23. His free picks against the spread, game totals, and other baseball bets.
It's Thursday, and yes, we have a shorter MLB slate than usual. In fact, there's just six games to comb through today, beginning with the Mariners and Royals at 2:10 pm ET and finishing with the Dodgers and Brewers some eight hours later. Nonetheless, it's time to dive into today's action and ensure we take advantage of the value that presents itself.
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: DET (-135)
DET: Tarik Skubal | CLE: Xzavion Curry
It's an AL Central tilt tonight in Cleveland as the Detroit Tigers pay a visit to the Cleveland Guardians with the former looking to play spoiler in the latter's attempt to qualify for the postseason.
It's left-hander Tarik Skubal getting the ball for the road side in this one and it appears he could be the club's ace moving forward. The 26-year-old enters this one sporting a 4.18 ERA on the season but a quick peek under the hood reveals he has been much better than that. Skubal also sports a 2.09 FIP, 2.90 xFIP, and a 3.14 SIERA. Additionally, he has upped his ground-ball rate to 54.7% in his seven starts while his 23.1% K-BB% is on pace to blow by his previous career-high of 19.4% set in his rookie 2020 season.
As for the Guardians, right-hander Xzavion Curry gets the ball for his sixth start and 31st appearance on the season. The 25-year-old owns a 3.39 ERA in his 69 frames on the season but he has also worked to a 4.31 FIP and 5.00 SIERA while his 9.5% K-BB% leaves plenty to be desired. Furthermore, Curry has posted a 3.06 ERA in 50 innings as a reliever this season but has seen his ERA rise to 4.26 as a starter.
He won't get overly deep into this one as he has maxed out at five innings pitched in a start this season as he's done so in each of his last two outings.
Looking at the bats between the two clubs, there isn't much of a difference. The Tigers have predictably scuffled against right-handed pitching as their .294 wOBA off righties sits 28th in the league but the Guardians sit dead last in baseball with a .284 wOBA versus left-handed pitching. It's safe to call the offensive matchup a wash tonight in Cleveland.
One area where the Guardians do hold an advantage is in the bullpen. Their 3.57 bullpen ERA sits fifth in baseball while their 3.96 FIP sits ninth. However, the Tigers' relievers have been far from terrible as their 4.10 bullpen ERA sits 18th while their identical 4.10 FIP sits 12th. Skubal hasn't gone deep into games this season due to flexor tendon surgery last summer that has limited him to seven starts this season, so the bullpens will likely play a meaningful role in this one.
Let's go with separate, dual bets on this one. The Guardians should have a tough time getting to Skubal while it certainly appears Curry is due to see some regression moving forward. Look for the Tigers to win this outright while claiming victory in the first five innings.
Picks: Tigers F5 (-140, DraftKings sportsbook) Tigers moneyline (-135, DraftKings sportsbook)
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Milwaukee Brewers vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: LAD (-148)
MIL: Corbin Burnes| LAD: Lance Lynn
A couple of playoff contenders get together tonight in California as the L.A. Dodgers play host to the Milwaukee Brewers.
The Brewers will hand the ball to ace Corbin Burnes who has endured a down season by his lofty standards. The right-hander sports a 3.60 ERA in 24 starts on the season while watching his K-BB% dip to 15.7%, a stark contrast to his 23.3% career mark. He also owns a 3.93 FIP and 4.17 SIERA, although he has been better on the road where he owns a 3.35 ERA and 3.62 FIP on the season while keeping the opposition to a measly .191 batting average.
As for the Dodgers, they will trot out veteran Lance Lynn who they acquired prior to the Aug. 1 MLB trade deadline. Lynn has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball this season if we look at his 5.88 ERA versus his 3.83 SIERA. His walk rate has spiked to 8.1% from just 3.7% last season but his K-BB% is still 19.3%, not a whole lot below his 20.5% mark from a season ago.
He has seen his positive regression kick in as a member of the Dodgers as he has tossed 18 innings of three-run ball with 22 strikeouts versus just four walks in three starts with Los Angeles.
The Dodgers have been one of the best offenses in baseball against right-handed pitching this season as per their .339 wOBA that sits third in the big leagues off righties. On the flip side, the Brewers' .301 wOBA off righties is tied with the Royals for 25th. Needless to say, we have a substantial difference at the plate in this one.
The bullpens likely won't play as big of a role in this ball game as they will in the Tigers/Guardians contest and the difference between the two groups is negligible. The Dodgers sit 14th with a 4.00 ERA from their relief corps while the Brewers check in at 10th with a 3.89 ERA.
As we did above, let's toss out a couple of plays in this one too. Lynn has been dynamite with the Dodgers and while he's been better on the road than at home, Burnes isn't dialed in this season. However, he remains capable of keeping a quality Dodgers offense more or less in check while Lynn should be able to take care of a subpar Brewers offense.
Add it up and a low-scoring Dodgers victory should be in order this evening.
Picks: Dodgers moneyline (-148, DraftKings sportsbook) Under 8.5 (-112, DraftKings sportsbook)
Good luck, folks!
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