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John's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings and Thursday Night Football - the Patriots vs Falcons showdown slate. His Week 11 TNF daily fantasy football advice.
Happy Thursday, RotoBallers! Week 11 is here! This season has been going by super quickly, but truthfully I've been having a ton of success as well as a ton of fun. We have a rather interesting matchup tonight as the Patriots (6-4) head down to Atlanta to take on the Falcons (4-5). Both teams are fighting for Wild Card spots as we get late into the season, so I hope this will be a good one. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket.
In this article I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Thursday Night Football slate on November 18th. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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DFS Captains/MVPs
Mac Jones ($15,900 DK, $16,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,333 yards, 13 touchdowns, seven interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 18.5% (15th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 27.7% (30th)
Mac Jones has been developing into a very good quarterback as the true successor to Tom Brady. He's been rather up and down from a fantasy perspective as the Patriots run the ball quite a bit, but this matchup with the Falcons is just too good. I think the Patriots go up early by moving the ball in the air before grinding out the rest of the game in the run, so there should be enough time for Mac to hit value.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Jakobi Meyers, Kyle Pitts
Kyle Pitts ($14,400 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 64 targets, 40 receptions, 606 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 73.01% snap rate, 19.69% target rate, 19.57% red-zone target rate, four end zone targets.
- Opposing DVOA vs TE: -50.3% (1st)
- Individual Matchup (vs Adrian Phillips): 8% target per route covered, 58% catch rate, 0.13 fantasy points per route.
Sometimes you have to ignore the matchup and go with your gut. I certainly lean GPP on this play due to the poor matchup, but if you're looking to pay down from one of the quarterbacks, Pitts is the guy to go with. He's seeing 7-8 targets per game, and with Calvin Ridley out of the lineup for the foreseeable future, Pitts along with Cordarelle Patterson are the top targets on this Falcons team.
Recommendation: GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Matt Ryan, Mac Jones
Other Captain/MVP Plays: Jakobi Meyers, Damien Harris
DFS Flex Plays
Matt Ryan ($10,800 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,274 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, eight interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 4.5% (23rd)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: -13.3% (5th)
I'll start by saying that I'll likely be much heavier on the Patriots side of things tonight, but Matt Ryan is worth playing, especially on FanDuel. I think the most likely game script is that Atlanta goes down early after a slow start and has to throw the ball a bunch to keep themselves in the game. I don't particularly like the Atlanta running backs in this matchup (but I will have shares of Wayne Gallman Jr. and Mike Davis IF Cordarelle Patterson ends up sitting). Otherwise, we'll stick to the passing game.
Recommendation: Cash (FD)
Best Correlations: Kyle Pitts, Russell Gage, Damien Harris
Jakobi Meyers ($8,000 DK, $13,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 76 targets, 50 receptions, 483 receiving yards, one touchdown.
- 2021 Data: 86.62% snap rate, 23.46% target rate, 17.39% red zone target rate, two end zone targets
- Opposing DVOA vs WR1: 21.5% (26th)
- Individual Matchup (vs Avery Williams): 19% target per route covered, 77% catch rate, 0.37 fantasy points per route.
Jakobi Meyers finally scoring a touchdown was awesome to see, and now he'll look to get another tonight. He has the strongest matchup of the night in my estimation, as the Falcons struggle to slow down the passing game. My concern with Meyers is that his target share has slowly been decreasing with the emergence of Kendrick Bourne, but due to Meyers's matchup, I rate him slightly higher than Bourne tonight.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Mac Jones, Matt Ryan, Kyle Pitts
Other Flex Plays: Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry, Russell Gage
DFS Value Plays
Patriots D/ST ($5,600 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 177 points allowed, 24 sacks, 14 interceptions, three fumble recoveries, two defensive touchdowns
- Defensive DVOA: -13.6% (5th)
- Opposing Offense DVOA: -17.4% (25th)
This one's pretty simple, a horrible offense that will be missing at least one (if not two) of their best playmakers against a defense that is averaging over a turnover per game. While the Patriots only average 2.4 sacks per game, they should be able to put a ton of pressure on Matt Ryan and force mistakes. The Falcons just got the doors blown off of them by Dallas and their defense, and we could see something similar tonight on a short week.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Damien Harris, Rhamondre Stevenson
Younghoe Koo ($4,000 DK, $9,500 FD)
If the Falcons do end up moving the ball down the field a bit, you'd have to think that Bill Belicheck will tighten things up on their defensive side of the field and force Atlanta to kick field goals. Koo is a great piece for a Patriots onslaught lineup and should be able to knock down one or two field goals and hit his value.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Mac Jones, Patriots D/ST
Other Value Plays: Nelson Agholor, Olamide Zaccheaus
Overall Slate Note
There's a decent amount of consolidation in these offenses, more so on the Atlanta side than New England's. Bill Belicheck and Josh McDaniels love to spread the ball around to a lot of their different weapons, while we can reasonably expect the Falcons to run their offense through Pitts and their running backs (including Patterson if he plays). Patterson's status will be the big news to follow up to lock, but I'll be spreading out my ownership across all of the guys I've mentioned. Like I mentioned earlier, I will be heavier on the Pats' side, but I likely won't be super heavy on anyone in particular. Good luck!
Have a good Thursday everyone, see you soon!
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