Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 7 - Kyren Williams, Bucky Irving, Woody Marks, more

October 24, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 7 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

Welcome back to another edition of my RB matchups and another very interesting DFS main slate. We don't have my top matchup on the slate (Pittsburgh) because they are in France playing the early Sunday morning game, while both Rhamondre Stevenson and D'Andre Swift both already played on Thursday night (and had good games, too).

I am going to do what I did last week and address the three running backs who are projected to be the most highly rostered on Sunday first, and I am giving you my FOUR favorite pivots as we have a very strong group of runners to choose from this week (check out the chart!)

Also, don't forget this analysis and the data I collect can be applied to prop betting, too! I do betting picks every week, and you'll definitely find some of these players in my betting content as well. Alright, let's get into the matchups already!

Week 7 Running Back Matchups

Back for Week 7, these are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both PFF and the DVOA ratings found at FTN. We now have SIX weeks of data, and larger sample sizes always help our data become more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, their offensive schemes, projected role and usage, quality of their opponent, and then finally taking an educated guess on the projected game script for each back this week.

The Big 3 Chalk Backs

• Jahmyr Gibbs ($9.8K DK, $9.8K FD)
• Bijan Robinson ($8.5K DK, $9.4K FD)
• Christian McCaffrey ($7.6K DK, $8.7K FD)

CMC projects as the most highly-rostered back on DK, where his pass-catching abilities are rewarded the most in PPR scoring, and he's considerably cheaper than the other two "matchup-proof bell cows." With the Niners down Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel this week, CMC's receptions prop has moved to 5.5 this week after he caught nine passes last week. We aren't fading that floor at this price.

Gibbs is priced absurdly high, but also has the third-best rating in my model, and the Lions-Packers game should easily be the best game environment with a 53.5-point total. I am not sure how we cram him and CMC into cash builds unless Puka Nacua ends up being out, but we will have to cross that bridge tomorrow morning.

Robinson offers a similar ceiling as Gibbs at a reduced cost, but we know the floor is substantially lower. We found that out the hard way last week when the Falcons offense struggled, and he finished with only 11 touches. He has two busts now this season, and being attached to shaky quarterback play continues to negatively affect him when the Falcons have to play from behind.

Kyren Williams ($7,000 DK, $7,900 FD) 

L.A. Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders

This feels like a really good week to jump on Kyren as a pivot play. He's still going to be rostered plenty, but the gap in rostership between him and the big three seems substantial, and the Rams have the best rating in my model of any team on the main slate.

The Rams were a big letdown last week, and Williams had his worst game of the season, managing only 50 yards rushing, 17 yards receiving, and no touchdowns. Just when it felt like he had shed the Blake Corum timeshare, Corum popped back up for 45% of the carries and went 9-42-1 to outperform him.

But this is a great spot for the Rams offense as they're implied for 26.5 points on the road in Vegas. We saw James Cook III smash in this matchup last week (as we predicted he would), and the Raiders still rank just 30th in rushing defense (DVOA). They're also dead last in yards allowed before contact at 1.89 and 31st in explosive run rate at 13.2%.

Williams is a serious receiving threat out of the backfield, averaging 6.5 targets per game, and is still getting the majority of carries inside the 10-yard line (78.6%). It all points to a big week for Williams, and if Nacua can't go Sunday, then I think it increases Williams' role even more.

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Bucky Irving ($6,100 DK, $7,200 FD)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

The only thing holding back Bucky's rating in my model is the Tampa offensive line's run-blocking grade, but it's not enough to exclude him from our list this week.

Irving came back to Earth last week with just 19-46 on the ground against Pittsburgh after going nuclear against the Cowboys in Week 5. The good news is that he handled 19 carries and saw another three targets as a receiver, maintaining his stranglehold on the RB1 job with Kenny Gainwell mixing in only occasionally.

Bucky Irving out and running!

@TBvsDAL on Prime Video
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/tLym5RtEYd

— NFL (@NFL) October 9, 2026

This matchup is tough to project, as the Panthers' run defense has been significantly better lately, and a terrible Week 1 performance against the Bears is still holding down their metrics. Here is what I do like, though.

The game has a 44.5-point total, which is pretty average, really, but in a week where we have some real snoozers (IND-MIN at 42, MIA-NYJ at 39.5, CLE-TEN at 37.5), this one looks like a damn shootout. It's also expected to be a close game with the Panthers only 2.5-point home favorites.

Bucky gets his QB1 back with Baker under center, and with Emeka Egbuka out, he'll likely be leaned on heavily as both a runner and a receiver. He's a really good back, and I think the Panthers' defense, at best, is adequate. But not a unit that we have to fear or fade an opposing running back against.

Woody Marks ($5,600 DK, $6,200 FD)

Houston Texans vs. New York Giants

This is one of the worst-rated spots that I think I've featured all season. For some context, Houston's matchup rating of 50.8 suggests that this is barely better than a neutral matchup, and it's closer to the bottom of the list than the top.

However, additional context here is also really important. Marks is very cheap on both sites and set for his first full game with a bell cow role as David Montgomery is out. He has only Dare Ogunbowale and Deuce Vaughn behind him on the depth chart, so 20+ touches in what could be a fantastic game script (Texans are 10-point home favorites).

Marks has been a really good receiver out of the backfield in his limited NFL experience, and that aspect of his game will be featured this week, especially if Houston's offensive line struggles to open up holes in the run game.

Woody Marks is wide open and gets the @HoustonTexans just inside field goal range...

HOUvsJAX on NFL Network
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/kIkn1kIptN

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026

Marks was already outplaying Montgomery before the injury, and now he'll have a chance to showcase his ability and perhaps lock up the starting job full time. Again, the spot is pretty mediocre in terms of the matchup, but the price, projected game script, his versatility as a pass-catcher, and the projected heavy usage make him a really appealing play.

Aaron Jones Sr. ($6,200 DK, $5,900 FD)

Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts

Here's where I am going way off the beaten path. Jones is projected at sub-5% rostership on both sites. It makes some sense, as the Vikings are getting their early-down ramrod, Jordan Mason, back this week. Jones has been carrying the load for the last month and could use a break, especially with the amount of wear and tear on his 31-year-old frame.

So we certainly can't project him for the 20+ touches that he's seen in the last four games. But are we entirely sure that Mason is walking back into an RB1 role, too? Which back is going to get the high-value touches (receptions and goal-line carries) that are so crucial?

Jones has been really good this year and is a big reason why this offense has continued to be successful despite the injuries to key players

The Vikings are coming off a bye, so Jones should be rested, and I look for him to handle around 50% of the carries, plus get the majority of the passing work. This matchup is really good, as the Colts are 32nd in EPA allowed per rushing attempt, and they're 28th in DVOA defense vs. running backs as receivers.

Remember when Jaylen Warren caught six passes for 87 yards and a touchdown two weeks ago, or when Kenneth Walker III went 6-61 as a receiver in Week 2? I do.

They're also 31st in yards allowed after contact at 2.69. That suggests that they have been poor tacklers, and increases the chances of the Minnesota backs breaking off some big plays. It's only a deep-field GPP type play, but is it too crazy to think Jones could still have a big day for the Vikings even on few total touches? This Colts defense is BAD.

Good luck, everyone - and thanks for reading.

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