NFL Betting Picks: Player Props for Novig (Week 7)

October 22, 2026

Thunder Dan Palyo offers his top NFL sports predictions for Novig markets in Week 7 on the 2026-2027 season. Use his recommended picks to win on Novig.

Props, props, props - that's what I hear when the iconic 2009 song "Shots" by Lil Jon comes on. Because I can't get enough props (and at my age now, I can surely get far too many shots). If you love prop bets and have even the slightest bit of nostalgia for early 2000s popular rap music, then I suppose you're in the right place!

If you're new here, I'd like to introduce you to one of the most unique and fastest-growing sports prediction sites - Novig. If you're not familiar with the site, I'll explain how it works and provide some of my favorite wagers to place on Novig for this weekend's games.

As always, follow RotoBaller on X and download the RotoBaller app for all your fantasy football and betting needs.  Now here are some of my favorite NFL bets and player props for Week 7 on Novig!

What is Novig?

Novig is one of the fastest-growing peer-to-peer sports prediction markets. On Novig, users trade directly with each other without the "vig" that is associated with a typical sportsbook.

The vig represents the money that sportsbooks charge you to use their service. It's a hidden cost that can be found in the odds that are being offered on each side of a specific bet. When a book offers -110 odds on both sides of a bet, they're keeping close to 10% of every bettor's wager, regardless of whether you win or lose.

On Novig, users trade with each other on the outcomes of sporting events, similarly to the way that investors trade on the stock market. But instead of having to beat the books, you just have to win against other users - there's no commission kept by the site.

Users can bet on most traditional sports markets, including moneyline bets, spreads, totals, player props, parlays, and futures! No politics, no betting on wars...just sports!

NFL Passing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Brock Purdy OVER 240.5 passing yards (53%)

Is there anyone who can slow down the league's best passing offense? Atlanta's passing defense rates somewhere in the middle of the pack, but the real issue here is that their run defense has been good enough to slow down opposing rushing attacks and force them into a more pass-heavy approach on offense.

We saw a perfect example last week when the Falcons held D'Andre Swift under 50 yards rushing, but allowed Caleb Williams to throw for 305 yards and complete 30 of 35 pass attempts. That was the fourth time in six games that this defense allowed a 250-yard passer this year.

#49ers QB Brock Purdy now has the highest career passer rating in NFL history among QBs with at least 1,500 attempts:

1) Brock Purdy: 105.4
2) Lamar Jackson: 102.7
3) Aaron Rodgers: 101.8

The final pick in the NFL Draft. Alone on top. https://t.co/enzvVkPUN0

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) October 20, 2026

So while the Niners want to run, they won't hesitate to throw it, and Purdy is more than capable of utilizing the healthy receivers he has, plus George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey. He cruised over this number last week with 264 pass yards against the Commanders on only 29 attempts. I think we'll see him go for 250 or more again, and I'm happy to keep backing him and the extremely efficient Niners passing game.

Geno Smith OVER 1.5 passing touchdowns (44%)

Smith has only accomplished this feat once this season when he tossed three touchdowns against the Lions in Week 3. However, the matchup for Smith could not be better as the Dolphins come in with the 31st-ranked pass defense and have allowed five of seven opposing quarterbacks to throw for two touchdowns or more.

You don't have to be in love with the Jets' passing attack to like this bet. If we think they're going to score 3-4 touchdowns this week, then there's a pretty good chance that Smith can account for two of those through the air, and the odds on this bet are fantastic, paying out 2.27x our initial investment.

NFL Rushing Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

 J.K. Dobbins OVER 13.5 rush attempts (55%)

Betting on rush attempts and not yardage totals or touchdowns isn't nearly as much fun, I'll admit. But the name of the game here is winning, and I'm willing to look at whatever type of prop presents us with the best edge on the books.

This number feels awfully low for Dobbins, who has gone over it in three of his last four games. In those three games, he had a 64% share of the rush attempts and handled 17, 18, and 17 carries. Those were all wins, too, with the loss to the Niners in Week 4 being the game where he went under (11).

The Broncos are 4.5-point road favorites in Arizona, and it's no secret that their quarterback Bo Nix is struggling. That's all the more reason to think that Sean Payton tries to pound the football and take some pressure off his quarterback. This Arizona run defense is improved this year (15th in DVOA), but they have allowed opposing RBs to rack up 15 or more carries in four of their six games.

If we can project a game script where the Broncos are leading, then I think we'll see this trend continue and Dobbins will get his touches. He hasn't been as efficient this year, but we aren't concerned about that here, just the volume of touches.

Novig Promo Code and Welcome Bonus

Use code BALLER to receive $25 in trade credits when you deposit $10.

You also get a FREE YEAR of RotoBaller's "Big-4" Premium Pass (NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL), which includes exclusive tools for Betting, Props, DFS, and more!

You can claim your welcome offer to Novig right now by clicking on the image below.

NFL Receiving Prop Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown as percentages, not traditional American odds.

Jaylen Warren OVER 25.5 yards receiving (51%)

Rico Dowdle returned to the lineup last week for the Steelers. Between Dowdle stealing some carries and the Steelers facing a good Tampa run defense, Warren managed just 50 yards on the ground, which was his lowest total since Week 2 against the Patriots.

But guess what he did do? He had 28 receiving yards on two catches, going over this number for the 7th straight game!

Warren is an absolute beast as a pass-catcher, and the Steelers know it. They're going to continue to feature him as a receiver, and even ran a few plays where he lined up out in the slot, while Dowdle was in the backfield. He's just too good in space for them not to keep feeding him on short throws, and he can go over this number in one catch and run, as we've seen him do before!

Carnell Tate OVER 52.5 yards receiving (53%)

Tate had a coming-out party against the Ravens three weeks ago when he caught 9 of 12 targets for 145 yards. Then he ran into a very good Texans team the following week and fell off a cliff, catching just one pass for six yards.

But last week, we saw the potential of this rookie on display once again as he caught 6 of 7 targets for 70 yards in the Titans' first win of the season.

Carnell Tate got way up to make this catch 😳

TENvsIND on FOX/FOX One
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/9jeFa2oRTL

— NFL (@NFL) October 18, 2026

Against a Browns secondary that has allowed some big performances to wideouts lately (Metcalf 5-115, Wilson 7-104, and Flowers 6-66), I think Tate has a great chance of going over a rather low number for a WR1. He's sitting on a 30% target share this season, and Cam Ward is finally showing some signs of getting into a groove. He's a really good young player and in a high-usage role against a very beatable secondary.

Novig Tools Exclusively at RotoBaller

Check out our "No-Vig" Calculator, and you can de-vig any line you want to see what the fair odds should be!

You can also shop for the best odds on bets and props at Novig using our new Prediction Finder Tool!

Win more on every winning market position with Novig, where you will consistently get a better return on your investment than traditional sportsbooks.

Anytime Touchdown Bets

All odds listed are from Novig and shown in percentages, not traditional American odds.

Tucker Kraft Anytime Touchdown (37%)

How many times can we go back to the well with "Tight ends against Detroit" for touchdown props? Well, we are about to find out, because I am all over Tucker Kraft this week in what continues to be an elite spot for tight end production.

The Lions have been gashed by the position, allowing the most receiving TDs to opposing TEs, while also giving up rather large quantities of receiving yards. In fact, Darren Waller is the only opposing tight end who hasn't racked up 50 or more receiving yards against them while also scoring a touchdown.

Kraft has just one TD on the year, but his involvement has been increasing as he has five catches in three straight games. The Packers are getting Josh Jacobs back this week, but their best bet to move the football is still going to be through the air against this Detroit secondary.

Good luck if you're tailing these props this week. Thanks for reading. Let's crush!

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