RADIO
Start: Jake Ferguson, TE - Dallas Cowboys
This season, Carolina is allowing 16.82 fantasy points per game to the position, which is the most in the league. It has also allowed a league-high 10 touchdown receptions and the 772 receiving yards yielded is the ninth most to date.
With a week under his belt after missing the last two contests, I expect Ferguson to return to form here in Week 15, providing Cooper Rush a secondary option in the passing game behind CeeDee Lamb.
Ferguson returned to practice before the Monday night showdown after suffering a concussion a couple of weeks back. One that shook him to his core and left him with a deeper understanding of the severity of the situation. Ferguson followed every instruction provided by the specialist before his return.
Start: David Njoku, TE - Cleveland Browns
Since Jameis Winston took over under center in Week 8, Njoku is the TE5 in fantasy. Over that period, Njoku has seen a 21.2% target share, which trails only Trey McBride, Travis Kelce, Brock Bowers, and Evan Engram among his tight-end peers.
The Browns tight end is also averaging 0.23 targets per route run and has a first-read target share of 21.3% as well. In the seven-week sample, only Ja’Marr Chase has seen more than the seven end-zone targets that have gone in Njoku’s direction. With Cedric Tillman missing the last two contests, we have also seen Njoku’s target share go from 16.8% in games with both Tillman and Winston to 29.3%.
Heading into Week 14, Njoku has seen 30 targets over the last two weeks, which has equated to a 29.8% target share and a 35.1% target share. That should excite fantasy managers, considering this week’s opponent, the Kansas City Chiefs, have allowed league-highs in receptions (86) and receiving yards (1,015) to the position this season.
Start: Kyle Pitts, TE - Atlanta Falcons
This season, Pitts is averaging just 8.1 fantasy points per contest and has not had 10 fantasy points in any game since Week 8, when he had 25.1 against Tampa Bay.
That game against Tampa Bay was a favorable matchup, and so too is this week’s showdown with the Las Vegas Raiders. This season, Tampa Bay has allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to the position; however, the Raiders’ 15.87 fantasy points against is the fourth most. Las Vegas has allowed 872 yards receiving and seven scores to tight ends this season, ranking in the top three in both categories.
Over the last four weeks, the Raiders’ fantasy points per game against have jumped from under 16 to 19.70. If Pitts is just a matchup-based starter from here on out, this is a great matchup to start him again.
Sit: Evan Engram, TE - Jacksonville Jaguars
From good matchups to not-so-good matchups, Evan Engram faces a New York Jets team this week that has allowed 570 yards receiving and three touchdowns to the position this season. When you add that up, it works out to 10.23 fantasy points per game, the sixth fewest. With Mac Jones under center again this week, I am very wary of Engram’s fantasy potential.
Last week, Jonnu Smith finished with 13 fantasy points. However, all three of his receptions, including his touchdown grab, came in overtime. Engram would finish with four catches on six targets for 33 receiving yards and 7.3 fantasy points against the Titans, who are a comparable matchup to what he is likely to face this week.
With other options available for the first round of your playoffs, there are likely some better options available to fantasy managers this week.
Sit: Hunter Henry, TE - New England Patriots
The last time we saw Hunter Henry, he was coming off a seven-catch, 75-yard Week 13 performance against the Indianapolis Colts that netted fantasy managers 14 fantasy points.
Indianapolis and Arizona are on opposite ends of the fantasy spectrum when it comes to defending the tight-end position. Indianapolis’ 15.29 fantasy points against are the fifth most, while the Cardinals’ 10.25 is the seventh fewest.
In the last four weeks, Arizona has allowed 117 receiving yards and a touchdown to the tight-end position, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement for Henry.
Last week, Noah Fant found himself limited to just three receptions and 18 yards receiving against this Cardinals unit. In the previous week, it was T.J. Hockenson who fell victim to this Cardinals defense, finishing with 5.8 fantasy points after catching just three passes for 28 yards.
Sit: Cade Otton, TE - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Los Angeles held Travis Kelce to under 10 fantasy points last week, holding the All-Pro to five receptions and 45 yards. Before that Sunday Night Football contest in Week 14, Kelce had finished with 12 or more fantasy points in five of six games and averaged 16 fantasy points over that period.
That’s not making fantasy managers feel any better with the perspective of having to start Cade Otton this week after failing to produce more than nine fantasy points in three consecutive contests, including that one against the Raiders last week.
Since Mike Evans returned in Week 11, Otton’s target share is down to 15.6%, with a first-read target share of 10.4% and an average depth of target of 3.6 yards. With the dip in opportunities since Evans’ return, it’s easy to see why his fantasy points per route run has also dropped to 0.20.
It’s hard to imagine that improves this week against a Chargers defense that has been allowing a league-low 6.48 fantasy points to the tight-end position over the last four weeks.
