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After Shane van Gisbergen won at the Chicago Street Course3, expectations were sky-high for the three-time Supercars champion and he committed to a full-time switch to NASCAR's Xfinity Series for 2024. How will he perform in his first full-time NASCAR season?
After Shane van Gisbergen won at the Chicago Street Course in 2023, becoming the first driver to win his NASCAR Cup Series debut since Johnny Rutherford in 1963, expectations were sky-high for the three-time Supercars champion. He committed to a full-time switch to NASCAR for 2024, the same switch made by two-time Supercars champion Marcos Ambrose nearly two decades ago.
While still being groomed for an eventual full-time Trackhouse Racing Cup Series ride, van Gisbergen will primarily focus on competing in the Xfinity Series, where he will drive Kaulig Racing's No. 97 car full-time in 2024.
Additionally, SVG will make seven starts as part of a rotation in Kaulig's No. 16 Cup Series entry, splitting time with his Xfinity teammates AJ Allmendinger (who drove that car full-time last year) and Josh Williams. Van Gisbergen's crossover is probably the most interesting transition to NASCAR since Juan Pablo Montoya in 2007. But how will he perform?
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— Kaulig Racing (@KauligRacing) February 1, 2024
Marcos Ambrose's Career Provides Insight into SVG's Trajectory
Marcos Ambrose provides the best parallel to SVG, as he himself made the same transition, spending a year in the Craftsman Truck Series in 2006 and two years in the then-Nationwide series in 2007 and 2008 before becoming a full-time Cup Series driver in 2009.
Ambrose failed to win in the Truck Series in 2006, but there were also no road course tracks on the schedule that year, the type of which he excels at. In the Nationwide Series, Ambrose only won one of his five road course starts at Watkins Glen in 2008, but he usually only finished behind Cup Series drivers or other road racing veterans. He likely would have won at Montreal in 2007 if Robby Gordon hadn't spun him.
Shane van Gisbergen has several big advantages compared to Ambrose, though. One, there are many more road courses on the current Xfinity schedule, there are generally fewer Cup Series regulars and strong road course ringers in them.
Additionally, Kaulig Racing is at least competitive for wins while JTG-Daugherty Racing, which Ambrose raced for, had been winless for 12 years before Ambrose's win. SVG also has Bruce Schlicker as crew chief, who delivered Chandler Smith his first Xfinity win last year.
Shane van Gisbergen is Set Up For Winning in 2024
With five road and street courses on the regular season Cup Series schedule, odds are relatively high that Shane van Gisbergen will win at least one of them, especially since he can benefit from Allmendinger's setup knowledge.
However, it might not be a cakewalk since the Cup Series chassis are based on the Supercars chassis and the Xfinity cars are not. Additionally, his win at Chicago last season was greatly aided by the fact that it rained and none of his competitors had ever raced there either.
The real test for SVG in 2024 will be on the ovals. In his Craftsman Truck debut at IRP last year, he was far slower than his teammate, Carson Hocevar, and lost a lap several times.
Ambrose never entirely figured out ovals and SVG is starting his stock car career at an older age than Ambrose did. Expect him to win on a road course (possibly multiple times), but he will likely perform poorly on ovals. As long as he does get at least a road course win or two, though, that won't matter.
