RADIO
Now that we are two weeks into the 2023 NFL Season, not everything has gone as planned. Certain RBs are playing more than expected and others are underperforming, which has sent fantasy managers into a full-fledged panic.
While we don't want to overreact two weeks in, we don't want to be left holding the bag either on a tanking player or a sinking offense. Sometimes it is better to cut your losses and make a trade so someone else can deal with the problem. Other times it's better to stay patient and wait it out instead of selling low.
From Brian Robinson Jr. to James Cook, let's take stock of the current RB landscape in fantasy football.
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Brian Robinson Jr., Washington Commanders
This is a tough one! It's become quite clear that the coaching staff in Washington prefers Robinson over fellow RB Antonio Gibson, but unless the Commanders keep winning the potential negative game scripts could derail Robinson.
In Week 2 against the Broncos, the Commanders trailed 21-3 before roaring back to win the game and Robinson had a big fourth quarter with a couple of rushing touchdowns. The offense has looked better under new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, but the question is just how high can they go?
Year 2 of Brian Robinson is off to a strong start. #HTTC @BrianR_4 | @Commanders pic.twitter.com/f1Jen62C3p
— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2023
Coming up the Commanders have to play the Bills followed by the Eagles. As they played catch-up in Week 2, Robinson had a mere 5 rushes for 13 yards as they were trailing and had to pass the ball.
Despite that, it's easy to see why the coaching staff likes Robinson. He's a talented player who does everything asked of him and is a physical runner who can pick up the tough yards. He isn't on the same level as Gibson in terms of receiving ability and will likely be a matchup-dependent RB for most of the season.
Trade Index: Sell-High
Raheem Mostert, Miami Dolphins
Even though he is now 31 years old, Mostert is showing no signs of slowing down. So far on the season, he's rushed 28 times for 158 yards and 3 TDs on top of 3 receptions for 19 yards. We know that fellow RB Jeff Wilson Jr. will be eligible to return from injured reserve in Week 5 and rookie De'Von Achane looms in the background, but so far Mostert has been shining.
Raheem Mostert (@RMos_8Ball) was a BLUR on Sunday Night 💨
(by @FastTwitchDrink) pic.twitter.com/d3IavQACU4
— NFL (@NFL) September 19, 2023
Mostert worked with HC Mike McDaniel in San Francisco and knows the offensive system in and out. Miami's offense is arguably a top 3 unit for fantasy right now, so if you aren't deep at running back and need Mostert's immediate production it's better to just ride the wave. If you are in a keeper or dynasty league and may not be contending this year, now is the perfect chance to move Mostert for a good price.
At the end of the day it all comes down to your immediate team needs in fantasy, but it's hard not to like what Mostert is doing given his breakaway speed in the Dolphins high-powered offense.
Trade Index: Hold
Kyren Williams, Los Angeles Rams
This is a tough one and something nobody saw coming. Cam Akers was made inactive on Sunday afternoon against the 49ers and the reports are that he will be traded. The Rams have sent us a lot of mixed signals regarding Akers since taking him in Round 2 of the 2020 NFL Draft. Akers looked good at the end of his rookie season, then tore his Achilles in the summer of 2021, but came back for the playoffs and won a Super Bowl, then the Rams looked to trade him in 2022, couldn't find a trade partner, and then Akers closed out the 2022 season with three-straight 100+ yard rushing games, and brought all of our hopes back. Now they're looking to trade him again after he was inactive last Sunday. Quit playing games with my heart, Sean McVay. Akers career arc is the NFL's version of a country music song.
RB Kyren Williams fell in the 2022 NFL Draft after a disappointing combine.
When he was taken with pick 164, he told Rams HC Sean McVay: “You got the one, coach. I promise you.”
Now 1 year later he appears to have taken over the Rams backfield. Never stop believing. #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/mMwy2Tvsih
— Kyle Lindemann (@LuckIsMadeFF) September 18, 2023
Speaking of Kyren Williams, he had a successful college career at Notre Dame, rushing for over one thousand yards in 2021 and 2022 on top of catching 77 passes for 672 yards and 4 TDs over those two seasons. He fell on draft weekend after a poor showing at the NFL Combine when he didn't post a good forty yard dash time. Williams was drafted in Round 5 of the 2022 NFL Draft and didn't play much as a rookie after breaking his foot in training camp. Despite his long odds, Williams impressed the Rams coaching staff enough this summer and earned the RB2 job this preseason and now appears to have taken over as the starting RB1. While he isn't overly flashy, he's a versatile, all-around running back who makes the Rams offense and especially head coach Sean McVay's scheme functional again.
As we've seen with Todd Gurley and plenty of others over the years, whoever is starting at RB in a Sean McVay offense is usually good for fantasy. In Week 2, Williams played 95 percent of the offensive snaps while finishing as the RB4 with 2 total TDs and 10 total targets. He also finished as the RB7 in Week 1 in half-PPR formats. If the Rams offense can continue to sustain it's high-flying ways, it's going to be something that we are going to want as many pieces of as possible in fantasy land.
Ronnie Rivers and rookie Zach Evans are the only competition for Williams on the depth chart and so it does appear that he could see the bulk of the carries going forward. If you can't trade him for a blue-chip running back, the best advice is just to hold the line.
Trade Index: Hold
James Cook, Buffalo Bills
Another polarizing player during the summer of the 2023 draft season, it was easy to see the pros and cons of drafting James Cook. Some doubted that due to his overall size and lack of usage in college that he couldn't become a workhorse back in the NFL. However, as long as he is on the high-octane Bills offense, he will have plenty of opportunities to score fantasy points.
The good? Cook has been the Bills' lead RB through 2 weeks playing 58% of the snaps, getting 52% of the rushes, having a 54% route participation, and an 11% target share per Dwain McFarland of MB Fantasy Life. The bad? Cook has continued to get vultured by RBs Damien Harris and Latavius Murray inside the red zone. Currently, Cook has just 20% of the carries inside the 5-yard line. He will also likely get rushing TDs taken away by QB Josh Allen in the future.
James Cook balled out in Week 2. pic.twitter.com/F4A4FcyG1A
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) September 18, 2023
Cook should be viewed as a solid RB2 for the rest of the season, but if you can upgrade to a Josh Jacobs or Tony Pollard type it is a move worth making. It definitely appears that the Bills want to help preserve Josh Allen's body and take away some of his rushing, but it's hard to imagine Buffalo completely abandoning the offensive ideology that has made them so successful over the past few seasons. Cook's ceiling appears capped as things currently stand.
Trade Index: Sell-High
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders
It's been a slow start for Jacobs this season after he was the RB2 in all of fantasy in 2022. Jacobs has just 28 rush attempts for a paltry 46 yards and no TDs. The Raiders are 1-1, but face a stout Steelers defense in Week 3.
The good news for Jacobs is he has no competition for touches from any other RB on the depth chart and the offense features two other talented skill players in WR Davante Adams and the underrated Jakobi Meyers. QB Jimmy Garoppolo has looked more than competent this season, so the Raiders have the potential to be a fantasy gold mine with how bad their defense is expected to be. Shootouts are always good for fantasy.
It’s obvious that Josh Jacobs has to knock some rust off—it happens, he’s allowed to be human. That being said, if Josh McDaniels and Co. can fix the run-blocking woes, it’s only a matter of time before #RaiderNation sees this guy again 👇pic.twitter.com/WfU7jpgrDW
— RaiderRamble.com™ (@TheRaiderRamble) September 20, 2023
While the first 2 games for Jacobs is far from ideal, there is no reason to panic. He is still just 25 years old and should shake off some of his holdout rust from earlier in the preseason after holding out. While it may not be fair to expect the same production from Jacobs as 2022, he should be viewed as a solid RB1 for the rest of the season.
Trade Index: Hold
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