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Hello everybody, and welcome to our PrizePicks NFL DFS prop picks for Week 5 - Sunday Early 1 PM Slate! The 2023 NFL season is underway, and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of.
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PrizePicks Over/Under DFS Props Contests
PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play.
On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
Before diving into some solid fantasy score totals this week, we must first cover the PrizePicks scoring format. The format is PPR, which stands for "point per reception," meaning every reception is worth one point.
Rushing and receiving touchdowns are worth six points, and passing touchdowns are worth four points. Each rushing or receiving yard is worth .1, meaning every 10 yards of either is worth one point. Quarterback passing yards are worth .04, which means every 25 passing yards are worth one point.
If you ever have questions, you can always click the "scoring chart" option above the player selections for each contest. Now, let's get to some solid fantasy score props for this week.
NFL DFS Props - Over/Under Picks for Week 5
Be sure to also check out our brand new PrizePicks Optimizer tool and the free PrizePicks DFS Props Tool to see more recommended picks.
Zay Flowers MORE than 55.5 receiving yards
Zay Flowers has started 2023 by hauling in 24 of 29 targets for 244 receiving yards while eclipsing this total in three of those four games. He will be up against a Steelers defense that has been horrid against the wide receiver position to begin 2023.
Over the first four weeks of the season, Pittsburgh has allowed an average of 217 receiving yards per game to wide receivers, which ranks fourth-worst in the league. They have also allowed five different wide receivers to eclipse this total on the season with at least one wide receiver going over the total in every game they have played. It makes the most sense to take Flowers here as he has garnered more targets than any other wide receiver on the Ravens' roster.
Trevor Lawrence LESS than 248.5 passing yards
We hit on Trevor Lawrence going under his pass prop in London last week, and here where are again where it makes even more sense. Lawrence has eclipsed this total in just one of his first four games, and that came in Week 1 against the Indianapolis Colts.
This week, he will be up against a Bills defense that has been stout against the pass by allowing an average of just 194 passing yards per game to the quarterback position, which ranks fourth-best in the league. While they will be without star cornerback Tre'Davious White, they should still be strong enough to keep Lawrence under this total. The only concern here would be the Jaguars getting down big early, forcing them to completely abandon the run. Even then, this is a tough number for Lawrence to eclipse and it will likely decrease as the week progresses.
David Montgomery MORE than .5 pass+ rush + rec touchdowns
David Montgomery has now handled the ball 72 times through three games and is proving himself to be the feature back in Detroit as the season progresses. He has now scored in all three games played, amassing five total touchdowns.
He and the Lions will be up against a Carolina Panthers defense that has allowed the third-most rushing yards to the running back position on the season while also allowing an average of nearly five yards per carry. They have also given up a whopping seven total touchdowns to the position, which ranks third-worst in the league behind only the Denver Broncos and Chicago Bears. Add in the fact that the Lions have an implied total of 27.5 points and are favored by 10 points in this game, and you have a very solid shot at connecting on this play.
DeAndre Hopkins LESS than 57.5 receiving yards
This is one of the top plays on the PrizePicks Optimizer this week as it has been given a 55.56% chance of success. Hopkins has failed to eclipse this total in two of the Titans' three previous games. His targets have also dropped off since Week 1 as he has averaged just six targets per game over the previous three weeks.
The main concern here is that the Colts' defense has allowed the seventh-most receiving yards to the wide receiver position thus far in 2023. That being said, they have also not been superb against the rush and that is likely the approach this Titans offense will take in this game as it has been their method for some time now. The books also have this number collectively listed somewhere around 53.5 receiving yards, so we are getting a discount at 57.5 receiving yards.
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