RADIO
Welcome back to the PGA DFS: Vegas Report. Kevin Kisner exceeded his runner-up finish during last year's Dell Technologies Match Play with a victory in 2019. After losing his opening match in the group stage portion to Ian Poulter, the American outlasted Tony Finau and Keith Mitchell to force a sudden-death playoff with Poulter on Friday. It took Kisner three holes to dispatch of the English match play sensation, and the 35-year-old never looked back. Kisner ousted Haotong Li 6 & 5, Louis Oosthuizen 2 & 1, Francesco Molinari on the final hole and Matt Kuchar in the finals 3 & 2. Kisner has long been recognized as one of the better match play players in the world, and the victory in Texas will give future American captains even more of a reason to consider the 25th-ranked player in the world for upcoming international events.
Our outright card got off to a quick start but flamed out over the weekend. Three of our selections made the final 16, featuring Haotong Li (125/1) and Henrik Stenson (66/1) losing their first matches on Saturday, while Sergio Garcia (45/1) saw his run come to an end in the quarterfinals. You can't ask for much more than having three bullets going into the weekend, but as has been the case the past few weeks, we weren't able to have any of our choices get over the hump.
Golf betting is all about ebbs and flows. You can expect some consistency when it comes to head-to-head wagers, but your futures bets will always be hit-and-miss throughout a season. We ideally are looking to hit a handful winners in a year and options like each-way betting will allow some to gain an even more significant edge in each tournament. Unfortunately, however, each-way betting isn't accessible to everyone, which does regrettably lower some expected value if you are gambling without that option. It doesn't mean that we still can't beat the market, but our head-to-head wagers and things of that nature will have to carry us through most weeks. With the Valero Texas Open on tap, let's take a look at some value plays we will be targeting in San Antonio.
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2019 Valero Texas Open - TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course)
7,435 Yards - Par 72 - Greens Bermuda
TPC San Antonio Oaks Course was designed by Greg Norman in consultation with Sergio Garcia and has been host to this event since 2010. A staggering 156 players will be teeing it up this week, which is nearly an eight percent increase from the roughly 144 player fields we were receiving during the Florida swing.
However, despite having more competitors, the Valero Texas Open is one of the weakest events on tour. With the Masters next week, most golfers are heading down to Augusta National to get prepared for the years first major. That has left us with just three players who are ranked inside the top-30 in the world and an additional seven inside the top-50. Unfortunately, that hasn't always resulted in the cream rising to the top for these events. Our last seven winners have been Andrew Landry, Kevin Chappell, Charley Hoffman, Jimmy Walker, Steven Bowditch, Martin Laird and Ben Curtis. The list is littered with respectable names, but the top players in the world often haven't walked out of San Antonio victorious.
Part of that reason may come down to the unpredictably of the wind. Club selection is challenging, and gusts of wind can wreak havoc on an entire portion of the draw. The venue is long at over 7,400 yards, and driving distance will matter. The greens are lightning quick, and it has historically been one of the more difficult stops yearly. You don't need to look any further than Kevin Na's 16 in 2011.
Valero Texas Open Best Bets
We have a few interesting tidbits to consider for the Valero Texas Open this season. As always, the wind will play a critical factor in deciding the winner. It is never easy to figure out a weather bias when the wind is the prevailing factor we are trying gauge correctly but pay attention to weather reports as we approach Thursday. Secondly, it must be noted that we are just one week away from the Masters. It is impossible to measure if that will affect any of the golfers that have already booked their tickets to Augusta, but it is something worth giving extra consideration.
From this point forward, I have decided to change up the dynamics of the article. Included below are 10 golfers that I would contemplate placing a wager on at the Valero Texas Open. That doesn't mean you should bet every name listed, and in fact, it would be nearly impossible to have a winning week if you did. Instead, this is meant to serve as a tool for you to examine and try to piece together your own wagers. Remember, you want to try and win around the same amount on every player, so keep that in mind when putting together your choices this weekend.
#1 Luke List - 50/1, DK Price $8,000, FD Price $10,500
Unlike most events, there is a realistic path where you could place a wager on every name listed in the article this week. There isn't a golfer that I have recommended that is under 40/1, and six of our 10 selections range between 80/1 to 250/1. At the end of the day, it comes down to how much exposure you are looking to have the weekend before the Masters, but I do believe anyone that has done their research this season will have a long-term advantage at the Valero Texas Open.
Luke List is expected to be one of the more popular options on DFS sites this weekend, but his big-hitting style is ideal for taking a flier on at odds of 50/1. TPC San Antonio is known for being long and windy, and List has shown the ability to excel in blustery conditions. In his past 24 rounds compared to the field with moderate to extreme wind, List ranks second in ball striking, second in strokes gained approach and second in strokes gained off the tee. The 34-year-old has backtracked slightly over the previous few months, but he is still one of the better players in the world without a victory on the PGA Tour, and a venue like TPC San Antonio should highlight his length, ball striking and par-five scoring.
Priced at $8,000 on DraftKings, List is projected to be the sixth most popular player, but I believe his reduced price tag makes him an option you must consider in GPP events. List makes for an excellent second option to pair with Rickie Fowler, who is projected to be one of the lowest owned golfers priced above $9,000. The two American golfers might be my favorite way to begin GPP cards this weekend and should provide a nice balance of one pivot option and one popular choice.
#2 Abraham Ancer - 40/1, DK Price $8,900, FD Price $10,300
A lot of DFS ownership in this range is going to trickle to Byeong Hun An. It is not to say that Abraham Ancer won't be selected in his fair share of lineups, but a five percent discount in ownership from An to Ancer is my preferred route this weekend. The 58th-ranked player in the world plays under the Mexican flag but holds dual-citizenship having been born in Texas. His experience of playing in windy conditions has helped him to capture a title on the Web.Com Tour in Nova Scotia, as well as a win on the PGA Tour of Australasia. The 28-year-old has not currently qualified for the Masters and will need a victory in San Antonio to book the final ticket to Augusta.
Ancer grades out well across the board, ranking inside the top-25 compared to the field in strokes gained approach, ball striking, proximity over 150 yards and birdie or better percentage. He does only grade 43rd in driving distance and has struggled to score on par-fives this season, but Ancer has the tools to make the Valero Texas Open his first career PGA Tour win.
#3 Haotong Li - 40/1, DK Price $8,600, FD Price $10,000
I might have been a week early on my Haotong Li recommendation at the WGC-Match Play. I used the Chinese sensation in 'One and Done' contests and was pleased to have him escape his group of Brooks Koepka, Alex Noren and Tom Lewis, but his tournament was put to a screeching halt with a 6 & 5 loss to Kevin Kisner in the round of 16.
Many forget that Li is still just 23 years old. The 38th-ranked golfer in the world is growing as a player every day, and victories over Alex Noren and Brooks Koepka will only help to increase Li's confidence going forward. His win at the 2018 Dubai Desert Classic over Rory McIlroy put him on the map, and Li's 40/1 price at the Valero Texas Open is too large when you consider his world-class pedigree. Consider this to be more of a number grab than anything else, but the Chinese star has shown great ability to play in the wind and should only be around five percent owned on DraftKings with his $8,600 price tag. I would avoid him in cash-games but love the upside he possesses in the GPP and outright markets.
#4 Ryan Palmer - 55/1, DK Price $8,400, FD Price $9,800
Ryan Palmer missed the cut last season at the Valero Texas Open, but he had recorded three consecutive top-six finishes at TPC San Antonio before his failed attempt in 2018. The American has been a volatile option over the years, but that is something that we can live with when it comes to an outright wager.
Palmer enters the event ranked ninth in strokes gained approach, 14th in ball striking, fourth in proximity over 150 yards and third in birdie or better percentage compared to the field, and the 42-year-old has always been known for his immaculate ability in the wind, which stems from growing up in Amarillo, Texas. Palmer's 15 percent projected ownership is on the hefty side of things, but as is the case with Luke List, he is an option to consider pairing with Rickie Fowler to begin GPP lineups.
#5 Joaquin Niemann - 80/1, DK Price $7,600, FD Price $9,600
If we look back on what jumpstarted Joaquin Niemann's ascension up the world rankings last season, his sixth-place showing at the Valero Texas Open is what can be credited for a lot of his success that followed. The now 20-year-old had a marvelous 15 tournament run, posting 12 made cuts and seven top-25 finishes. Unfortunately, the Chilean appears to have hit a wall recently, posting 10 consecutive finishes outside of the top-35, including three missed cuts.
When we dive a little deeper into what has gone wrong, Niemann hasn't been nearly as bad as the results may indicate. In his 23 trackable PGA Tour starts, the former No. 1 amateur in the world has gained strokes tee to green 20 times. Naturally, that means something else must be holding him back, and we don't need to look any further than his putting. Niemann has lost strokes on the greens in 11 of his previous 14 tournaments, including losing at least 3.5 strokes in seven of those appearances.
Niemann remains a bit of an enigma on tour, but he fits into that Luke List and Byeong Hun An territory where if he can be decent on the greens, he has the potential to walk out of any event victorious. It is hard to pass on him at 80/1, although his 12.6 percent projected ownership on DFS sites does make him an option to consider fading in all formats.
#6 Brendan Steele - 150/1, DK Price $7,200, FD Price $8,900
What in the world has happened to Brendan Steele lately? Six missed cuts in his previous seven events, including no top-10 showings in his past 28 tournaments. The American has gone from inside the top-50 when he arrived at this tournament last season to outside the top-150 in the world for his appearance in 2019.
The form that Steele is currently possessing makes him a challenging option to recommend for obvious reasons, but only Ryan Palmer (4) has posted more top-10 finishes since 2018 at the Valero Texas Open than Steele (3). Course history isn't necessarily a reason to jump on a golfer that is priced at 150/1, but his statistics this season are respectable in a lot of the key categories we have pinpointed this weekend. Compared to the field, Steele is ranked 13th in strokes gained off the tee, 17th in driving distance, first in total driving, first in ball striking and ninth in proximity over 150 yards.
His sand save percentage, scrambling, scoring average and putting have him outside the top-100, but TPC San Antonio is where the 158th-ranked player in the world captured his first career PGA Tour victory in 2011, and the return to the venue might be what the American needs to find a spark in his game. Steele is priced at $7,200 on DraftKings and is projected to be under three percent owned. That is good enough for me to take a small flier on him in GPP contests and makes him worth a second glance as an outright wager.
#7 Trey Mullinax - 80/1, DK Price $7,400, FD Price $9,400
Last year's second place finisher, Trey Mullinax returns to TPC San Antonio hoping to find the winner's circle on the PGA Tour for the first time in his career. The big-hitter comes into the event ranked 19th compared to the field in driving distance and sixth in proximity over 150 yards.
While all of the above provides a positive picture for the 238th-ranked golfer, the 26-year-old has been held back by two major components this year. For starters, Mullinax's driving accuracy places him 121st compared to his competitors. That number isn't ideal but may be less concerning than usual since TPC San Antonio features wide fairways and rough that isn't overly penal. If the American can avoid going out of bounds with his tee shots, his distance will present an advantage in Texas. Secondly, and perhaps the more significant concern would be Mullinax's putting. The former University of Alabama product is ranked 110th compared to the field in strokes gained-putting and has lost strokes on the greens in 11 of his previous 12 events.
That isn't necessarily a positive statistic for his potential this weekend in Texas, but Mullinax has been a substantially better putter on quick greens, which is what he will see this week at TPC San Antonio. In his previous 10 rounds putting on fast surfaces, he has gained strokes putting six times, resulting in three top-25 results. Mullinax's 12.6 percent projected ownership on DraftKings isn't optimal, and he is another choice that might be better suited as an outright selection than DFS play. However, don't be mistaken, the upside is there for success. It just depends on how aggressively you want to employ him this weekend.
#8 Harold Varner III - 150/1, DK Price $6,600, FD Price $8,300
Harold Varner III may have missed his window to find the winner's circle towards the end of 2018, but the 167th-ranked player in the world shouldn't be discounted at a venue that emphasizes ball striking and driving distance.
Varner posted a ninth-place showing in 2016 at the Valero but has gradually declined the past two seasons at the event. His missed cut last year mixed with his current form of no top-50 results in his previous five tournaments has kept his price tag down on DFS sites, but that won't stop me from giving him a second glance. Compared to the field in 2019, Varner is ranked 21st in strokes gained off the tee, 19th in driving distance and 11th in ball striking. His value of $6,600 on DraftKings makes him an extremely affordable selection, although he is projected to be one of the more popular players in this range at around seven percent projected ownership. As a potential GPP candidate, seven percent doesn't overly concern me, and I am fine taking a flier on him in large-field events.
#9 Corey Conners - 200/1, DK Price $6,400
It has been a perplexing season for Conners, who is ranked 66th in the FedExCup standings but has still found it difficult to crack the field most weeks. Relying on Monday qualifiers isn't a preferred course of action, but we have seen the 27-year-old take this route multiple times, including at the Valspar Championship in 2018, where he flirted with holding the lead during the opening three rounds before faltering on Sunday with a 77 to finish in a share of 16th place.
I love Conners' price tag of $6,400 on DraftKings for two separate reasons. It isn't only a cheap cost that can be easily added to make room for a much more top-heavy card, but since he qualified on Monday, his name wasn't added until so late that many aren't even aware that he is in the field. Conners is currently projected to be less than three percent owned but has the potential to win the event in San Antonio. In his previous 24 rounds compared to the field on fast or lightning greens, Conners is ranked first in ball striking and fourth in strokes gained off the tee. The 196th-ranked player in the world will be a golfer that I find myself overweight on this weekend.
#10 Sam Ryder - 250/1, DK Price $6,300, FD Price $8,100
Sam Ryder's price keeps increasing week after week, but I am not complaining that we will get an opportunity to grab the American at odds of 250/1. In fairness, the 166th-ranked golfer in the world has somewhat struggled since his third-place showing at the Shriners Open in Las Vegas, posting four missed cuts in 10 events while failing to provide a top-30 result, but Ryder's game feels like it could be suited for the grueling test in San Antonio.
The 29-year-old has been a quality wind player in his previous 24 rounds in moderate to severe conditions, ranking first in opportunities gained and seventh in ball striking. It remains to be seen if his lack of length off the tee will be too much of a deterrent, but Ryder doesn't make many mistakes, and if he can continue to create opportunities to go along with his mistake-free golf, he could find himself on the first few pages of the leaderboard come the weekend. Priced at $6,300 on DraftKings, Ryder is only projected to be four percent owned and provides a solid contrarian option for those looking for a bare-minimum priced player.
MY TOP 30 RANKED GOLFERS FOR THE WEEK
Key Stats: Ball Striking 20%, Driving Distance 20%, SG Approach 15%, Proximity From 150+ Yards 15%, Par-Five Birdie Or Better Percentage 15%, Birdie Or Better Percentage 15%
50% Stats/30% Form/20% Course History
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
Trey Mullinax -110 over Justin Harding -110
Trey Mullinax $7,400 price tag on DraftKings vs. Justin Harding $7,700 price tag on DraftKings
Trey Mullinax 12.6 percent projected ownership vs. Justin Harding 4.0 percent projected ownership
1.1 Units to Win 1.0
I would have preferred to have taken Luke List over Lucas Bjerregaard, but List's price quickly shot up to -130 before I was able to release this article. As things stand, I will take on another foreign player that hopefully will have his eyes on the Masters.
Justin Harding has made four appearances on the PGA Tour in the past year, which includes a share of 17th at last week's WGC-Match Play, a tie of 46th place at the WGC-HSBC Champions, a share of 43rd at the CIMB Classic and a missed cut at the PGA Championship. Outside of the PGA Championship and the match play event, his other two stops came during the fall swing in China and Malaysia, so Harding is still somewhat inexperienced when it comes to golf in the United States.
The South African presented a solid display of his talents last weekend, recording a 2-1 record with victories over Matthew Fitzpatrick and Luke List. His only loss came to Rory McIlroy, who beat him 3 & 2 on the second day, but Harding showed that he could compete with PGA Tour-caliber players. And for the record, none of this should be a massive surprise, considering Harding is ranked 48th in the world and has captured a total of five European, Asian or African titles since 2018.
The issue is that PGA Tour golf is different and the 33-year-old will be slightly out of his comfort zone this weekend. Harding did play his college golf at Lamar University, a university located in Texas but as has been the case with fellow South African players such as Dylan Frittelli, who played at Texas University, the transition to the PGA Tour isn't always the easiest. The wager this week comes down to experience, and I believe TPC San Antonio will be a challenging test if you haven't seen it before. A player like Rickie Fowler might be able to get away with it, but he is also in his home country and won't have to deal with being nearly 10,000 miles away from home. Good luck this weekend if you are wagering on the Valero Texas Open and hopefully we can acquire some extra funds for next week's Masters
2019 Head-to-Head Record (10-4-2)
+7.27 Units Year-To-Date From H2H Bets
|
Tournament |
Head-to-Head Bet |
Bet |
My Picks Finish |
Opponent Finish |
Result |
Total |
|
Safeway Open |
Sangmoon Bae +130 Over Chris Kirk |
1.00 Units to Win 1.30 |
MC (+2) |
MC (E) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
CIMB Classic |
Kevin Na -120 over Kevin Tway |
1.50 Units to Win 1.25 |
T19 (-17) |
T27 (-13) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
CJ Cup |
Paul Casey +100 over Marc Leishman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T18 (-8) |
T18 (-8) |
Push |
0 |
|
WGC-HSBC |
Thomas Pieters +120 over Kevin Na |
1.00 Units to Win 1.20 |
T18 (-1) |
T54 (+10) |
Win |
1.20 |
|
Shriners |
Austin Cook +100 over Russell Henley |
1.00 Units to Win 1.00 |
MC (+1) |
MC (-1) |
Loss |
-1.00 |
|
Mayakoba |
Kevin Chappell +100 over Charley Hoffman |
1.25 Units to Win 1.25 |
T41 (-9) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
RSM Classic |
Patrick Rodgers -105 over Bronson Burgoon |
1.05 Units to Win 1.00 |
2nd (-19) |
MC (+2) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Sony Open |
Jimmy Walker -115 over Kevin Na |
1.15 Units to Win 1.00 |
T51 (-6) |
Did Not Start |
Push |
0 |
|
Desert Classic |
Anders Albertson -110 over Anirban Lahiri |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T34 (-14) |
MC (-8) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
J.B. Holmes +130 over Branden Grace |
0.70 Units to Win 0.91 |
MC (+4) |
MC (+3) |
Loss |
-0.70 |
|
Farmers Insurance |
Jordan Spieth -110 over Alex Noren |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T35 (-7) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Waste Management |
Ryan Palmer +105 over Kevin Tway |
1.00 Units to Win 1.05 |
T60 (E) |
MC (E) |
Win |
1.05 |
|
Genesis Open |
Hideki Matsuyama -110 over Jordan Spieth |
1.10 Units to Win 1.00 |
T9 (-7) |
T51 (+1) |
Win |
1.00 |
|
Honda Classic |
Zach Johnson -115 over Kiradech Aphibarnrat |
1.43 Units to Win 1.25 |
T59 (+3) |
MC (+10) |
Win |
1.25 |
|
Arnold Palmer |
Chesson Hadley -110 over Chris Kirk |
0.82 Units to win 0.75 |
T17 (-5) |
T15 (-6) |
Loss |
-0.82 |
|
Players Championship |
Tiger Woods +105 over Rickie Fowler |
0.75 Units to win 0.79 |
T30 (-6) |
T47 (-3) |
Win |
0.79 |
2019 Outright Bets That Have Finished Inside the Top-10
|
Player |
Event |
Odds |
Finish Position |
|
Matt Kuchar |
Mayakoba Golf Classic |
66/1 |
1 |
|
Chesson Hadley |
CIMB Classic |
110/1 |
T2 |
|
Ryan Palmer |
CJ Cup |
150/1 |
T3 |
|
Sam Ryder |
Shriners Hospitals |
80/1 |
3 |
|
Chez Reavie |
Sony Open |
80/1 |
T3 |
|
Justin Thomas |
Waste Management |
10/1 |
3 |
|
Tommy Fleetwood |
Arnold Palmer |
35/1 |
T3 |
|
Rafa Cabrera-Bello |
Arnold Palmer |
60/1 |
T3 |
|
Lucas Glover |
Honda Classic |
60/1 |
T4 |
|
Jason Day |
CJ Cup |
13/1 |
T5 |
|
Sergio Garcia |
WGC-Match Play |
45/1 |
T5 |
|
Zach Johnson |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Kevin Kisner |
RSM Classic |
40/1 |
T7 |
|
Webb Simpson |
TOC |
25/1 |
T8 |
|
Jason Day |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Players Championship |
40/1 |
T8 |
|
J.B. Holmes |
Safeway Open |
60/1 |
9 |
|
Gary Woodland |
Farmers Insurance |
28/1 |
T9 |
|
Hideki Matsuyama |
Genesis Open |
30/1 |
T9 |
|
Shubankar Sharma |
CIMB Classic |
150/1 |
T10 |
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
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