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The PGA DFS: Vegas Report will take a look at both outright value bets and head-to-head wagers being offered for the given tournament. Our goal is not only to provide betting winners but also help to find value from both a DFS and betting related standpoint. With our outright winners, we will try to pinpoint the best positive equity bets of the week, and in the process, we hope this presents attractable DFS plays for you to consider. With our head-to-head bets, we will be looking at the most lopsided line of the week. This should also help to navigate some of the "who should I start?" questions from a DFS mentality.
For a full review of the DraftKings PGA Slate this weekend, check out Seth Finklestein's column reviewing picks at every price point.
And for a more in-depth breakdown of the top DraftKings and Fanduel plays, check out Joe Nicely's column providing the best fits for the week's course.
Editor's Note: Our friends at Fantasy National have built some incredible DFS Golf lineup tools including a Lineup Optimizer, Stat Engine, Ownership Projections and Course Breakdowns. They are by far the best daily fantasy Golf tools in the industry. Seriously. You can read all about them here and see screenshots.
2018 Greenbrier The Old White TPC - 7,286 Yards - Par 70 Greens: Bentgrass
The Old White TPC has been around for over a century and played host to the PGA Tour since 2010. Massive flooding in West Virginia two years ago forced a redesign of Charles Blair McDonald's original layout. There is a definite Scottish feel to the Greenbrier layout. Players can score on the Par 70, as evidenced by Stuart Appleby's final-round 59 in 2010. Xander Schauffele won last year's edition at 14-under par, and Danny Lee took home the 2015 title at 13-under.
We will look for player's that can rack up birdies and eagles this week. The Old White TPC has very generous fairways, and players that have length off the tee should be able to fire away. The Greenbrier greens are bentgrass, so it's helpful to identify players that do well on that putting surface.
Pick to Win
Russell Henley (20/1, DK Price $10,400, FD Price $10,500)
The gambling and DFS industries didn't do us any favors in the pricing of Russell Henley. Henley comes into the week as the fifth highest priced player in both the outright and DraftKings market. We do, however, see a little relief in his soft pricing on Fanduel. Henley comes in as just the 10th most expensive player there. In a way, though, the underpricing shouldn't be viewed as a celebration or leap for joy. Henley is going to be extremely popular across the DFS board, and any reduction in price is only going to add to that. But even with all the concern surrounding his popularity, Henley is my pick to win The Greenbrier.
Henley has been knocking on the door at this event for the past handful of years. He posted a share of fifth last year at the renovated course and a fifth in 2015 at the pre-renovated course. Henley is probably best used in the gambling market as a staple to cash-game lineups on DFS sites. His 20/1 outright price is slightly negative EV long-term, but he is the only player at the top of the market I can make a legit outright betting case for.
Sleepers
Aaron Wise (60/1, DK Price $7,900, FD Price $8,600)
Fanduel continues its weak pricing this week with Aaron Wise. Wise, who is the 19th highest priced player in the outright market, comes in as the 22nd player on DraftKings and only the 35th most expensive player on Fanduel. The 22-year-old American golfer will be taking his first crack at the Old White TPC course, but statistically, he should find it to suit his game. Wise ranks second in birdies or better gained, fifth in strokes gained on par-fives and 12th in strokes gained tee to green in his last 24 rounds. At roughly 12.5 percent owned, Wise will make an enticing play across the board. I believe this is a situation where the betting market is better zoned into Wise's actual value, especially when it comes to Fanduel and their mispricing.
Kevin Chappell (60/1, DK Price $7,700, FD Price $10,300)
Since returning from his back injury, Kevin Chappell has been AWFUL. Chappell has missed five of his last seven cuts and has failed to produce a top-25 showing in his two made cuts. The thing is, Chappell wouldn't still be risking his health if something was bothering him from an injury standpoint, which means it just all comes down to refinding his form. This shouldn't come as a surprise based off of his results, but Chappell has been average from a statistical standpoint, but the primary thing drawing me to the 31-year-old American is his current birdies or better ranking.
In his last 24 rounds compared to the field, Chappell comes in ranked 11th. It is an encouraging sign that the 58th-ranked player in the world is finding a way to score, and I think it is just a matter of time before Chappell provides a prominent showing. The American is 12th in the Fanduel pricing, 26th on DraftKings and 19th in the betting market.
Andrew Putnam (60/1, DK Price $7,800, FD Price $10,000)
Andrew Putnam comes into the week having made eight consecutive cuts on the PGA Tour, including three top-eight finishes. At a 60/1 outright number and zero career wins on the PGA Tour, Putnam may appear to be overinflated at his current value, but I think he has a legit shot to capture his first career title this weekend at The Old White TPC. Putnam reminds me a lot of Chez Reavie.
Reavie had a 20-tournament stretch from 2017 to 2018 of where he hovered in the top-25 of the leaderboard every week. Putnam hasn't gone for nearly as long, but the same similarities of these two players seem to be coinciding. Reavie, unfortunately, could only muster two second-place finishes as his best result during that stretch, but with Putnam's game continuing to trend in the right direction, I could see the 29-year-old journeyman finally breaking through. He comes into the week ranked 19th in the betting market, 15th on Fanduel and 24th on DraftKings.
J.J. Spaun (110/1, DK Price $7,400, FD Price $8,100)
J.J. Spaun's 2018 season has been riddled with one injury after another. In fact, since Spaun has gotten his PGA Tour card in late 2016, he has appeared to have a setback every time he starts getting himself close to his first PGA Tour title. The 27-year-old American had a blistering close to 2017, posting three straight top-15 finishes, including a second-place finish at the RSM Classic. But ever since then, Spaun has been struggling both physically and mentally to get himself back to top-level form. After a stretch of golf that saw Spaun miss seven out of 10 cuts on tour, he has rebounded with some decent consistency here as of late, making not only three of his last five cuts but also finishing in a share of third place at the AT&T Byron Nelson.
Compared to the field on the season, Spaun comes into the week ranked seventh in birdie or better percentage, 12th in strokes gained tee to green and 12th in par-four average. The second-year pro may only be the 147th-ranked golfer in the world, but if his game continues to trend in the right direction, he will have a chance of capturing his first title here at The Old White TPC.
Bonus Bomb
Patton Kizzire (250/1, DK Price $6,700, FD Price $8,000)
Patton Kizzie has missed six of his last eight cuts, but I think his results are a bit misleading. He obviously isn't in great form, but what his missed cuts don't tell you is the fact that he has been hovering around cut lines and just narrowly missing most cuts. If you look at Kizzire from a 50 round perspective, which admittingly is going to include some of his quality finishes, Kizzire ranks 11th in birdies or better gained, 17th in strokes gained-putting and 24th in strokes gained on par-fives.
At a one percent ownership across DFS sites, I think he makes for the ultimate swing for the fence GPP play. More likely than not, Kizzire will continue his negative trend, but at 250/1, you aren't going to find a player in this range who has shown the propensity to win recently, let alone twice in the past year.
Head-to-Head Play of the Week
C.T. Pan +105 over Bill Haas -125
C.T. Pan $7,300 price tag on DraftKings vs. Bill Haas $7,200 price tag
C.T Pan 12 percent projected ownership vs. Bill Haas 3.5 percent projected ownership
There is no doubt about it, C.T. Pan is going to be the more widely used option in the DFS community than Bill Haas will be. With that being said, there is a well-defined distortion going on between the DFS industry and the betting market. Pan is $100 more expensive on DraftKings and finds himself at roughly an 8.5 percent higher projected ownership level, but for whatever reason, the gambling market has instilled Bill Haas as a moderate favorite over Pan.
Haas has made four of his last five cuts here at The Old White TPC, which could be the reason behind the favoritism for the 36-year-old American golfer, but the previous time Haas came into the Greenbrier with such shaky form, he missed the cut in 2015. Pan, on the other hand, has only played the Greenbrier once, finishing in a share of 68th place last season. Statistically is where I believe Pan separates himself from Haas most dramatically. In Pan's previous 24 rounds compared to the field, he ranks 15th in strokes gained tee to green, 34th in strokes gained on par-fives and 31st in birdies or better gained.
Haas in those exact statistics grades out 101st in strokes gained tee to green, 132nd in strokes gained on par-fives and 141st in birdies or better gained. I believe the gambling market has the wrong man as the favorite in this match-up, and I will not be surprised if this line starts to shift towards the 26-year-old Taiwanese golfer in the upcoming day.
Golf DFS News and Player Outlooks
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