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Here at RotoBaller, we are always searching for ways to give our readers the best fantasy sports content possible. With that goal in mind, we are very proud to announce the arrival of our new column that will cover head-to-head plays for each PGA Tour stop. If you are looking for a more in-depth breakdown, be sure to also check out my weekly PGA DFS: Vegas Report. There you will find my complete betting card, as well as my head-to-head play of the week.
My premium head-to-head selections have gone an impressive (76-40-8), netting nearly 44 units of profit and almost a 66% success rate. On top of that, my outright wagers have yielded 20 winners since the inception of the article - including a 200/1 outright victor at the Valero Texas Open last season and five so far in 2020, making it a must-read for gambling enthusiasts. If you would like to receive a discount on your order, be sure to use my checkout code TEEOFF.
In this feature, I will present a handful of head-to-head wagers that just missed out on being my best bet of the week for my Vegas Report article. If you have any questions, feel free to contact me on Twitter @Teeoffsports. Be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS and betting articles to help you win big!
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Free Head-To-Head Selection
Zach Johnson -106 over Dylan Frittelli
Reasons I Liked the Play:
It was a brilliant Masters for Dylan Frittelli, finishing fifth in only his second appearance, but it is essential to recognize the differences between Augusta and Sea Island. Frittelli's strength as a player comes from his ability to gain strokes off the tee - a stat that will be neutralized with the shortened layout. A 35th-place result here last season does show that he can find the property to fit his eye, but I believe the increase in pricing he has received because of last week's result doesn't exactly correlate with what we should expect this weekend. I'd have priced this closer to -125 for Zach Johnson.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Of the selections listed in this article, this was the closest to making the 'Vegas Report.' While Johnson wasn't able to better Frittelli's result here in 2019, the American has been a pristine example of what we should expect from a player at the RSM Classic. Back-to-back top-eight showings in 2017 and 2018 should place Johnson as an option with safety/upside, and I wouldn't be shocked if we see Frittelli slip-up in his first event after four hard-fought days at Augusta.
1.06 Units to Win 1.00
Henrik Norlander +108 over Adam Hadwin
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Recent poor form has negated a lot of the good work Henrik Norlander had done earlier in the season, but a deeper dive into his results shows a golfer that is barely missing cuts because of random outlier performances. Norlander's last two failed ventures at the Bermuda and Houston Open came from one of his two rounds tanking his performance, but it is not as if either showing resulted in him missing the cut by over a shot. The robust finishes might not be as frequent as they once were, but the Swede's four straight made cuts at Sea Island, which includes two top-five finishes, should place him in a territory that makes him an undervalued commodity in Georgia.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
If nothing else, Adam Hadwin knows how to earn a paycheck. I say that with him having missed the cut at the Masters, but the RSM Classic will have a different feel for a player of Hadwin's stature. The Canadian's upside isn't quite what the public perceives it to be, but I do imagine Hadwin has plans to play four days, making this wager more volatile for numerous reasons. I still believe Norlander's ceiling wins out if he gets himself to the weekend, but I wouldn't guarantee we avoid another potential implosion.
0.93 Units to Win 1.00
*** With Henrik Norlander testing positive for COVID-19, my next two closest pivots would have been Sepp Straka +109 over J.T. Poston and Doc Redman +120 over Ian Poulter. Neither will be counted for official betting purposes, but I do believe each has some value at their current number.
Austin Cook +104 over Alex Noren
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Austin Cook has provided two top-11s at the RSM Classic over the past three years, which includes a victory in 2017. Add that to his current form that has seen him post back-to-back top-25 results, and there is a window of opportunity that might show the American to be the safer option. Alex Noren's four tournaments over a 10-week stretch have produced two 17th-place results, but he hasn't cracked the top-75 in the additional two tournaments.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
There are certain players my model hates, and Alex Noren continues to be one of those guys. We have opposed him five times as of the last year, going (2-1-2) in the process. The sample size is too small to derive much from the results, but I have noticed that the Swede has overperformed in pretty much every wager, even the ones where we were able to find the winner's circle. I worry slightly that while Seaside has proven to be an excellent venue for Cook, Noren has historically been the better player on tour. With all that being said, my math has Cook closer to -120 for the matchup, and I am willing to take the nearly 25-point advantage we have been handed.
0.96 Units to Win 1.00
Matthew Fitzpatrick +127 over Harris English
Reasons I Liked the Play:
Pure math play.
Reasons It Didn't Make the Premium Card:
Consider this a coin flip. My math has Matthew Fitzpatrick as a very marginal favorite to outlast Harris English, but I do think it is worth a wager with the seven percent implied probability edge that we are being gifted. For those that are looking for a positive equity wager, I am fine playing this at any plus-number you can grab. With ties thrown out of the mix, expect to win this roughly 51% of the time and lose it the additional 49%. The percentage might not sound great on paper, but these wagers can add up over time.
0.78 Units to Win 0.99
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2020 Premium Head-to-Head Record (16-13-3)
2.40 Units Year-To-Date From Premium H2H Bets
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponents Finish | Result | Total |
| Sanderson Farms | Denny McCarthy -110 over Martin Laird -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T18 (-11) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Safeway Open | Cameron Percy -110 over Danny Lee -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T7 (-12) | MC (+2) | Win | 1 |
| Shriners Open | Bud Cauley -115 over Phil Mickelson -105 | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | 61 (-9) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Houston Open | Jhonattan Vegas +100 over Aaron Baddeley -120 | 1.12 Units to Win 1.12 | MC (+3) | MC (+3) | Push | 0 |
| Mayakoba Classic | Denny McCarthy +110 over Kevin Kisner -130 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T48 (-5) | T76 (+1) | Win | 1.1 |
| RSM Classic | Brian Stuard -105 over Chris Kirk -115 | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-13) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | J.T. Poston -110 over Brendan Todd -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1.1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Ryan Palmer -110 over Billy Horschel -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T21 (-6) | T68 (+1) | Win | 1 |
| Waste Management | Matthew Wolff -110 over Cameron Smith -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+5) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Pebble Beach | Scott Stallings -110 over Patrick Rodgers -110 | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | MC (E) | Win | 1 |
| Genesis Invitational | Cameron Smith +120 over Cameron Champ -140 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.44 | MC (+4) | MC (+6) | Win | 1.44 |
| WGC Mexico | Victor Perez +107 over Tyrrell Hatton -125 | 1.00 Units to Win 1.07 | T53 (+3) | T6 (-13) | Loss | -1 |
| Honda Classic | Corey Conners -120 over Wyndham Clark +100 | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+8) | T11 (-1) | Loss | -1.2 |
| Charles Schwab | Matt Kuchar -110 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| RBC Heritage | Justin Rose -145 over Jordan Spieth | .90 Units to Win 0.62 | T14 (-16) | T68 (-4) | Win | 0.62 |
| Travelers Championship | Ryan Palmer +130 over Billy Horschel | 0.80 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (-2) | MC (-2) | Push | 0 |
| Rocket Mortgage | Mark Hubbard -120 over Chris Kirk | 1.40 Units to Win 1.17 | T12 (-14) | T21 (-13) | Win | 1.17 |
| Workday | Ryan Palmer -120 over Matt Wallace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+14) | T39 (-4) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Jhonattan Vegas -120 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (-1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Will Gordon +130 over Patrick Rodgers | 1.20 Units to Win 1.56 | MC (+1) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.2 |
| 3M Open | Tommy Fleetwood -115 over Brooks Koepka | 1.15 Units to WIn 1.00 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -1.15 |
| 3M Open | Adam Schenk -101 over Matthias Schwab | 1.15 Units to Win 1.14 | T41 (-9) | T32 (-10) | Loss | -1.15 |
| PGA Championship | Daniel Berger -110 over Patrick Reed | 1.20 Units to Win 1.09 | T13 (-7) | T13 (-7) | Push | 0 |
| Wyndham Championship | Patrick Reed -120 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T9 (-16) | T59 (-5) | WIn | 1 |
| Northern Trust | Tiger Woods +100 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.35 Units to Win 1.35 | T58 (-6) | T44 (-8) | Loss | -1.35 |
| Safeway Open | Chesson Hadley +110 over Branden Grace | 1.20 Units to Win 1.32 | T14 (-15) | T29 (-13) | Win | 1.32 |
| U.S. Open | Brendon Todd -115 over Jordan Spieth | 1.35 Units to Win 1.17 | T23 (+10) | MC (+14) | Win | 1.17 |
| Corales Puntacana | Denny McCarthy -120 over Henrik Stenson | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | T41 (-6) | T21 (-9) | Win | -1.2 |
| Sanderson Farms | Brian Harman +110 over Byeong Hun An | 1.75 Units to Win 1.93 | T37 (-6) | MC (+4) | Win | 1.93 |
| Shriners Open | Cameron Smith -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T24 (-15) | MC (-3) | Win | 1 |
| Bermuda Championship | Justin Suh -110 over Danny Willet | 1.35 Units to Win 1.23 | MC (+2) | T55 (+1) | Loss | -1.35 |
Year-To-Date Free Head-To-Head Results
27-25-0 (+4.64 Units)
| Tournament | Head-to-Head Bet | Bet | My Picks Finish | Opponent Finish | Result | Total |
| Sony Open | Scott Piercy -110 over Russell Henley | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T45 (-1) | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Russell Knox -115 over Carlos Ortiz | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T32 (-3) | T53 (E) | Win | 1 |
| Sony Open | Abraham Ancer -110 over Kevin Kisner | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (-2) | T4 (-9) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Sony Open | Webb Simpson +160 over Justin Thomas | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 3rd (-10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.6 |
| Sony Open | Dylan Frittelli +105 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.00 Units to Win 1.05 | MC (+4) | T21 (-5) | Loss | -1 |
| American Express | Cameron Tringale -115 over Adam Long | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | T43 (-12) | MC (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Talor Gooch +100 over Brian Stuard | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T17 (-16) | 72 (-6) | Win | 1 |
| American Express | Andrew Putnam -110 over Kevin Na | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T10 (-18) | T17 (-16) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Marc Leishman -120 over Jordan Spieth | 1.20 Units to Win 1.00 | 1st (-15) | T55 (-1) | Win | 1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Lanto Griffin -110 over Cameron Champ | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+3) | T16 (-7) | Loss | -1 |
| Farmers Insurance | Joaquin Niemann +100 over Brandt Snedeker | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | T49 (-2) | T3 (-12) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Keegan Bradley +110 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | T49 (-3) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1 |
| Waste Management | Webb Simpson +160 over Jon Rahm | 1.00 Units to Win 1.60 | 1st (-17) | T9 (-11) | Win | 1.6 |
| Waste Management | Ryan Palmer -115 over Brendan Grace | 1.15 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (E) | T9 (-11) | Loss | -1.15 |
| Pebble Beach | Nick Watney -105 over Charley Hoffman | 0.70 Units to Win 0.67 | MC (-2) | MC (-1) | Win | 0.67 |
| Pebble Beach | Paul Casey +160 over Patrick Cantlay | 0.50 Units to Win 0.80 | T64 (+3) | T11 (-7) | Loss | -0.5 |
| Pebble Beach | Adam Hadwin +105 over Cameron Champ | 0.60 Units to Win 0.63 | MC (-1) | T55 (E) | Loss | -0.6 |
| Genesis Invitational | Ryan Palmer +110 over Corey Conners | 1.00 Units to Win 1.10 | 67th (+10) | MC (+3) | Win | 1.1 |
| WGC Mexico | Paul Casey +115 over Louis Oosthuizen | 1.00 Units to Win 1.15 | 11th (-11) | T51 (+2) | Win | 1.15 |
| Honda Classic | Gary Woodland -110 over Justin Rose | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T8 (-2) | MC (+6) | Win | 1 |
| Arnold Palmer | Tony Finau -103 over Jason Day | 0.75 Units to Win 0.73 | MC (+5) | WD | Win | 0.73 |
| Arnold Palmer | Bubba Watson -105 over Matthew Fitzpatrick | 0.75 Units to Win 0.71 | MC (+7) | T9 (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Arnold Palmer | Sungjae Im +101 over Patrick Reed | 0.75 Units to Win 0.76 | 3rd (-2) | T15 (+3) | Win | 0.76 |
| Charles Schwab | Russell Knox -135 over Bubba Watson | 0.75 Units to Win 0.56 | MC (+6) | T7 9-13) | Loss | -0.75 |
| RBC Heritage | Byeong Hun An -115 over Rafa Cabrera Bello | 0.75 Units to Win 0.65 | MC (+6) | MC (+1) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Memorial | Sungjae Im +100 over Billy Horschel | 1.00 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T13 (+1) | Loss | -1 |
| Memorial | Adam Hadwin -105 over Ian Poulter | 1.05 Units to Win 1.00 | T54 (+9( | MC (+5) | Win | 1 |
| Memorial | Shane Lowry +120 over Corey Conners | 0.88 Units to Win 1.00 | MC (+4) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -0.88 |
| Memorial | Lucas Glover -110 over Scottie Scheffler | 1.10 Units to Win 1.00 | T38 (+5) | T22 (+3) | Loss | -1.1 |
| 3M Open | Peter Uihlein +175 over Brian Harman | 0.50 Units to Win 0.88 | T62 (-3) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.5 |
| 3M Open | Doc Redman +100 over Russell Henley | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (+1) | MC (-1) | Loss | -0.7 |
| 3M Open | Ryan Armour +100 over Chris Kirk | 0.70 Units to Win 0.70 | MC (E) | T41 (-9) | Loss | -0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Russell Henley -110 over J.T. Poston | 0.77 Units to Win 0.70 | T9 (-16) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Cameron Davis +110 over Jhonattan Vegas | 0.64 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Sam Burns +120 over Chris Kirk | 0.58 Units to Win 0.70 | T15 (-14) | T51 (-6) | Win | 0.7 |
| Wyndham Championship | Brooks Koepka +160 over Webb Simpson | 0.65 Units to Win 1.04 | MC (+2) | T3 (-18) | Loss | -0.65 |
| Northern Trust | Ryan Palmer -115 over Chez Reavie | 0.80 Units to win 0.70 | T8 (-15) | T49 (-7) | Win | 0.7 |
| Northern Trust | Byeong Hun An -110 over Russell Henley | 0.77 Units to win 0.70 | MC (+8) | T8 (-15) | Loss | -0.77 |
| Northern Trust | Jason Day -105 over Webb Simpson | 0.74 Units to win 0.70 | MC (+3) | T6 (-16) | Loss | -0.74 |
| Tour Championship | Lanto Griffin -115 over Kevin Na | 0.80 Units to win 0.70 | T18 (-5) | T27 (+1) | Win | 0.7 |
| Tour Championship | Ryan Palmer +141 over Billy Horscehl | 0.85 Units to win 1.20 | T24 (E) | 30 (+4) | Win | 1.2 |
| Tour Championship | Justin Thomas +170 over Dustin Johnson | 0.65 Units to win 1.11 | T12 (-9) | 1 (-21) | Loss | -0.65 |
| Tour Championship | Webb Simpson +270 over Dustin Johnson | 0.45 Units to win 1.22 | T2 (-18) | 1 (-21) | Loss | -0.45 |
| U.S. Open | Patrick Cantlay -110 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.10 Units to win 1.00 | T43 (+15) | MC | Win | 1 |
| Corales Puntacana | Sam Burns +100 over Corey Conners | 0.7 Units to win 0.70 | T28 (-8) | MC (+2) | Win | 0.7 |
| Corales Puntacana | Rob Oppenheim +110 over Sam Ryder | 0.70 Units to win 0.77 | T33 (-7) | T52 (-5) | Win | 0.77 |
| Corales Puntacana | Adam Long +100 over Charles Howell III | 0.70 Units to win 0.70 | 5 (-14) | MC (E) | Win | 0.7 |
| Sanderson Farms | Hudson Swafford -110 over Rory Sabbatini | 1.25 Units to win 1.14 | MC (+2) | T12 (-13) | Loss | -1.25 |
| Bermuda Championship | Will Zalatoris -110 over Brendon Todd | 1.10 Units to win 1.00 | T16 (-8) | MC (+4) | Win | 1 |
| Masters | Matthew Wolff -110 over Tommy Fleetwood | 1.10 Units to win 1.00 | MC | T19 (-6) | Loss | -1.1 |
| Masters | Francesco Molinari +133 over Shane Lowry | 0.75 Units to win 1.00 | MC | T25 (-4) | Loss | -0.75 |
| Masters | Sebastian Munoz -102 over Billy Horschel | 1.02 Units to win 1.00 | T19 (-6) | T38 (-1) | Win | 1 |
2020 Bets That Have Finished Inside The Top-10
| Player | Event | Odds | Finish Position |
| Cameron Smith | Sony Open | 55 | 1 |
| Patrick Reed | WGC Mexico | 50 | 1 |
| Sungjae Im | Honda Classic | 35 | 1 |
| Dustin Johnson | Travelers Championship | 30 | 1 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | U.S. Open | 33 | 1 |
| Abraham Ancer | American Express | 50 | 2 |
| Abraham Ancer | RBC Heritage | 125 | 2 |
| Billy Horschel | Wyndham Championship | 33 | 2 |
| Justin Thomas | Tour Championship | 6 | 2 |
| Justin Thomas | ZOZO Championship | 12 | 2 |
| Max Homa | 3M Open | 80 | 3 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | BMW Championship | 40 | 3 |
| Bud Cauley | American Express | 110 | 4 |
| Adam Hadwin | Rocket Mortgage | 70 | 4 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Tony Finau | PGA Championship | 33 | 4 |
| Jason Day | PGA Championship | 66 | 4 |
| Joaquin Niemann | Sentry TOC | 50 | 5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | RBC Heritage | 200 | 5 |
| Justin Thomas | WGC Mexico | 11 | 6 |
| Xander Schauffele | WGC-St.Jude | 22 | 6 |
| Jon Rahm | Northern Trust | 16 | 6 |
| Charley Hoffman | Sanderson Farms | 66 | 6 |
| Kristoffer Ventura | Sanderson Farms | 80 | 6 |
| Dustin Johnson | Sentry TOC | 10 | 7 |
| Bubba Watson | CJ Cup | 100 | 7 |
| Sam Burns | Houston Open | 110 | 7 |
| Jon Rahm | Masters | 12 | 7 |
| Russell Henley | Honda Classic | 100 | 8 |
| Maverick McNealy | Rocket Mortgage | 100 | 8 |
| Tony Finau | Memorial | 66 | 8 |
| Webb Simpson | U.S. Open | 50 | 8 |
| Luke List | Corales Puntacana | 66 | 8 |
| Ryan Armour | Bermuda Championship | 150 | 8 |
| Patrick Reed | Wyndham Championship | 16 | 9 |
| Xander Schauffele | ZOZO Championship | 25 | 10 |
| Andrew Putnam | American Express | 66 | 10 |
| Dustin Johnson | Genesis Invitational | 15 | 10 |
| Xander Schauffele | PGA Championship | 35 | 10 |
| Webb Simpson | Masters | 60 | 10 |
Yearly Record:
2017 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (10-2-2) +8.025 Units
Outright Winners (5)
Dustin Johnson Genesis Open (10/1)
Sergio Garcia Masters (50/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open (45/1)
Justin Thomas PGA Championship (35/1)
Dustin Johnson Northern Trust (14/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+54.255) 194.22% ROI
2018 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (37-18-2) +26.74 Units
Outright Winners (6)
Phil Mickelson WGC-Mexico (22/1)
Bubba Watson WGC- Match Play (45/1)
Brooks Koepka U.S. Open In-Play Wager (14/1)
Dustin Johnson RBC Canadian Open (7/1)
Justin Thomas WGC-Bridgestone (30/1)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+55.98) 51.80% ROI
2019 Golf Betting:
Premium Head to Head Bets (16-8-2) +8.48 Units
Outright Winners (4)
Matt Kuchar Mayakoba Golf Classic (66/1)
Corey Conners Valero Texas Open (200/1)
Rory McIlroy RBC Canadian Open (10/1)
Brooks Koepka WGC- St. Jude Classic (12/1)
Rory McIlroy Tour Championship (8/1)
Overall Units Won Total (+27.743) 40.70% ROI
Career Record (Excluding 2020 Season Results)
Head to Head Bets (72-35-6) +40.995 Units
Outright Winners (15)
Top 5s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 16
2019 - 26
Top 10s (Didn't Track in 2017)
2018 - 31
2019 - 41
Win Big With RotoBaller
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