X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

NL Outfielders Ready to Break Out in 2021

Matt Wallach evaluates National League outfielders ready to break out in 2021 for fantasy baseball. These young outfielders are strong draft targets.

The top of the outfield class this year is lined with studs. It's hard to go wrong with any of the top-ten or so outfielders in drafts, but after that, it gets a little bit shakier. Players with risky profiles, small sample size success stories, bounceback candidates, and plenty of youngsters make up a lot of the other outfielders for managers to select from. That effect is even more substantial when things are broken down between the National and American Leagues.

That doesn't mean that there isn't upside to find deeper in the draft pools. Let's look at four National League outfielders who appear ready to break out in 2021. The players under consideration and that we'll take a look at today are Dylan Carlson, Nick Senzel, Alex Dickerson, and Cristian Pache.

These four players all have had limited amounts of opportunities thus far in their Major League careers, but have profiles that suggest they can be quite useful for fantasy purposes in the near future. Let's get into it.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Dylan Carlson, St. Louis Cardinals

Carlson comes into the 2021 season as one of the top prospects in baseball. He made his Major League debut in 2020, receiving 119 plate appearances. Things didn't go all that well, as he produced a .200/.252/.364 slash line. That rough performance has driven his draft day cost down coming into the new season, as a lot of fantasy managers get turned off when top prospects come up and don't produce right away, which often leaves the player undervalued the next year.

It's important to remember the type of profile Carlson has and what makes him such a good prospect. He has a good hit tool, good speed, and the potential for some power upside, three things that should play well in fantasy baseball. There is a bet to be made that Carlson to push 20+ home runs and double-digit steals, all with a good batting average. One factor holding him back, besides the rough start in 2020, was playing time. However, the Cardinals remedied that by moving Dexter Fowler to the Angels, and all indications now point to Carlson starting in the outfield every day for the Cardinals this year.

It was a brief debut for Carlson in 2020, but it's still worth talking about. Statcast seems to believe that Carlson experienced some bad luck. With all the sample size caveats kept in consideration, Carlson was actually above-average in a good amount of the most important metrics, with a 9.2% barrel rate, which is much better than the 6.4% league-average. Ditto for his 42.1% hard-hit rate compared to the 34.9% league-average rate. That combination led to Carlson ending up with a .401 xwOBA on contact last year, despite the ugly triple slash, which does suggest that Carlson did hit the ball better than the results would suggest.

It's not all great though, as Carlson did strike out nearly 30% of the time last year and walked just 6.7% of the time. If he can manage to walk and strikeout close to his minor league numbers (around 11% and 20%, respectively), it would go a long way towards Carlson reaching his potential. It's something to keep track of over the course of the season, but for drafts, with an ADP of around pick 150, Carlson has the potential to be a very profitable player.

 

Nick Senzel, Cincinnati Reds

This will be the third season that Senzel will be a part of. The former top prospect hasn't quite made an impact at the Major League, for various reasons. Some of it is due to his injury issues, some due to underperformance, and some due to playing time issues, due to the free-agent signings made by the Reds prior to the 2019 season. However, a look at the Reds roster for 2021 shows plenty of opportunities for Senzel to slot in. He could be their centerfielder depending on how things go with Shogo Akiyama, who failed to impress in an admittedly brief first season in the US. Senzel could also theoretically play shortstop, although the team has been hesitant to do that in the past, but could end up doing so out of necessity considering Kyle Farmer is the projected starter there right now. Senzel could also fill something of an "everyday utility player" role, where he plays most games at different positions. Either way, there should be plenty of opportunities for Senzel to finally show what he can do.

Remembering his prospect profile, his carrying tool was his hit tool, but he also had above-average power and speed tools, which is what makes him so intriguing. Senzel could be the type of player who goes 20-20, and with a positive batting average. He showed that off during the 2019 season, as he managed 12 home runs and 14 stolen bases in just 404 plate appearances. In his shortened 2020 season, Senzel was still fast with 97th percentile sprint speed per Statcast, but he didn't do much else offensively. However, he did manage to lower his groundball rate to 39.3% and cut his strikeout rate down to 19.2%. Take it with a grain of salt due to it being in just 78 plate appearances, but it at least is something to like in an otherwise disastrous season.

Overall, with an ADP around pick 280, Senzel is most likely going to be a late-round dart throw in most drafts. There is little risk in such a late-round draft pick, but Senzel, with consistent health and playing time, has strong breakout upside.

 

Alex Dickerson, San Francisco Giants

2020 was the second season now for Dickerson in which he impressed, albeit in limited opportunities. Still, he did have an underrated and underappreciated 2020 season that may carry over into this season. For Dickerson, his .298/.371/576 triple slash last year was the product of hitting the ball harder. He set new career-highs in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate, all three of which stand out compared to the rest of the league, as Dickerson is well above-average in all three metrics.

Additionally, Dickerson is quite good at hitting his fly balls and line-drives hard, which is ultimately most important, as those are the batted-balls that lead to the best results. From 2019 to 2020, Dickerson's average exit velocity on those two batted-ball types is 93.5 miles-per-hour, a three-mile-per-hour improvement on his overall average exit velocity mark in the same span. Dickerson has shown great hitting ability in the last two seasons, albeit they came in brief samples. However, the projections for Dickerson this year do look quite good. The Bat X, a projection system that incorporates more elements of Statcast projects Dickerson for a 116 wRC+, a .342 wOBA, a .205 isolated power mark with 19 home runs and 65 runs batted in over 495 plate appearances. That's an extremely solid player, and one that should pay off for fantasy managers drafting him at his current ADP in the area of pick 330.

The biggest drawback to Dickerson though is that he is not likely to be an everyday player, considering his struggles against left-handed pitchers in his career. For his career, Dickerson has a 127 wRC+ against righties compared to an 86 mark against southpaws. Because of this, it is likely that Dickerson will be the strong half of a platoon in the Giants outfield. He should still get plenty of plate appearances, and those opportunities should come in the middle of the order where he'll have many chances to drive in and score runs, but ultimately, his overall fantasy impact will be lower than other options just due to being a platoon player. However, based on the projections, Dickerson should be productive in the playing time he does get, and at a low ADP, he should be quite good for the Giants and fantasy players this year.

 

Cristian Pache, Atlanta Braves

One of the game's top prospects, Pache did make his Major League debut last season, receiving a whole four plate appearances for the Braves in the regular season, but he was also in the lineup for the Braves during their postseason run. Pache comes into this season in a battle for the Braves' starting centerfielder spot, and if he wins the job outright will determine his fantasy use this season, for obvious reason. His main competition for the spot is veteran Ender Inciarte, whom the team may prefer due to his perhaps more reliable, although not spectacular profile.

The speed is what makes Pache so intriguing. His bat is not his carrying tool, but rather his elite defense and speed. While not a relevant fantasy category, his defense is still important because it will keep him in the lineup, and the stolen base upside will always make him an intriguing name for fantasy purposes. A peak season for Pache in the future would include at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases, but that shouldn't be expected right away.

However, that doesn't mean that Pache can't be fantasy-relevant. While his bat may not be fully developed, he shouldn't be a drag in the batting average department right now, although not a plus, but the projections do peg him for somewhere in the neighborhood of 13 home runs and 10 steals, right now, which would be quite nice and helpful. His prospect profile leaves him a bit under the radar in terms of fantasy value, especially with an everyday role not yet his, but with him going around pick 400 in drafts thus far, Pache would be an excellent late-round outfielder, as he has upside to dream on. Monitor the playing time situation this spring, as him being named the starter would likely send his ADP skyrocketing, and you don't want to miss out on those juicy stolen bases.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jaylen Waddle

Good to Go For Thursday Night Football
Tucker Kraft

Suffers "Little Knee Tweak," Checks Out OK
Jaylen Waddle

Expected to Play and be a "Big Factor" on Thursday Night
Tucker Kraft

Suffers Knee Injury During Thursday's Practice
Clayton Kershaw

Will Retire at the End of the Season
Malcolm Brogdon

Landry Shamet and Malcolm Brogdon Both Staying with the Knicks?
Detroit Pistons

Charles Bediako Agrees to a Training Camp Deal with Detroit
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery, Uncertain for Training Camp
Charlotte Hornets

DaQuan Jeffries Waived by the Hornets
CFB

Eric Singleton Jr. Questionable For Saturday
Braden Schneider

Limited in Training Camp
Lars Eller

Recovering From Abdominal Procedure
Nick Jensen

in Danger of Missing Start of Season
Brandon Montour

to Miss Two Weeks After Ankle Surgery
Gabriel Landeskog

a "Full Go" for the Season
Samuel Girard

Avalanche Hope to Have Samuel Girard Available for Start of Season
Mackenzie Blackwood

Out Week-to-Week
Alex Tuch

Day-to-Day With Undisclosed Injury
Jordan Greenway

to Sit Out Training Camp
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Considered Day-to-Day
Simon Edvinsson

to Miss a Couple of Weeks
Mikael Backlund

Signs Two-Year Extension
Connor Ingram

to Be Waived by Mammoth
Zach Hyman

Misses Start of Training Camp
Nick Paul

Out Until November
Kris Letang

Cleared for Training Camp
David Pastrnak

Out for Start of Training Camp
Matthew Tkachuk

Expected to Be Out Until December
NBA

Trevelin Queen Joins Chinese Team
Damian Lillard

Not Rushing His Return
Brooklyn Nets

Keon Johnson Waived by Nets
Justin Verlander

Plans to Pitch in 2026
Junior Caminero

Day-to-Day With Back Tightness
Will Smith

Won't Return When First Eligible
Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
Tyler Warren

Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
CFB

LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
CFB

Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

Signs New Two-Way Deal With Knicks
Matt Ryan

Returns to Knicks on Exhibit 10 Contract
New York Knicks

Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
Jayden Reed

Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
Bo Bichette

to Miss Rest of Regular Season
Zach Neto

Placed on 10-Day Injured List With Hand Injury
Yordan Alvarez

Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
CFB

Diego Pavia Refutes Report of Seeking Seventh Collegiate Season
Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
CFB

Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
CFB

Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

has Short-Term Knee Injury, Could Return for Postseason
Tosan Evbuomwan

Joins Knicks
NBA

Kai Jones Links Up With EuroLeague Team
Bismack Biyombo

Returns to Spurs
Bones Hyland

Rejoins Timberwolves
Kobe Bufkin

Moves to Brooklyn
Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

Officially Active on Monday Night
Jauan Jennings

Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
CBJ

Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Aaron Jones Sr.

Unlikely to Play in Week 3 Due to Hamstring Injury
Diego Lopes

Returns To The Win Column
Jayden Daniels

' Week 3 Status in Doubt
Rob Font

Outclassed In The Noche UFC 3 Co-Main Event
David Martinez

Wins His Second UFC Fight
Jared Gordon

Suffers Brutal TKO Loss At Noche UFC 3
Rafa Garcia

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Brian Thomas Jr.

Dealing with Wrist Injury
Dustin Stoltzfus

Drops A Decision At Noche UFC 3
Kelvin Gastelum

Gets Back In The Win Column
Diego Ferreira

Suffers Second-Round TKO
Alexander Hernandez

Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
Quang Le

Suffers First-Round Knockout
Santiago Luna

Shines In His UFC Debut
Christopher Bell

Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
Alex Bowman

Falls Short of Advancing Through Cup Series Playoffs
Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Ryan Blaney

Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
Corey Heim

Earns his First Career Cup Series Top-10 Finish at Bristol
Giannis Antetokounmpo

Leads Greece to Bronze Medal
Alperen Sengün

Alperen Sengun Drops 28 Points in EuroBasket Finals
CFB

Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
Dennis Schröder

Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Ty Gibbs

Has Arguably his Best Career Drive, but Only Finishes 10th
Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

Misses Round of 12 After Extremely Mediocre Bristol Run
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

Finishes Last in All Three Round of 16 Races to Fail to Advance
CFB

Ryan Williams Explodes In Return To Field
CFB

Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
CFB

LaNorris Sellers Exits Game In Blowout Loss
CFB

DJ Lagway Tosses Five Interceptions In Loss
CFB

Garrett Nussmeier Plays Game Manager in Saturday's Win
CFB

CJ Carr Remains Poised In Narrow Loss
CFB

John Mateer Leads Oklahoma In Rout
CFB

Arch Manning Struggles Against UTEP
CFB

Jeremiah Smith Impresses In Win
CFB

Sam Leavitt Shines As Arizona State Rebounds From Week 2 Loss
Chris Buescher

May have Another Solid Run at Bristol
Kyle Busch

Should DFS Managers Roster Kyle Busch at Bristol?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Too Risky to Consider Rostering at Bristol?
Michael McDowell

Could be A Solid Value Option For Bristol DFS Lineups
Chase Elliott

Probably Won't Factor in for Bristol Win
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
Austin Dillon

Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
Justin Haley

Bristol One of Justin Haley's Few Recent Bright Spots
CFB

Austin Simmons Listed As Game-Time Decision Against Arkansas
CFB

Nico Iamaleava Struggles In Fourth Straight Loss

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP