RADIO
Frankie Soler analyzes Week 12 of NFL action and breaks down the fantasy football implications for Week 13 including injuries, breakouts, top performers & fantasy football scoring surprises.
It's Almost Playoffs Time - Are You Ready?
With most leagues entering the final week of the regular season in Week 13, this week’s recap is going to focus largely on injuries and what to do with lineup decisions heading into the home stretch. I'll throw in some keeper/dynasty league tidbits whenever applicable, but for the most part, it’s time to start thinking almost exclusively about your run through the fantasy playoffs.
Since the trade deadline has already passed in the majority of leagues, you should be set with a solid stud lineup if you're still reading this after Week 12. To win in the playoffs, you should avoid any tinkering whatsoever. Don't overthink lineup decisions-- dance with who brung ya, as the adage goes. That said, I hope you've managed to survive the dreaded injury bug this late into the season.
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Fortunately, there weren't any serious new injuries to report after Sunday’s Week 12 action. A pair of running backs left their respective games in Marshawn Lynch and Ryan Mathews. Both were able to return, so neither ailment is believed to be series. In the case of Lynch, it appeared as if his back was troubling him again. He's a tough player, as evidenced by his ability to continue to play through pain. He’s a guy you always need to monitor closely, but he typically suits back up and returns to the field. As for Ryan Mathews, what can I tell you? He’s made of glass. Mathews gets hurt seemingly every year, and he never performs up to expectations anyway. He had a solid year for sure in 2013, and he actually did have a nice showing against the Rams this week, but he’s extremely difficult to trust. This is a player whom you just have to accept you might be without for a few weeks.
Week 12 grew progressively more exciting as the day went along-- the early games started out pretty slow, then the later group picked up the pace nicely, while late game was the standout of the day. Let's take a look at when went down in the fantasy universe on Sunday.
Week 12 Game-by-Game Analysis & Fantasy Playoffs Prep
Chiefs @ Raiders
In what was one of the most comical ends to a game anyone has ever seen, the Oakland Raiders finally picked up their first victory Thursday night against the Chiefs. The Raiders came amazingly close to blowing this game on a ridiculous never-ending celebratory sack with roughly 20 seconds to go. Everyone on the planet has seen the video of this sequence a dozen times by now, so let’s just move right along to the fantasy impact of this game. How about Latavius Murray, huh? It only took 12 weeks, but the Raiders finally found their answer on the ground… until he suffered a concussion, of course. It was a real shame to see Murray exit this game after completely tearing up the Chiefs for 112 yards on just four carries. The Chiefs hadn’t allowed a single rushing touchdown to an opposing offense prior to Thursday night, yet they allowed two to Murray. It’s amazing how teams can go so long without realizing their best player at running back has been sitting on the bench the whole time. Leave it to the Raiders. Murray is by far this week’s number one add, and he should be treated as a borderline RB2 should he suit up for next week’s game against the Rams. The Rams have improved their rushing defense, despite what you saw out of Ryan Mathews this week, so it’ll depend on your roster construction when it comes to starting Murray.
What do you want to hear about the Chiefs? You don’t need me to remind you that Jamaal Charles is a stud and that anyone not named Travis Kelce isn't worth rostering in the passing game. Next.
Bengals @ Texans
As expected, the Jeremy Hill/Giovani Bernard situation was as murky as could be. Hill and Bernard ended the day with the same exact amount of touches at 19 a piece. Hill ended up with one more carry than Bernard. Look, I know that if you drafted Bernard to be your RB2 you're probably stuck with him unless you've hit the jackpot on the waiver wire, but otherwise this is already a situation to avoid, if at all possible. The two backs will continue to split time as we head into the fantasy playoffs, and you really don't want to have to rely on a guy that is only going to get 50% of the touches. A.J. Green had a solid game here with 12 catches for 121 yards, but the sole receiving touchdown went to Mohamed Sanu.
Arian Foster missed this game for the Texans, leaving Alfred Blue to start for the second consecutive week. I like Blue as a dynasty league stash, given his abilities and potential as a future starting running back. It wasn't as clear as it was last week as Blue ended the day with just 66 total yards, but I still like where his career is headed. It appears that Ryan Mallett came out of this game with a pectoral injury, which will be monitored as the week progresses. I don't think this changes anything as far as Texans wide receivers are concerned. DeAndre Hopkins has surpassed Andre Johnson at this point, and that’s all you need to worry about.
Titans @ Eagles
Just when it looked as if LeSean McCoy was ready for his big breakout game of the season, the Eagles went right back to Darren Sproles for the touchdown. Granted, McCoy did still end the day with 130 yards and a TD of his own, but his numbers could have actually been even better had the Eagles not force-fed Sproles again. I really don’t understand the logic behind Chip Kelly’s run game, but they're winning games, so what do I know? McCoy is still poised to finish the year strong even with the slow start, so I'd happily ride it out with McCoy heading into the playoffs. I’d actually even cut ties with Sproles unless I owned McCoy. Barring a McCoy injury, there’s virtually no reason to own or start Sproles in a playoff matchup, so why bother? I’d much rather have my OWN handcuff if I own, say, DeMarco Murray or Jamaal Charles. Even if you’re thinking about starting Sproles at FLEX, there are plenty of wide receivers I'd prefer.
As far as the Titans are concerned, Delanie Walker is back to being a top 10 tight end after returning from his concussion. Walker amassed 155 yards, which is a boatload for a tight end who has Zach Mettenberger throwing to him. Remember when people thought Bishop Sankey could be a usable RB2? Ha!
Jaguars @ Colts
This game was actually closer than the final score indicated, with the Jaguars hanging with the Colts for the majority of the first half. It took a huge 73-yard touchdown pass to T.Y. Hilton to solidify the lead in the third quarter for Indianapolis. Hilton has emerged as the clear number one receiver in Indy, much to the chagrin of those who believed in a bounceback year for Reggie Wayne, myself included. Wayne is droppable at this point, if he wasn’t already. If you've managed to scrape by starting Reggie Wayne, then your team must be loaded or you’re performing well beyond your means. Before getting to the Jags, can we take a moment to pour some out for the Trent Richardson Experiment? I know he got the touchdown in this game, but the man we will now refer to as Dan “Boom” Herron out-gained him in his first game as a starter. That’s sad for Richardson, a guy who couldn't even outrun old and beat-up Ahmad Bradshaw. It’s game over for Richardson; I just don’t see any way he'll ever be the player he was his rookie season.
Denard Robinson finally had himself a bad game after several in a row as the Jacksonville offense struggled mightily all day. There was even a Toby Gerhart sighting in the hopes that a different look would ignite the offense, but no such luck. Blake Bortles looked rough out there, and he was beaten up by Indy’s pass rush all game. I had mentioned that I liked both Cecil Shorts and Allen Hurns in this game, but that was contingent upon Bortles actually being able to get them the ball. Silly me for making such an assumption.
Packers @ Vikings
The Vikings came to play here in a contest many expected the Packers to run away with easily. This ended up being a three-point game that saw Eddie Lacy rack up 125 yards on the ground. Congratulations to you if you hung tough with Lacy. These types of games are definitely within his skillset, and being on a potent offense like that of the Packers certainly helps. The touchdown drought finally struck both Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb in the same week, but what are you gonna do? Bench 'em? Of course not.
2014’s version of Lamar Miller (Cordarrelle Patterson) left this game with what was described as both a knee and an ankle injury. I call him 2014’s Lamar Miller because of all the unmaterialized hype that surrounded him heading into this season. If he’s anything like Miller, he’ll have a solid year in 2015 as soon as everyone’s forgotten about him. In all seriousness though, it’s unclear how severe Patterson’s injuries are, but I can’t imagine you’re even still holding on to him at this point.
Lions @ Patriots
So last week we were treated Jonas Gray's coming-out party, which I happily declared would be a one-week occurrence. Coincidentally, the Steelers released LeGarrette Blount, who then returned to the Patriots and put up 78 yards and two touchdowns against Detroit. You can't make this stuff up folks. The Patriots hate committing to one running back. It certainly helps that Jonas Gray was late to a team meeting and got sent home, but that doesn’t really change anything for me. The Pats always switch up their ground game, which is why I never bought into Gray in the first place. I’m not starting any Patriots running back in a playoff matchup if I can help it, and neither should you.
If I own Calvin Johnson I am officially nervous heading into the playoffs. I know most leagues trade deadlines have passed by now, but if yours hasn’t, trade Megatron for as much as you can get. It’s not his fault at all, as he’s been fully healthy for two weeks now; I just don’t trust Matthew Stafford anymore. Stafford has regressed so far in his sixth year as a starter that he’s running on fourth and ten and sliding a yard-and-a-half short of the first down marker. Not good, not good at all. I think he’s regressed all the way to the middle of the pack as far as starting QBs are concerned. If you’ve gotten this far with Stafford, I’d be looking elsewhere for a starter come playoff time. Weighing the matchups between guys like Ryan Tannehill, Mark Sanchez and even Zach Mettenberger might be worth it.
Buccaneers @ Bears
The Chicago offense continues to frustrate, as the only player to truly show up this week was Matt Forte. That’s what you get with the Bears: one week it’s Forte, another it’ll be Marshall. Alshon Jeffery sort of bailed you out with a touchdown here, but that was pretty much it as far as the passing game was concerned. I doubt you have better options than Jeffery at this point (Kelvin Benjamin? Odell Beckham? Mike Evans?), so you're probably stuck with him in your lineup. He’s a guy that is absolutely worth benching should you have had enough luck to grab a guy late or off waivers.
Doug Martin returned to the lineup for the Buccaneers but honestly, does anyone even need Doug Martin for fantasy purposes at this point? If you've been waiting around for Martin to help your team out this late into the season, you’ve already lost. This rushing attack has unfortunately turned into another situation to avoid with Martin, Sims and Rainey all underperforming. None is worth rostering heading into the playoffs, but I do like Sims as a potential dynasty target. If I had to rank the three, it would go Sims, Rainey, Martin. I would bet Martin isn't even on the team next year, nor should he be.
Browns @ Falcons
Believe it or not, this was actually the most exciting of the first batch of games, with the Cleveland Browns pulling out the W on a last-second field goal. This game marked the return of Josh Gordon, who proved to be a huge boost to the Cleveland passing attack, ending the day with 120 yards on eight receptions. There was some chatter about easing Gordon back into the offense, but hopefully you didn’t buy into any of that nonsense and started him anyway. If Brian Hoyer was any better, Gordon would have had an even bigger day, as he was actually targeted 16 teams. Gordon is a stud, and if you’ve managed to hang on to him all the way up to the playoff push, kudos to you, you’ve earned it. The Browns released Ben Tate last week, giving us some clarity in the rushing game. Isaiah Crowell was the starter, and he ended the day with the most rushing yards and two touchdowns, despite Terrance West receiving some rub as well. I prefer Crowell to West going forward, and I have no problem using him as an RB2 in my playoff matchups.
Julio Jones finally found himself the endzone for the first time since Week 3, which is a crazy drought given his talent. Roddy White continued his second-half turnaround with nine receptions for 96 yards. Somehow, the Falcons could still end up in first place should the Saints lose their Monday Night Football matchup with the Ravens, so there is still plenty to play for in Atlanta. I like Roddy as a low-end WR2 and Julio as a risky low-end WR1 the rest of the way.
Rams @ Chargers
I actually kind of feel bad for the Rams; they could have won this game had Shaun Hill not thrown a disastrous late interception that sealed their fate. The Chargers have been known to evaporate in the second half of the year, so I was half-expecting them to blow this game anyway. Nevertheless, they pulled it out, thanks to big games out of both Ryan Mathews and Keenan Allen. We’ve already discussed the unreliable Mathews, and Allen’s performance is kind of a throwaway. He has struggled all year, which is one of the biggest disappointments of the 2014 fantasy season. I’d be cautious about holding on to him in a keeper league, as I'd imagine you could find better options. I would much rather take a chance on a guy like Isaiah Crowell as a late-round pickup than someone like Allen who is essentially burning a keeper spot with his inconsistent play.
Cardinals @ Seahawks
If you happen to be the type of person who likes to indulge in such activities, this would have been the ideal “under” pick of the week. The lack of potent offense out there leaves us little to discuss. We already touched on Lynch's struggles to stay in this game due to his back flare-up, so you kind of just have to hope he bounces back next week. I don’t like anyone in the Seattle passing game, so it’s no surprise at all that Russell Wilson rushed for 73 yards.
As for the Cardinals, Andre Ellington remained the only reliable fantasy option, totaling 81 yards on 15 touches. He didn’t find the endzone, and he didn’t have a monster game by any means, but he’s solid enough to roll with heading into the playoffs-- just don’t expect any sort of monster performance. He’s solid, and solid is all you need out of an RB2 these days. He does have some tough matchups, however, with the Chiefs, Rams and Seahawks right after his cakewalk game against the Falcons. Larry Fitzgerald missed this game, leaving Michael Floyd and John Brown to carry the load at wide receiver. Neither did anything noteworthy, which could be attributed to either the matchup with Seattle or the fact that this team simply does not have a reliable fantasy receiver. I tend to lean toward the latter, which is why I’m not confident starting any Arizona receiver unless absolutely necessary.
Dolphins @ Broncos
Apparently the Miami Dolphins are good? Maybe? I know they've been better this year after narrowly missing the playoffs last year, but I don’t think anyone expected them to lead for a majority of the time against a potent Denver offense. The Dolphins utilized a balanced offensive attack to hang with the Broncos, specifically getting Jarvis Landry involved and into the endzone twice. I wouldn’t expect that trend to continu, as Mike Wallace is the sole wide receiver worth owning and starting in Miami. For whatever reason, the Dolphins still cling to Daniel Thomas like he’s some sort of precious metal. He vultured away a touchdown from Lamar Miller, which is a real shame given the year Miller is having.
As for the Broncos, Julius Thomas was out after suffering an ankle injury last week, allowing for Demaryius Thomas to hoard in three touchdowns on 87 yards. Demaryius surpassed Antonio Brown for the league lead in receiving yards on the season, but that’s kind of a skewed stat given that Antonio was on a bye this week. Either way, whichever guy you own I’m sure you’re plenty happy this year. Emmanuel Sanders ended up playing after suffering a vicious hit the previous week, and he ended the day with 125 yards on nine receptions. He’s been a surefire WR1 this year, and is absolutely a solid keeper if you drafted him at a decent price. The biggest takeaway from this game was the play of running back C.J. Anderson. If you were lucky enough to grab and start Anderson this week, rejoice, because no one has any idea what this backfield is going to look like once Ronnie Hillman and/or Montee Ball returns. I will say, however, that Ball should be the third man in the rotation regardless of who the starter is. In the games Ball has missed, both Hillman and Anderson have outperformed his established baseline. None of these running backs is a keeper lock, given that we don’t even know who the starter is going to be in Week 16, let alone in 2015. This is a murky situation, and one I want no part of in a keeper format, despite the obvious production from starters not named Montee Ball.
Redskins @ 49ers
Many expected this contest to be a blowout, and with good reason. Redskins Head Coach Jay Gruden had indicated that RGIII would be on a short leash in this game, but fortunately for Griffin, he managed to keep it together. Washington’s passing offense did struggle, but they leaned on Alfred Morris and his 125 yards on 21 attempts. I’ve always been iffy on Morris, but I can’t ignore the facts: he’s been a high-end RB2 the entire year, and that shouldn’t change the rest of the year. Playmaker DeSean Jackson was held in check by San Francisco, but I’m still rolling the dice with him as my WR2/FLEX. It only takes one play for this guy to prove he’s worth a start any given week.
The Redskins defense is what kept them in this game, holding the 49ers to 17 points despite letting Anquan Boldin beat them for 137 yards. I’ve mentioned before that I don’t particularly like anyone in the 49ers receiving corps, given how unreliable they are as a group. I suppose Boldin is the most consistent of the bunch, but eh-- there are plenty of guys I like better than him.
Cowboys @ Giants
Holy Odell Beckham Jr. Batman, did you see that catch? Of course you did-- EVERYONE saw it. In fact, we are all going to be seeing Beckham’s absurd three-finger grab for the rest of our natural lives, because it was most likely the greatest catch in NFL history. That might be hyperbole, but it’s hard to argue that it might have been the most athletic grab in NFL history. If you managed to pick up Beckham in a long-term format, congratulations on winning the lottery. He is undoubtedly the hottest keeper commodity right now, and he's well on his way to being a top five WR. He has that kind of talent, for sure.
It wasn’t all positive for the Giants, though, as they lost this game on a late touchdown pass to Dez Bryant. This was a play where Tony Romo had enough time to make himself a sandwich and save 15% or more on his car insurance by switching to Geico before throwing the ball. The Dallas O-line did its job all night, which just goes to show you why DeMarco Murray is having the year he’s having. That line is one of the best in the league, and it shows. Murray ended up with another 100+ yard day. For weeks, I've expected Murray to get hurt given this workload and his injury history, but he continues to prove me wrong. If you’ve been riding the DeMarco Murray horse all the way to the playoffs, you are a braver soul than I, and I hope for your sake he doesn't injure himself in your championship week.
One last week of the fantasy regular season to go, RotoBallers, so good luck locking up those playoff spots.
