Fantasy Football Offense Risers: Sleepers and Draft Targets from Improving Offenses (2025)

Patrick's analysis improving fantasy football offenses to identify potential sleepers and value picks in 2025 drafts. His offenses on the rise, including the Houston Texans.

Fantasy football, like the game it's meant to emulate, is all about scoring points. Tapping into the right offensive environment at the right time is what leads to guys like 2023 Raheem Mostert or 2024 Baker Mayfield becoming every-week starters after barely being drafted.

The trick, of course, is staying ahead of the curve, because change in the NFL doesn't always come with a flashing red arrow. The coaching staff shuffles, schemes evolve, and roster turnover occurs quickly.

Entering the 2025 season, offenses around the league have put in work to rebuild their foundation or add to existing strengths, and several are notably on the rise. While they may not all be fantasy juggernauts just yet, these five NFL offenses are trending up, and smart drafters will want to start grabbing pieces from them before the market catches up.

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Houston Texans

C.J. Stroud already looked like a seasoned vet by the end of his 2023 rookie year. Things did not look nearly as smooth in his sophomore campaign, despite his respectable effort to drag a bottom-tier offensive line and banged-up receiving corps to the playoffs. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik's playcalling became predictable, his blocking schemes were ineffective, and he took the ability to make adjustments out of his quarterback's hands.

That era is over. Slowik's reluctance to throw on early downs was baffling in real time, but even more maddening when remembering that Stroud was the highest-rated first-down passer in the league as a rookie.

The Texans have handed the keys to first-time coordinator Nick Caley, a rising mind who spent years marinating in New England and Los Angeles under Josh McDaniels and Sean McVay. If Caley can bring even a dash of creativity and forward-thinking playcalling to Houston, Stroud will thrive in an offense tailor-made to his strengths as an anticipatory pocket passer with full-field vision.

CJ Stroud on Nick Caley:

“I buy into people, I really don’t buy into system.”

“He has probably the most juice I’ve seen in my life (⏸️).”

“He calls me a lot. I don’t always answer cuz he always yelling & stuff” 🤣

“I love Nick & he’s doing a great job.” pic.twitter.com/4oFCz3hIGE

— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter) June 10, 2025

The offensive line underwent significant changes this offseason. While it remains to be seen whether any marked improvement has actually been made, the thought internally seems to be that whatever work-in-progress the team trots out in 2025 can't be any worse than the turnstile taking the field last year.

The combination most frequently seen taking reps in front of Stroud early in camp has been Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Jake Andrews, Tytus Howard, and Aireontae Ersery. While that group lacks some of the name recognition lost with the departures of Laremy Tunsil, Shaq Mason, and Kenyon Green, reports have indicated that the unit is gelling well under newly promoted offensive line coach Cole Popovich.

After seeing their wide receiver room dismantled by injury last year, the Texans spent Day 2 draft picks on Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. Higgins can win vertically and outside the numbers, while Noel brings a twitchy yards-after-catch profile that complements the bigger-bodied Higgins and Nico Collins and potentially fills the void left by Tank Dell.

Free agent acquisition Christian Kirk is also in the mix, and while he's spent the better part of the last two seasons limping around Jacksonville, he's still only 28 years old with multiple 1,000-yard campaigns under his belt.

While recent rumblings about Joe Mixon's availability to start the year shouldn't be ignored, it's worth recalling that the rarely remarkable Devin Singletary was the team's leading rusher in 2023 when the Texans offense was flirting with top-10 status. While Texans fans and fantasy drafters alike would feel better about a clean bill of health from Mixon, there are at least contingency plans in place to keep the run game from stalling out.

Between whatever's left of Nick Chubb and the hard, balanced running of newcomer Woody Marks, there should be enough to keep defenses on their heels. If the revamped offensive line is able to hold up, and Caley truly possesses the offensive mind that's been the buzz of the league through the last few hiring cycles, Stroud and the Texans' passing game should be able to excite, both in real life and fantasy.

Las Vegas Raiders

One of fantasy football's most underreported narratives could end up becoming one of its most important in 2025: Geno Smith, when playing indoors, is an entirely different quarterback.

While he was knocked for his hand size coming into the league, his splits when playing indoors or out never quite reached the water-cooler-level of attention of the similarly small-handed Jared Goff, perhaps due to the smaller sample size of indoor games accrued playing in New Jersey and the Pacific Northwest. That should be set to change with Geno's move to Las Vegas and the indoor confines of Allegiant Stadium.

Over the past three seasons, Geno has played just over a quarter of his games indoors, and in those games, his touchdown percentage has shot up from 3.6% to 6.4%, his interception rate dropped from 2.5% to 1.1%, and he has scored an additional 8.6 fantasy points per game.

All of this is news to drafters' ears when looking at Vegas' incredibly favorable 2025 schedule. In addition to their nine home games at Allegiant Stadium, the Raiders play road games against the Texans, Colts, and Chargers, meaning 12 of their 17 games will be played under a dome or retractable roof.

Architecture aside, the Raiders' coaching and weaponry have also seen massive improvements, and the team will look considerably different from the one that managed to score 20 points only once following their Week 10 bye.

New head coach Pete Carroll, the man at the helm of Geno's first career resurgence, brings his trademark energy to Vegas, and after eight seasons away from the NFL, Chip Kelly returns to lead an offense that fits his new QB like a Tupperware lid. In his last three seasons in Seattle, Geno's Seahawks have finished fourth, fourth, and fifth in No-Huddle Rate across the NFL, and he's now been intentionally targeted to run Kelly's famously up-tempo offense.

Kelly's system is built on speed, rhythm, and spacing concepts, all of which play to Geno's strengths as a big-brained processor with underrated arm talent and just enough mobility to punish defenses that forget he can move.

In Brock Bowers, Jakobi Meyers, and rookie Jack Bech, Kelly has a trio of pass catchers who might not always match the glitz and glamour of the city in which they play. Still, they get open quickly, don't waste steps or energy, and rarely let a catchable ball touch the ground. In fourth-rounder Dont'e Thornton Jr., Carroll may have found a discount DK Metcalf, who, at the very least, will keep safeties honest and allow Bowers and co. to work the middle of the field.

Overall, it's a low-flash, high-function group built to move the chains and keep things on schedule. But if it's bright lights and razzle-dazzle that you covet, look no further than first-round rookie running back Ashton Jeanty. With all the pizazz of a Vegas showman, he seems capable of vanishing into a puff of smoke any time he hits a scrum, only to reappear 30 yards downfield.

Ashton Jeanty, receiving threat 👀

3-down back: The #Raiders rookie RB has gotten rave reviews from coaches as a 'natural catcher' through camp. Chip Kelly has sent Jeanty on routes out of the backfield and lined up on the LOS as a wideout. Jeanty played some WR in high school. pic.twitter.com/ZZKYi0vpre

— Nick Walters (@nickwalt) July 31, 2025

Jeanty is the perfect backfield weapon for a Kelly offense – a do-it-all satellite back with hard-to-comprehend contact balance, soft hands, and borderline elite vision. With defenses forced to honor his presence, the Raiders' offense will have no shortage of wide-open space with which to work. Think Mojave Desert… but under a roof.

Tennessee Titans

The Tennessee Titans finished the 2024 season in the bottom seven of the NFL in terms of yards and points per game. While nobody is going to mistake this year's iteration of their offense for the Lions or Ravens, they've done just enough this offseason to work their way somewhere closer to the middle of the league and of use to fantasy managers.

While it might not be fair to pin all of the team's offensive woes on just one player, when that player is Will Levis, it's also pretty easy. Amongst the 32 quarterbacks who began 2024 as their team's starter, only Anthony Richardson Sr., Aaron Rodgers, Trevor Lawrence, Bo Nix, and Deshaun Watson finished with a lower completion percentage above expectation rate, per the NFL's Next Gen Stats.

Amongst that same group, only Richardson, Dak Prescott, and Kirk Cousins had a higher turnover-worthy play percentage, according to PFF, and Levis’ 30.4% of pressures that resulted in a sack topped the list.

Unsurprisingly, a season spent misdiagnosing pass rushes and sailing balls over his receiver's heads landed the Titans the number one overall pick, where they didn't hesitate to draft Levis' replacement, Cam Ward. With Levis electing to undergo surgery on his throwing shoulder at the start of training camp, he is now out for the season, taking with him any illusion of a quarterback competition.

In Ward, the Titans have found an imperfect prospect, but his slippery pocket presence and ability to avoid pressure will at least see fewer plays started in an insurmountable hole. As a scrambler, he isn't a blazer, but he keeps his eyes upfield, and with them, plays alive. While he isn't blessed with the strongest NFL arm, he's got a snappy release and can get the ball anywhere it needs to go with just a flick of the wrist.

Why is no one talking about Cam Ward and the @Titans? Cam Ward could do for Tennessee what CJ Stroud did for the Texans. Titans should go from #26 to a top 15 offense in the NFL. Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Okonkwo, Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears give him experienced playmakers. pic.twitter.com/cuD8lpO9wO

— Robert Griffin III (@RGIII) July 22, 2025

All of this should have Calvin Ridley salivating. Saddled with Levis' scattershot arm for most of 2024, Ridley led the league in unrealized air yards and finished 97th in catchable target rate. He also ranked in the top 10 in open rate versus man coverage, consistently winning throughout the year without any reward to show for it. Ward's downfield aggressiveness and off-script creativity could be the key to unlocking Ridley's ceiling, one we haven't fully seen since his pre-sabbatical days in Atlanta.

Tyler Lockett adds nuance to the receiving room, even as he staves off Father Time, and the team took multiple shots at pass catchers in the middle rounds of the draft. Speed merchant Chimere Dike and playmaking tight end Gunnar Helm were both values in the 4th round, and prototypical X-receiver Elic Ayomanor could prove to be one of the steals of the 5th.

Along with fourth-year tight end Chig Okonkwo, who was better down the stretch than most realize (averaging nearly five catches and 48 yards in his final six games), the Titans have enough pieces in place to keep the offense on schedule, allowing Brian Callahan to chase his white whale game plan of actually calling consecutive running plays.

Despite Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears rarely playing at full health at the same time, the Titans had the league's 12th-highest run rate, despite running the seventh-fewest overall plays. During their preseason opener, Spears suffered a high ankle sprain which could put him in danger of missing the opening game of the regular season.

If more of their passing plays can become more than just precursors to a punt, there should be enough rushes to go around to keep both backs relevant, as was the expectation going into last season.

While this offense won't always be perfect, it should at least be fast, fun, and a whole lot less frustrating to watch. There's a rising tide of talent in Tennessee that could buoy the fantasy value of everyone involved.

San Francisco 49ers

As easy as it is to lay the blame of Tennessee's 2024 struggles at the feet of one player, it's just as simple to do with the San Francisco 49ers. Or in this case, less at his feet, and more on his Achilles. No non-quarterback in the NFL matters more to their team's offense than Christian McCaffrey.

While the 49ers still finished in the top five in yards per game in 2024, their 22.9 points per game were good enough for only 14th in the league, down from 28.9 in 2023 (third) and the league-leading 29.8 points per game put up following the trade for McCaffrey before Week 7 of the 2022 season. With CMC on the shelf for most of the 2024 campaign, the Niners' offense looked pedestrian, struggling to finish drives in the red zone.

Even with a slew of playmakers up and down the roster, and a more than capable backfield replacement, it's difficult to overstate the impact and production the 49ers lose anytime McCaffrey is on the sideline. Filling in more than admirably last year, Jordan Mason was second in the league in rushing yards through the first seven weeks of the season.

For context, the 13.8 half-PPR fantasy points per game he put up over that seven-game stretch were 5.4 points fewer than CMC's per-game career average. Put another way, during the best seven-game stretch of Mason’s career, while putting up more yards on the ground than anyone not named Derrick Henry, San Francisco was able to replace only 70% of what CMC has routinely provided fantasy managers.

Of course, the NFL season isn't just seven games long. Not unique to just Mason, most of the 49ers' weapons faded considerably down the stretch, succumbing to injury and ineffectiveness as they were tasked with shouldering more of CMC's Bunyan-esque workload.

So a bet on a 49ers bounce-back is a bet on McCaffrey's return to health – a bet that's been about as all or nothing as any in the game over the past half-decade. Thankfully, what we're seeing out of San Francisco's training camp matches what we're hearing a lot more closely than it did last year.

Leading into the 2024 season, glimpses of McCaffrey were rare as he trotted the globe in search of a treatment for his Achilles tendonitis, but the narrative barely wavered with the Niners telling us he'd be ready for Week 1, causing many a drafter to burn the 1.01. This year, we've already seen plenty of footage of CMC on the field, looking like CMC.

Christian McCaffrey is so back 🔥

(via @49ers)pic.twitter.com/dmDX0ipVeF

— ESPN Fantasy Sports (@ESPNFantasy) July 29, 2025

Even with Deebo Samuel Sr. now departed in free agency and Brandon Aiyuk still recovering from a catastrophic knee injury that threatens to limit his availability well into the midpoint of the season, a return to form from CMC unlocks everything that Kyle Shanahan is looking to accomplish with his wide-zone, play-action-heavy attack.

Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall each showed genuine flashes at times last year, and George Kittle remains a game-breaking tight end, the last of a dying breed with his contributions to both the run and pass game.

Whether it was Brock Purdy in 2022 or Jennings himself last year, the 49ers offense has embodied the next-man-up mentality. Unfortunately, some players can't be replaced. Fortunately, heading into 2025, it doesn't appear that McCaffrey will need to be, and the 49ers offense as a whole should once again rank near the top of the league.

New England Patriots

For the better part of the past two decades, the New England Patriots ran the tightest ship in football, but for the last few years, that ship has looked more like a dinghy. A dinghy with a hole in the bottom, captained by a confused Ensign who lost the map and shattered both oars.

Entering 2025, the coaching staff has been scrubbed clean and replaced with a collection of leaders. Mike Vrabel brings instant stability, and the offensive staff alone features three assistants with NFL head coaching experience.

Drake Maye today

10/13 passing
40 yard TD to Pop Douglas
Completed passes to 7 different receivers

Year 2 Breakout loading... 🚀 pic.twitter.com/mYLUJt0vj9

— Underdog (@Underdog) July 30, 2025

McDaniels returns to run the offense, his offense, with a quarterback whose skillset is unlike any he's been around. At only 22 years old, Drake Maye has drawn praise from teammates and coaches alike for his early grasp of McDaniel's system and control of the huddle. After leaning primarily on an offensive line in 2024, comprised mostly of guys that did not make an NFL team out of training camp, reinforcements are on the way.

The Patriots spent first and third-round picks on hulking left tackle Will Campbell and the most athletic offensive lineman in the draft, Jared Wilson. They also added veteran presences both inside and out in Garett Bradbury and Morgan Moses.

With a return to health from former first-rounder Cole Strange and Mike Onwenu back again as the only serviceable piece from last year's squad, this line has all the pieces in place to play something approaching league-average football, a far cry from the 32nd-ranked unit of last season.

The team added Stefon Diggs in free agency, who, even at nearly 32 years old and recovering from a torn ACL, is the most skilled receiver this team has rostered in at least five years. The home-run capabilities added on Day 2 of the draft, through second-rounder TreVeyon Henderson and third-rounder Kyle Williams, give McDaniels the ability to scheme up mismatches at all levels of the field.

At the same time, early reports from training camp would indicate that fan favorite DeMario Douglas is emerging as the next great Patriots slot receiver, and a Vrabel/McDaniels running game with the three-headed versatility of Rhamondre Stevenson, Henderson, and Antonio Gibson is going to be a nightmare for opponents to scheme against.

With a coaching staff full of teachers guiding what profiles to be one of the youngest offenses in the league, there is genuine excitement building in Foxboro. While there still may be growing pains ahead, for the first time in years, the New England offense is again looking seaworthy, and drafters should be able to find hidden treasures throughout the middle and late rounds.

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