NFL Playoff Bets, Props, and Advice - Championship Sunday

January 23, 2021

Frank Dyevoich breaks down NFL Championship Sunday matchups and gives his top betting picks and advice.

The NFL regular season is over, so fantasy football has largely come to an end. However, the playoffs still offer many opportunities for betting with higher stakes on the line. This year, the playoffs have been busier than ever with the expanded field of 14 teams, and now the race for the title is down to four.

Before we get into my best bets for Championship Sunday, let's recap last week's action.

NOTE: All spreads and lines are from DraftKings Sportsbook, which are constantly changing to reflect the shifts in money wagered.

Divisional Round Recap

Rams v. Packers: Best Bet OVER 45.5 (1-0), 5-4 on Props

We nailed this game all around except for Cam Akers' receiving totals and the surprising zero rush attempts for Malcolm Brown. The game finished 32-18, comfortably over the total and a win on our first Best Bet. Akers easily hit his rushing totals as he finished with 18 carries for 90 yards, but he was hardly used in the passing game, which was upsetting, to say the least. However, Davante Adams swooped in to save the day like the superstar that he is. He went over his receptions total by two, and he cashed the delicious +500 odds for the first touchdown of the game. Lastly, the Packers scored the first points of the game with a field-goal and went on to win the game, cashing our final bet of Packers to score first and win at +104 odds. This game was very good for our wallets. Game two? Not so much.

Ravens v. Bills: Best Bet Bills ML (2-0); 2-4 on Props

Thankfully, we cashed our Best Bet for this game as the Bills gave us a sweat-free victory, dismantling the Ravens 17-3, and keeping our Best Bet streak perfect on the weekend. However, the joy was short-lived as we only hit two of our six props in the game. Lamar Jackson predictably went under his passing yards total for the 12th time this season, but he left the game early and fell way-short of his rushing line. Mark Andrews fell short of his receptions total by one, which was a total slap in the face to prop-bettors because he had 11 targets. It still hurts. Finally, the Bills' total lack of a rushing attack killed us on our final four props, as Josh Allen had a whopping three yards on the ground, failed to rush for a touchdown, and Devin Singletary had a measly seven carries for 25 yards. Thankfully, Singletary caught three balls to save his receptions total, though he should have caught four or five so it was sweatier than it should have been.

Browns v. Chiefs: Best Bet Jarvis Landry OVER 4.5 receptions (3-0); 3-5 on Props

Jarvis Landry easily cashed our third Best Best of the Divisional Round as he finished with seven receptions. However, we were hurt by the props in this game as well. Patrick Mahomes fell short of his touchdowns and passing yards totals since he left the game early with a concussion. Tyreek Hill came through for us on both of his props, but it would have been much sweeter if he would have hauled in the first touchdown of the game. As for the Browns, the only aspect of the game that went according to plan, besides Landry, was the predictable Kareem Hunt anytime touchdown for +145 against his old team. Baker Mayfield only threw for one touchdown, and Austin Hooper might have been the biggest disappointment of the weekend with his dismal two receptions, as he watched David Njoku steal his featured role. As they say, "them's the breaks" in gambling. We move on, and just need to be thankful for our Best Bets, and of course, Davante Adams.

Buccaneers v. Saints: No Best Bet; 1-1 on Props

The Saints had arguably the best all-around team in the league this season, but they choked in the playoffs once again behind Drew Brees' three interceptions. We easily cashed Jared Cook's prop as he finished with five receptions, but the Buccaneers' game-plan stopped us from going 2-0. The Saints' ferocious defense made it difficult for Tom Brady to get the ball to his top playmakers, so he utilized his receiving tight end and his running back to chip his way down the field. Chris Godwin had four receptions in this one, but he fell short of his receiving yards total by 30 yards.

Teaser: 0-1 

We lost this teaser by one point as the Rams lost by 14 and we took them +13.5.

Parlay: 0-1

Saints' loss cost us this one.

Player Prop Parlay: 0-1

Austin Hooper. That is all.

We started off scorching hot after the Packers' victory at Lambeau Field, but the gambling gods must have felt like we made too much money in that one because we finished 14-14 (50% win rate) on single-game wagers, and 0-3 on teasers and parlays. However, the weekend wasn't all bad as we went a perfect 3-0 on Best Bets. We have two weekends left to fatten our pockets before football is done for the season, so let's get into the Championship Sunday slate to find the best bets.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. Green Bay Packers

Spread: GB -3.5 at -109/ TB +3.5 at -112
Over/under: 52
Moneyline: GB -182/ TB +160

The Bets: Cameron Brate OVER 2.5 Receptions -157, OVER 29.5  Receiving Yards -112

I don't love making my Best Bet on wagers with odds worse than -120, but I can't fathom how Brate's receiving lines do not hit, absent an injury. This postseason, Brate has four receptions in each game and at least 40 receiving yards and the reason behind it is why we are going to get paid. These are not random games for Brate where he happened to burn his coverage for a few deep passes, rather they are calculated plays designed to increase his usage in the receiving game because Rob Gronkowski is a far-superior blocker and is needed on the line to protect Tom Brady. The main goal of the Buccaneers this postseason has been to protect Brady at all costs. This means keeping Gronk in to block and using Brate as the receiving tight end option. The Buccaneers should stick to this plan this weekend because the Packers blitz opposing quarterbacks 25% of the time and were top-10 in sacks this year with 41. The rams only gave up 1.8 sacks in the regular season, but the Packers' defensive front sacked Jared Goff four times last week. This week they have their sights set on Brady, and history has shown that the way to beat Brady is by getting pressure and making him uncomfortable in the pocket.

Another reason I love Brate's receiving lines this weekend is that the situation he is in dictates another heavy workload for him. The Packers' secondary is no slouch. They have arguably the best cover corner in the league in Jaire Alexander, who finished first overall in defense and coverage ratings according to PFF. Alexander doesn't typically shadow one opposing wide receiver, but given the threat Mike Evans poses, I would not be shocked if Alexander follows him around. If Alexander does not shadow Evans, he will simply take away whichever receiver lines up on the left, eliminating a receiving option for Brady before the ball is even snapped. Further, Antonio Brown has been ruled out for this game which eliminates another one of Brady's trusted targets, and only leaves Evans, Chris Godwin, and Cameron Brate as his go-to options. Sure, Scotty Miller and Tyler Johnson may catch a few balls, but Brady is going to rely on the guys he trusts the most and Brate is certainly on that shortlist. At the end of the day, I have Brate projected for four receptions for 46 yards.

Other Player Props:

• Davante Adams over 7.5 receptions -152
• Davante Adams over 92.5 receiving yards -112
• Davante Adams First TD +525
• Aaron Rodgers o2.5 passing TDs +124
• Allen Lazard over 3.5 receptions -152
• Aaron Jones over 23.5 receiving yards -112;
• Ronald Jones over 35.5 rush yards -124
• Leonard Fournette o3.5 receptions +126
• Tom Brady over 2.5 passing TDs +165

Bet Davante Adams overs, rinse, repeat. We are also going to take another stab at Adams to score the first touchdown of the game for +525 odds as he has done it seven times this season, including last week. I also love the over 3.5 receptions for Lazard as Rodgers is starting to trust him more, evidenced by his eight targets last week. I am also expecting Aaron Jones to get some more love in the receiving game this week since the Bucs were the number one defense against the run this year, but allowed the most receptions per game to running backs (6.4) and the eighth-most receiving yards per game (42.9). Jones could hit his total of 23.3 receiving yards on one or two plays.

On the other side of the ball, I expect a heavy dose of Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette on the ground since the Packers are allowing 91.6 yards per game, and the duo just combined for 125 yards against the Saints, who allowed only 76.8 yards per game. I am not as confident in Fournette's workload on the ground as I am in his role in the passing game, so we are going to pass on his rushing lines and hit his receptions total at +126 odds. Fournette was targeted six times last week and he should see a similar volume on Sunday. Lastly, I am going to bet that Brady and Rodgers give us some fireworks on Sunday so we are going to take a risk and bet over 2.5 passing touchdowns on both of them. Because, why not?

Buffalo Bills v. Kansas City Chiefs

Spread: KC -3.5 at -104/ BUF +3.5 at -117
Over/under: 54.5
Moneyline: KC -177/ BUF +155

The Bet: Bills +3.5

The Bills will not go quietly into the night. When these two teams faced off in the regular season in Week 6, the Chiefs won 26-17, but these are not the same Buffalo Bills. After their loss to the Chiefs, the Bills only lost one game, and it was on a last-second Hail Mary that only DeAndre Hopkins could have caught. Since Week 6, the Bills are averaging 32 points per game and a 14-point victory over their opponents, so I would not be surprised if they won outright, let alone lost by more than field-goal. The Chiefs are the rightful favorites in this game since they are the number one seed and the home team, but this game will likely come down to the last possession.

While the Chiefs are 15-1 when they play all their starters this season, they are 7-10 against the spread ("ATS") and are only 1-7 ATS over their last eight games. They have been winning, but not by large margins and I don't expect a large victory on Sunday either. On the other side of the ball, when the Bills were on the road they went 6-2 on the money line and 5-3 ATS this season, and now they find themselves as a road underdog on Sunday. I like the Chiefs to win the game, especially with Patrick Mahomes expected to play, but I can't bet the Chiefs to cover -3.5 against the high-powered Buffalo Bills. The line opened at -2.5 with Mahomes' status uncertain, and if it stayed at that line I would be betting the Chiefs, but based on the recent trends and performance of the teams so far this postseason, the smart play here is to take the Bills to cover.

Player Props:

• Tyreek Hill over 5.5 receptions -165
• Travis Kelce over 7.5 receptions -118
• Travis Kelce over 94.5 receiving yards -118
• Stefon Diggs over 7.5 receptions -112
• Stefon Diggs over 94.5 receiving yards -112
• Devin Singletary over 2.5 receptions -182

We are going back to the well with Tyreek Hill this week. In their Week 6 matchup, Hill only reeled in three receptions for 20 yards, but the Chiefs took it to the Bills on the ground in that game rushing the ball 46 times and only passing it 26 times. However, this is the playoffs and the Chiefs are going to get the ball in the hands of their playmakers. Clyde-Edwards Helaire is still banged up and Darrell Williams is not going to get 20-plus carries in this one, so I'm looking for Hill to get a few quick and easy receptions close to the line of scrimmage as an extension of the run game. The short passes for Hill are the reason we are not betting his receiving yards. Kelce on the other hand is an overs machine as he surpassed his receptions and yardage totals in eight of his last nine games, and he only failed to record at least eight receptions once over the same span.

Stefon Diggs has been almost as consistent as Kelce as he caught at least eight receptions in seven of his last ten games and has had at least 100 receiving yards in his last five games in which he played a full complement of snaps. The Bills are not going to be able to take their foot off the gas at any point in this game, so I expect Diggs to see between 11-14 targets. Do not be surprised if he hauls in double-digit receptions on Sunday night. Lastly, we are once again going to hammer the over on 2.5 receptions for Singletary because Zack Moss is out for the season. Last week, Singletary just got over this number in a game where he was hardly used. This week I expect things to swing back to normal with Singletary to see between 10-15 carries and four to six targets. It should be no sweat for him to haul in three passes this time.

7-Point Teaser:

Buccaneers +10.5/Bills +10.5 -157

I like both favorites to win this week, but both underdogs to cover, so to be safe we are going to tease the underdogs spread by seven points so that the only way we lose is if one of them loses by more than a touchdown and a field goal.

Player Prop Parlays:

Cameron Brate/Devin Singletary over 2.5 receptions +154

Davante Adams/Stefon Diggs over 7.5 receptions +215

No matter who wins this weekend, all four teams are high powered and extremely fun to watch, which should lead to two high-scoring affairs and a ton of player production. Best of luck to everyone, and remember, never place a bet you can't afford to lose. Gamble responsibly.

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