RADIO
We’re hitting on strong plays every single weekend, but it hasn’t led to great success for me in DFS. Davante Adams, Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett, Christian Kirk, and Amon-Ra St. Brown were among the hits from Week 13, but it’s always tough getting the pieces together in the same lineup.
Week 14 presents a challenging slate, with just one game above a 46.5-point total (MIN-DET). Will the winning combination come from the slate’s undoubted best game environment, or will a contrarian stack rule the week? Let’s dig in.
Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Joe Burrow ($7000) + Ja'Marr Chase ($7900) OR Tee Higgins ($7000)
Possessing as much upside as any stack option every single week, Joe Burrow stacks have been a staple of this column this season. We are once again going back to the well with Cincy’s passing game in Week 14, as they continue to produce week in and week out.
Burrow has compiled four games this season with at least 30 DraftKings points. Up next is divisional foe Cleveland. The Browns’ last four games have come against the Texans, Buccaneers, Bills, and Dolphins. They surrendered point totals of 14, 17, 31, and 39, respectively. When Cleveland has matched up with great offensive teams (like Buffalo and Miami), they have struggled to contain them.
Hayden Hurst’s calf injury in Week 13 opens up 14.5% of the team’s targets. Instead of those targets going directly to backup tight end Mitchell Wilcox, it’s probably safe to assume Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins soak up the bulk of that vacant production.
The real question we should be asking is what type of approach will Zac Taylor’s team take in attacking Cleveland’s defense. Cincinnati has been a pass-centric team this season, as evidenced by their 5.9% pass rate over expectation, which ranks third highest in the NFL (Establish The Run).
Preferred bring-back: Amari Cooper ($6200)
Leverage piece: Joe Mixon ($6900)
Though Cincy has shown a propensity to stay air-based on offense, it might actually be the ground game that could prove to be the path of least resistance; Cleveland has been graded as the third-worst run defense and second-worst tackling defense in the league by Pro Football Focus. Kevin Stefanski’s team is also allowing 4.8 yards per carry and ranks third in rushing TDs allowed on the year (16).
Fresh off an injury, Joe Mixon could come in with lower ownership than he should. That’s the exact opportunity we need to be looking for in DFS.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jalen Hurts ($8700) + A.J. Brown ($8400) OR DeVonta Smith ($7000)
Philadelphia has been quite a real-life and fantasy football juggernaut in 2022. They have just one loss on their résumé and their QB is second in fantasy scoring behind only the great Patrick Mahomes. Jalen Hurts and this Eagles offense draw the Giants next, a team that is ripe for fantasy picking.
Already down their top cornerback, Adoree Jackson, New York will be tasked with defending the dynamic receiving duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith on Sunday. New York’s weakness has been against opposing ground games (sixth-most rushing yards, sixth-most rushing TDs, sixth-most rushing attempts yielded, and the sixth-worst rushing defense grade from PFF), but they also own the league’s second-worst-graded pass coverage unit.
Translation: Philly should be able to get whatever they want, whenever they want, in Week 14. Nick Sirianni has shown the ability to adjust based on the opposition’s vulnerabilities; in Week 13 against Tennessee, the Eagles struck through the air, throwing 39 times with Hurts versus just 24 rushes. In Week 12, the Eagles bludgeoned the Packers with 49 rushing attempts to just 28 pass attempts. It is anybody’s guess how the Eagles will attack.
Either avenue looks like it will be successful for Sirianni and his offense. Chunk gains on the ground could lead to huge plays via play-action, so Brown and Smith are still very much in play on Sunday.
Preferred bring-back: Richie James ($5400)
Leverage piece: Miles Sanders ($7100)
New York is one of just four teams allowing 5.1 yards per carry or more. Miles Sanders has found paydirt at least once in 7-of-12 games this season. He’s tied for seventh in the NFL in red-zone rushing attempts (29). As the starting running back on a heavily favored offense, he’s a great bet in DFS this weekend.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Geno Smith ($6200) + DK Metcalf ($7100) OR Tyler Lockett ($6500)
Here are Geno Smith’s passing-yardage totals over the last four games: 275, 275, 328, and 367. The ninth-year veteran has been on absolute fire, and a Week 14 matchup with hapless Carolina doesn’t look to be a spot where he’ll cool down.
Tallying multiple touchdown passes in six straight games and 20+ DK points in four straight, it’s an absolute mystery as to why Smith’s price tag on DraftKings is still just $6200, but we’ll take it! Now he gets a 4-8 Panthers squad that hasn’t shown much resistance on defense this year.
Steve Wilks’ club grades bottom 10 in pass coverage and pass rush per PFF. They’ll be tasked with covering the duo of DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett — who have amassed 10 games of 17+ DK points or more this season, and they combined for 60.5 such points just last week.
Kenneth Walker’s ankle injury could hold him out of Week 14, which would be all the more reason for Pete Carroll to crank up the pass rate even further. Smith and his weapons on the outside are cooking, so it would only make sense to continue to air it out.
Preferred bring-back: D.J. Moore ($5500)
Leverage piece: Noah Fant ($3100)
Noah Fant has posted two games of 14+ DK points in his last four outings. He also ran his most pass routes of the season in Week 13 (25) and drew two red-zone targets. He’d be a great leverage piece off of Metcalf and Lockett.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Kirk Cousins ($7500) + Justin Jefferson ($9300) OR T.J. Hockenson ($6500)
Vikings-Lions is the clear-cut best game on Week 14’s slate. With a 52-point Vegas total, it’s hard to see a winning lineup not featuring at least one piece of this game. We’ve been picking on Detroit’s defense all season, and we’re doing so again this weekend with the Vikings.
The Vikings and Lions are the bottom two teams in the league in yards allowed per game. Dan Campbell’s squad ranks as the fourth-worst pass coverage team according to PFF grades, so how will they contend with Justin Jefferson on Sunday? This same Detroit team held Jefferson to a pedestrian 3/14/0 line in Week 3, but you just know he’ll be licking his chops ahead of this matchup.
Jefferson has tallied seven 100-yard games in 2022, and it’s probably a great bet that he’ll reach that mark once again in Week 14. Additionally, he is tied with Stefon Diggs for the second-most red-zone targets in football (21; trailing only Travis Kelce’s 27). Minnesota’s No. 2 option nowadays, former Lion T.J. Hockenson, is set up to produce Sunday as well — as only the Cardinals have allowed more receiving TDs to TEs than the Lions (8).
Preferred bring-back: D.J. Chark ($5700)
Leverage piece: Dalvin Cook ($8700)
Dalvin Cook hasn’t posted a big fantasy score since Week 10, but his playing time has been superb — as he’s played 82.5% or more of the team’s running back snaps in five of his last seven games. He also ranks fourth at the position in red-zone touches with 35. Detroit is still ranked second in rushing TDs allowed, trailing only Chicago. It could be a monstrous fantasy week for No. 4 in purple.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Jared Goff ($5600) + Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7800) AND/OR D.J. Chark ($4300)
When you think of ceiling plays at QB, Jared Goff usually doesn’t come to mind. However, he’s pieced together three games of 24 or more DK points in 2022. His playmakers are back to full health — Amon-Ra St. Brown, D’Andre Swift, and D.J. Chark are all firing on all cylinders. And Jameson Williams is back in the lineup (though we shouldn’t expect huge production yet).
Minnesota ranks ninth in completion percentage allowed at 67.3%. They also rank dead last in yards per attempt allowed at 7.6. D.J. Chark has posted snap shares of 77.9% and 83.8% in the last two weeks, and he compiled 108 air yards and 98 actual receiving yards in Week 13. Chark’s 18.1 aDOT ranks No. 1 (!!!) in the league, and that could prove very valuable in this matchup.
A full-blown alpha, Amon-Ra St. Brown has snared 11, 9, 7, and 10 receptions respectively over the last four weeks. In a game featuring the week’s highest total, at the Coors Field of NFL DFS (Detroit), the second-year USC product should once again eat.
Preferred bring-back: Justin Jefferson ($9000)
Leverage piece: D'Andre Swift ($5800)
D’Andre Swift tied a season-high for touches in Week 13 with 18. He totaled 111 yards in Detroit’s steamrolling of Jacksonville last week. Even though the Lions are favored (somehow, against the 10-2 Vikings) this week, it’s definitely feasible that the Vikings could flip the script and force the Lions into a come-from-behind script. Swift is the back to circle in that scenario, and Minnesota has served up the sixth-most targets and receptions to backs this year.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Mike White ($6800) + Garrett Wilson ($7200) OR Elijah Moore ($5400)
Everybody’s favorite backup-turned-starter Mike White is back at it again in Week 14 against Buffalo. New York’s QB has totaled 24.8 and 19.4 FanDuel points the last two weeks. As a 10-point underdog versus Buffalo this weekend, White’s pass volume could rival that of his 57-attempt performance in Minnesota in Week 13.
White’s clear favorite target has been Garrett Wilson. Across his 85 pass attempts the last two weeks, Wilson has been on the receiving end to the tune of 13 catches for 257 yards and two touchdowns. Buffalo is one of 10 teams to have allowed 12 or more receiving touchdowns by WRs.
Preferred bring-back: Stefon Diggs ($8500)
Leverage piece: Corey Davis ($5700)
Corey Davis saw three red-zone targets and 10 overall targets last week and ended with a 5/85/0 fantasy line. In a game where the Jets will almost certainly be trailing throughout, he makes for a good leverage dart throw against the likely Wilson chalk.
Good luck this weekend! Feel free to contact me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here -- @thejacksonkane.
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