Running Back Matchups to Target in Week 6 - James Cook, Derrick Henry, Kenneth Walker III, more

October 17, 2026

Thunder Dan's favorite RB matchups to exploit for Week 6 of 2026 - DFS running backs to target on DraftKings and FanDuel. These RB matchups are GPP and cash game opportunities.

It's going to be yet another wild main slate of NFL DFS this week. We have a consolidated slate with 10 games, as there is another London game as well as multiple teams on bye this week.

I did things a bit differently this week and addressed the three running backs who are projected to be the most highly-rostered on Sunday first, and I am giving you FIVE pivots as we have a very strong group of runners to choose from this week (check out the chart!)

Also, don't forget this analysis and the data I collect can be applied to prop betting, too! I do betting picks every week, and you'll definitely find some of these players in my betting content as well. Alright, let's get into the matchups already!

Week 6 Running Back Matchups

Back for Week 6, these are my "Thunder Dan Matchup Grades," which incorporate data from both PFF and the DVOA ratings found at FTN. We have FIVE weeks of data now, and larger sample sizes always help our data become more reliable and predictable over time.

Remember, we are not evaluating the backs' elusiveness, explosiveness, or ability to break tackles. We are looking at the quality of their blockers, their offensive schemes, projected role and usage, quality of their opponent, and then finally taking an educated guess on the projected game script for each back this week.

The Chalk

• Bijan Robinson ($8.7K DK, $9.3K FD)
• Kyren Williams ($6.8K, $8.1K FD)
• Rhamondre Stevenson ($6K DK, $6.3K FD)

Rostership projections as of right now (Saturday morning), show these three at the top, in this order. I think all three are great plays, and I might cram all of them into my cash game build. But as I mentioned in the introduction, this is an unusually deep slate at the RB position, so pivoting to other backs in tournaments is going to provide instant leverage.

I think Bijan is the guy I am the most afraid to fade, and I won't be. The Bears rank 30th in rush DVOA defense, and Robinson has the type of ceiling that only Jahmyr Gibbs can match.

Kyren Williams is a much easier fade on FanDuel than DK, but it's certainly possible that the Rams go up big on the Cardinals early and that we get a healthy dose of Blake Corum.

Stevenson is going to get a ton of work against the Jets in what should likely be a favorable game script. But if we are being picky, I don't love that he could now be losing passing-down work to Corey Kiner, who played well last week in that role.

James Cook III ($7,400 DK, $8,400 FD) 

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders

Cook is the top-rated back in my model, ahead of even Robinson. While Bijan is a more dynamic runner, Cook has the better matchup as he runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football in a more prolific offense.

I actually like the under in the Atlanta game, by the way, as both of those teams are run-heavy and play slower. That doesn't mean Bijan won't still smash, but it does mean that Cook is also in what looks like a better game environment (53.5-point total), and he has an equally weak opponent, as the Raiders rank 29th in rush DVOA defense.

The Raiders are dead last in yards allowed before contact (2.1) and 31st in explosive run rate. Uh oh!

James Cook gets the lead back for the Bills 🗣️

@BUFvsLAR on ESPN
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/q5aCA3nQYU

— NFL (@NFL) October 13, 2026

There's been discussion around his fumbles last week, but his coach was quick to walk back his earlier comments, saying that he doesn't want Cook to run more cautiously. I'm not reading too much into it. I'm salivating at the opportunity to roster him at half the ownership of the chalkier options, as I think he has a path to being the highest-scoring back on the slate if he finds the end zone more than once in a projected shootout.

Kenneth Walker III ($8,500 DK, $8,900 FD)

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Walker could be in cash game consideration over on FanDuel, where Williams will be less popular and where touchdowns matter so much more and receptions are less important with half-PPR scoring.

K9 and the Chiefs are rested, coming off the bye, and get the 0-5 Chargers at home. They're currently touchdown favorites, and backs in this type of projected game script often fare quite well.

Walker's 24.8 touches per game is higher than both Derrick Henry and Robinson, and his 92% goal-line carry share has led to five rushing touchdowns. If there were fewer options this week, he'd probably be getting more love, but the game total here (41.5) is considerably lower than the big three spots that everyone wants to attack (CHI-ATL, BUF-LV, and LAR-ARI).

Walker has a receiving touchdown this year, too, and is averaging three catches and 21 yards per game as a receiver. The offense flows through him, and I wouldn't be surprised if he has another big game here with 120+ scrimmage yards and a few scores.

Derrick Henry ($8,200 DK, $9,100 FD)

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns

Henry gets to face off against his former offensive coordinator as the Ravens head into Cleveland for a rather important game for the AFC North standings. The Browns have not been the pushover that we thought they'd be this season as they sit at 3-2 after five weeks; however, they have also not been the stout run defense that they were last year either.

The last four weeks, they've surrendered the following stats to opposing RB1s:

• Bucky Irving: 17-89
• Chuba Hubbard: 19-82
• Jaylen Warren: 17-93
• Braelon Allen: 24-116-1

Enter Henry and a Ravens team that will be without their starting quarterback, Lamar Jackson, again this week. We saw the Ravens lean heavily on Henry last week, feeding him 24 carries for 102 yards, and he scored a touchdown on a screen pass.

Derrick Henry takes the screen pass to the end zone! 👑

@BALvsATL on NBC/Peacock
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/lcACs76ggy

— NFL (@NFL) October 12, 2026

The game plan will likely be similar this week, and Henry has the highest Vegas line on rushing attempts (20.5) on the slate. Expect the Ravens to try to pound the Browns into submission with a heavy dose of the big man.

The last time Henry faced the Browns was in November of last season, and he went for 103 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries, including a 59-yard scamper. Cleveland is 32nd in explosive run rate this year, and last week Braelon Allen was ripping off big chunks at a time. I fear for them, because Henry makes Allen look like a JV player.

It's not hard to see a repeat of that type of performance again, and we know he's quite capable of breaking a slate if he finds paydirt two or three times.

Chuba Hubbard ($6,300 DK, $6,800 FD)

Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

It's been a quick fall from grace for the Eagles, who are now set to start their backup quarterback and running back, and have already traded away a starting offensive lineman. The Panthers are now road favorites in this game and are coming off a bye week and a big win over the Lions in Week 4.

Chuba Hubbard was tremendous in that game against Detroit, running for 122 yards on 20 carries. He's stacked up two good games in a row now as he had 110 scrimmage yards against the Browns in Week 3, too.

The Eagles are right in the middle of the pack in terms of run defense, but they are becoming a run-funnel as their very strong pass rush and secondary often encourage teams to test them on the ground instead. They like to play a lot of nickel personnel, which welcomes teams to attack them with the run game.

The last three backs they've faced have fared quite well, as D'Andre Swift finished with 88 scrimmage yards, Williams went for 147 (and two touchdowns), and Bhayshul Tuten added 96 more last week.

Chuba is a threat on the ground and as a receiver, and has most of the RB touches locked down. Don't sleep on him as a cheap pivot with plenty of upside in this spot.

Braelon Allen ($5,700 DK, $6,200 FD)

New York Jets at New England Patriots

By the way, if Braelon Allen ever reads this, I was just kidding about looking like a JV player! It was meant to be a compliment to Henry, one of the greatest big backs the league has ever seen! Please don't pummel me, Braelon; I am actually a huge fan of your game!

This is a sneaky good spot for Allen, who will serve as the lead back again this week as Breece Hall remains out. The Patriots rank 24th against the run in DVOA, but they rank 30th in line yards allowed, which tells me that opposing offensive lines are opening holes and creating opportunities.

Braelon Allen gives the @nyjets the lead!

@CLEvsNYJ on CBS/Paramount+
Stream on @NFLPlus https://t.co/HRPQHqjGMd

— NFL (@NFL) October 11, 2026

They're also 31st in EPA per rush attempt ahead of only the lowly Colts run defense that was gashed by Jaylen Warren last week (hey, good call by me!).

If the Jets have a chance to compete in this game, it's by running the football and keeping Drake Maye off the field. I think we'll see another 20+ carries for Allen, and he's cheap enough that 75 yards a touchdown could easily pay off his price tag.

Good luck, everyone - and thanks for reading.

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