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Get tonight's NBA first basket predictions from expert analyst Thunder Dan Palyo. He breaks down the latest jump ball stats and player trends to find the best first scorer bets for Tuesday, 3/10.
How many times this season have you tracked a player prop for the entire game, only for the player you bet on to come up one point, assist, or rebound shy of going over or under their prop?
It happened to me twice on Sunday, and again yesterday (thanks, Karl-Anthony Towns), and I bet it's happened several dozen other times during the course of this NBA season.
If you're looking for bets that are a quick sweat and potential early cash with almost no risk of a player getting hurt, ejected, or just underperforming in general, then first basket bets are an exciting way to get some action on NBA games. In this article, I'll provide my favorite first basket bets for the games on Tuesday, March 10th.
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Today’s Biggest Tip-Off Advantages
Determining who to wager on to score the first basket in an NBA game is a multi-step process. Firing off bets on the best offensive players from each team isn't likely the best strategy, as the odds for these bets rarely reflect the actual probability of any given player scoring the first basket.
The first statistic that we can use is the opening tip win rate. The team with the first possession has the best chance of converting the first basket, so targeting the players on the team that is most likely to win the tip makes for a strong strategy.
| Team | Tip Win% | Opponent | Tip Win% |
| Suns | 72% | Bucks | 27% |
| Spurs | 75% | Celtics | 41% |
| Heat | 58.50% | Wizards | 33% |
| Nets | 57.80% | Pistons | 39.70% |
These rates are for the entire team and do not account for the fact that different players have taken the tip for their teams at different points this season.
Our biggest advantage tonight is Phoenix against Milwaukee. I drilled down a bit deeper to see if this advantage is really as good as it looks, since Giannis Antetokounmpo has missed such a large chunk of the season for the Bucks, and I think it really is. Giannis has not participated in the opening tip all season; it's usually been Myles Turner, and he's been quite bad at winning it.
For the Suns, they're likely starting backup big man Oso Ighodaro in the place of injured Mark Williams. That might eat into their advantage a little, but Ighodaro has won four of seven tip-offs that he's participated in this season.
The Spurs have a massive advantage tonight, too, which makes sense given the sheer size of starting center Victor Wembnayama who stands at 7-foot-4 (and who has an incredible standing reach of 9.5 feet).
Miami and Brooklyn are the other two opening tip advantages, though their win rates are far lower than Phoenix and San Antonio. Miami is a huge favorite against a tanking Washington team, while Brooklyn is a big underdog against Detroit, even though they just upset them a few days ago.
RotoBaller Props Tool and Projections
Our RotoBaller Props Optimizer is showing Jalen Smith's player props as among the best values on tonight's slate, if you are looking for some traditional player props on which to wager!
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Best NBA First Basket Props
Most sportsbooks count the first field goal made as the first basket, but FanDuel counts free throws, too. Additionally, DraftKings labels their bets as "first points scorer" but includes only made field goals, so don't be confused! For that reason, I'll be focused on other sportsbooks besides FanDuel since the made free throw angle provides another wrinkle to the whole process.
Jalen Green First Field Goal Scorer (+625 BetMGM), (+517 NOVIG)
As we established, the Suns have a sizeable advantage in winning the tip. We can narrow down their first field goal attempt to either Jalen Green or Devin Booker with quite a bit of certainty. The two have combined to take the first shot for the Suns in 42.5% of Phoenix's games this season.
However, Booker and Green have both missed a lot of games this season. When we drill down a bit further, we can actually see that Green has taken the shot in a whopping 60% of the time in games that he's appeared in, while Booker has taken it 30% of the time. So one of these two players has taken the first shot for Phoenix 90% of the time when Green and Booker are both in the lineup, as they will be tonight.
The odds are higher on Green, possibly because of his lower FG%. He was struggling pretty badly with his shot for a while, but has scored 24 and 25 points in his last two games.
De'Aaron Fox First Points Scorer (+640 DraftKings), (+533 NOVIG)
The Spurs have a great shot at winning the tip, as we discussed earlier, thanks to Victor Wembanyama's massive reach. There was a stretch where Wemby wasn't starting for the Spurs, which can throw off our data a little bit, but I took a closer look at the first field goal attempts from the games that he DID start before making my pick here.
Wemby has started 53 of the Spurs' 64 games this season, and it's been Fox who has taken the first shot for the Spurs the most often (34%) in those games. He converted the first basket in the only meeting with Boston this season, though that was a game where Luke Kornet started, not Wemby - for full transparency.
The Spurs like to get Wemby involved early, but Boston is a good defensive team and is likely to anticipate this as well. Meanwhile, Fox is a tough cover for opposing guards with his ability to slash to the hoop or knock down perimeter shots. Again, we are getting better odds on Fox here than Wemby, by quite a large margin, so I'm going to back Fox and try to hit at the higher odds.
Remember, if we hit even one of these bets tonight, assuming we bet evenly on all of them, we end up with a profit!
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Bam Adebayo First Points Scorer (+370 DraftKings), (+381 NOVIG)
We went with some longer odds on the first two picks, so here's a "chalkier" pick for tonight. Bam won the tip against Alexandre Sarr in the team's first meeting earlier this season and has been a focal point of the Miami offense lately, especially early in the game.
The Heat have rolled off five straight wins, and have gone to their big man on the first possession in the last three games straight. One of those possessions ended up in a turnover, but in the other two games, Bam converted the first basket for Miami.
His 27% first shot attempt rate this season dwarfs everyone else on the Heat roster and has produced a massive 20% first points scorer rate. Washington has been manhandled by big men all season, so it's a great matchup for Bam tonight.
While we would normally worry about a blowout possibly affecting his ability to hit his full-game props, we don't have that concern here! Just make that first shot, big fella, and we can enjoy the rest of the game sweat-free!
Noah Clowney First Points Scorer (+980 DraftKings), (+1036 NOVIG)
My last bet is a long shot! Noah Clowney has yet to make a first basket this season, but that's part of the reason why we are getting amazing odds! Hear me out on this one.
Clowney is second on the team in first shot attempt percentage (13.7%) behind Michael Porter Jr. (21.6%). If we think that Nicolas Claxton can win the tip against Jalen Duren, then Clowney could easily be the first Nets player to hoist up a shot.
He attempted the first field goal in the Nets' win over Detroit on Sunday (though he missed), and he also took (and made) the first Nets' shot attempt against the Pistons when they met back in November. However, it wasn't the first basket, since Cade Cunningham scored for Detroit on the opening possession.
Clowney clearly has the green light to fire away and a history of shooting early against Detroit. I would never say "he's due" to make one, but the math backs up that assertion since he's taken the second-most first shots on the team without making one yet. Positive regression, here we come!
NBA Betting Tools and Resources
Don't forget to utilize all of the NBA DFS and betting tools we have here at RotoBaller! The NBA betting landscape changes by the minute throughout the day, so stay up to date with the latest odds and market values with our NBA DFS and betting tools and projections.
- NBA Betting Props Finder Tool
- NBA PrizePicks Props Finder Tool
- NBA Sleeper Props Finder Tool
- NBA Betting Picks Tool
- DFS Matchup Ratings and Projections
- NBA Injury Report
Thanks for reading, RotoBallers, and good luck if you are tailing our bets tonight!
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