NBA Draft: Biggest Surprises

Andrew Ericksen analyzes the most surprising draft picks from the 2021 NBA Draft, including the Raptors drafting Scottie Barnes.

With the 2021 NBA Draft in the books, it’s now time to shift from binging draft speculation articles to binging draft landing spot articles. And I for one am extremely happy and eager for this article to be part of your binging tour.

This year’s draft was absolutely loaded at the top, but things got really, really interesting once the marquee names were off the board. The range of players from the mid-to-late lottery to the end of the first round was ranked very differently from one big board to the next. It was extremely unclear how NBA teams valued some of the international players in that range and some of the younger, more raw prospects in that range.

Well. Now we finally have our answers to that predicament. The draft was filled with twists and turns. Below are the five biggest surprises that shook up the lottery.

Scottie Barnes to the Raptors

The first surprise of the night came when the Raptors selected guard/forward Scottie Barnes fourth overall. The overwhelming majority of basketball pundits had considered this year’s draft to have a clear “Big Four” at the top. Jalen Suggs was the last remaining player of that “Big Four,” but the Raptors chose to divert from the expected “easy” pick.

The Barnes pick makes a ton of sense for the Raptors. He’s a versatile, high-IQ player who can guard 1-through-4 and he has a jovial spirit that will help him be a fantastic culture builder with a team in a bit of a transition. Suggs offers a few of those things as well, but the fit personnel-wise was more of a question. Suggs is going to be a primary point guard for a franchise as soon as next year and point guard is arguable the Raptors’ strongest position. It’s likely that Kyle Lowry is going to be signing elsewhere, but the team still has star point guard Fred VanVleet under a massive contract for the next two years with a player option for a third as well as backup point guard Malachi Flynn, who looked fantastic at times during his rookie year. Flynn averaged 14.9 points and 5.5 assists per game over 14 games as a starter.

Barnes will play on the wing for the Raptors and should see a variety of responsibilities as soon as this year. He and OG Anunoby should make up for a formidable defensive pair on the wing. Barnes’ versatility also allows the franchise to have some flexibility in terms of how they continue to assemble the team going forward.

Josh Giddey to the Thunder

There weren’t a ton of names mentioned as potential targets for the Oklahoma City Thunder at pick #6 on Thursday. Barnes would have been the favorite if he had fallen. If not, Jonathan Kuminga seemed like a prototypical Thunder pick and James Bouknight seemed like another strong option as a buzzy pre-draft riser (more on that soon).

Instead, the Thunder went with 6’7” Australian point guard Josh Giddey. Giddey is one of the best passers in this year’s draft class and is easily the tallest of that elite passing group. He profiles to be a potential triple-double threat on a good night if he can reach his potential. Last year in the Australian NBL, he averaged 10.9 points, 7.5 assists and 7.4 rebounds per game.

Giddey will join a Thunder roster filled with a number of intriguing young players, but with few who have firmly risen above the pack. The best of the bunch – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander – was dangled out in front of every franchise in the top four of the draft as trade bait for the Thunder to move up, but there were no takers. So for now, Giddey will join a backcourt consisting primarily of SGA, Luguentz Dort and Theo Maledon. The team also has Kemba Walker under contract but like SGA, they are actively trying to trade the former All-Star.

Giddey bears a bit of a resemblance to 7’0” forward Aleksej Pokusevski, his soon-to-be-teammate who was drafted 17th overall last year. Like Giddey, Pokusevski has a rare combination of passing and size and neither player is a standout athlete. They could be a fun combination to watch together, but there’s an equally likely chance that their lack of athleticism could prohibit them from playing beside each other often.

Ziaire Williams to the Grizzlies

The Memphis Grizzlies acquired the 10th overall pick in this year’s draft in a trade with the New Orleans Pelicans earlier this week. The trade sent Jonas Valanciunas to New Orleans with Steven Adams and Eric Bledsoe going the opposite way. The Pelicans also received picks #17 and #51 this year and the Grizzlies also received pick #40 this year and a 2022 top-10 protected first-rounder from the Lakers.

The player who the Grizzlies wound up drafting with pick #10 was a player who many pundits believed would have still been available at their original pick, #17. That player was 6’8” forward Ziaire Williams out of Stanford.

Williams was one of the more divisive players in the draft. He was a consensus five-star recruit out of high school and was ranked as the #5 overall recruit in his class by 247Sports. His lone season at Stanford was a strange one that included the team’s shortened schedule and his own bouts with injuries.

Williams stands 6’8” and has some guard-like qualities to him, somewhat reminiscent of his soon-to-be-teammate Kyle Anderson. However, Williams might have a ways to go before he’s much of a difference-maker on an NBA court. That’s what mostly makes the pick such an eyebrow-raiser. The Grizzlies are a team on the rise and they could be a dangerous playoff team as soon as next year. Their biggest need going into the draft was a wing, where Williams should eventually slot in. However, taking someone who could have helped them more immediately like Chris Duarte, Moses Moody, Trey Murphy or Corey Kispert might have seemed more practical at this point.

The James Bouknight Fall and Landing Spot

James Bouknight out of UConn was one of the most talked-about expected risers of the past few weeks. He’s an electric guard who looks like a Zach LaVine clone in just about every way.

Bouknight had been rumored to be a target for the Magic at #5 and he was also one of the favorites to go sixth to the Thunder or seventh to the Warriors. Instead, he dropped to #11, where the Charlotte Hornets took him.

The Hornets’ biggest need going into the draft was a big man. Cody Zeller and Bismack Biyombo were the team’s primary centers last year and both are unrestricted free agents this offseason. Kai Jones and Alperen Sengun were two of the names frequently linked to the team and both certainly would have made a bit more sense personnel-wise than Bouknight.

LaMelo Ball is the new face of the franchise. Last year, he split ball-handling duties with Terry Rozier and Devonte' Graham. Rozier has one more year on his contract while Graham is an unrestricted free agent. Bouknight will play behind Rozier as a rookie, but he should see a massive increase in playing time once Rozier is gone.

Bouknight and Ball could develop into one of the league’s most explosive backcourts. However, on the flipside, passing on a big man this year could really hurt the team’s balance in the next few years. Ball’s going to need at least one or two strong pick-and-roll counterparts at center to be able to reach his true potential. The team acquired Mason Plumlee on draft night and he should help next year, but the 31-year-old might not have a ton a pick-and-rolling left.

Joshua Primo to the Spurs

With the 12th pick in this year’s draft, the San Antonio Spurs absolutely stunned draft watchers by taking Alabama guard Joshua Primo. While he was a trendy sleeper for several pundits out there, most mock drafts and big boards had Primo targeted somewhere near the end of the first round. With Moody, Sengun and Murphy still available, Spurs fans were certainly a bit taken aback when Primo’s name was called.

Primo is a 6’6” guard who has the chance to be a dynamic scorer in the NBA. He was the youngest player in the NCAA last year and had an uneven season, averaging just 8.1 points per game on 43.1% shooting. Needless to say, he’ll be a bit of a project for the Spurs. However, the fit definitely makes sense once you start breaking things down.

The Spurs have some very talented young guards and wings locked up for several years, most notably Dejounte Murray, Derrick White, Keldon Johnson, Devin Vassell and Lonnie Walker IV. However, none of those players project to ever be elite scorers. If Primo can live up to his potential, he could be the team’s go-to scorer or at least their No. 2 scorer while the others do more of the “dirty work.” The Spurs don’t appear likely to be going on any deep playoff runs in the next year or two, so taking a flyer on Primo seems to compute with their general timeline goals.

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